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Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcells used to say 60 percent of the quarterback position is intangible.
He might have been understating.
Unlike arm strength, athleticism, mobility and accuracy, intangibles are immeasurable. Because of this, quarterbacks are chronically misevaluated.
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It’s common for NFL evaluators to see quarterback intangibles as they would like them to be — especially when those evaluators are desperate in need. Need drives quarterback selections more than at other positions, so tangible qualities often overwhelm evaluations. That’s why Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf and many others were drafted higher than hindsight says they should have been.
The 2024 quarterback class has been hailed as potentially one of the best in history. Six players — LSU’s Jayden Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and USC’s Caleb Williams — could be chosen before the second round begins. But history assures us not all six will play up to expectations. Immeasurables will be the likely reasons.
The Athletic spoke to eight NFL talent evaluators to understand how these players’ immeasurables are perceived. The immeasurables were broken down into football character, toughness, poise and processing. The sources were granted anonymity and asked to rate each player in each category on a 1-5 scale, with five being the best. Then each player was given a cumulative score.
Football character was defined by leadership, willingness to sacrifice, coachability, competitiveness, conscientiousness and work ethic. Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott are examples of NFL quarterbacks who have excellent football character.
Physical and mental toughness was considered. Physical toughness is tied to the willingness to endure punishment and the ability to block out pain. Someone who can deal well with adversity is mentally tough. When a player has “scarring,” in the jargon of NFL scouts, it’s easier to judge mental toughness. Two of the standards for toughness in today’s game are Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
Poise was defined by how a quarterback deals with pressure, whether in the pocket or the world. No one has more poise than Joe Burrow.
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As for processing, scouts were asked to consider how a quarterback sees the field, helps receivers get open and anticipates defensive strategies. Aaron Rodgers is the king of processing.
What’s interesting—and probably predictable—is the eight scouts had varying opinions. Immeasurables are more prone to subjectivity than measurables.
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How the class is perceived five years from now will be determined by immeasurables.
Here is how the NFL front office people viewed the six players in order of cumulative score.
1. J.J. McCarthy, 137.5 points
In football character, McCarthy had a perfect score, which made him the only prospect with a perfect score in any category.
Scout 1: “He’s a football junkie who’s always in the building. He does more than what’s asked of him, working on his own. Coaches are confident in him and give him control with audibles and checks.”
Scout 2: “He studies his rear end off.”
Scout 3: “The players love him, and so do the coaches.”
Everybody loves a winner, and there is no disputing McCarthy is one, having won a national championship at the age of 20. Of the 65 games he started spanning six years (two at Nazareth Academy, one at IMG Academy and three at Michigan), he has lost three times.
Michigan wasn’t as reliant on him as other teams were on their first-round prospects, which is why some are skeptical. It isn’t so much that scouts see potential flaws as they haven’t seen as much as they would like.
Scout 4: “In that system, it’s a lot of play action, so he wasn’t asked as much as the others.”
Scout 2: “With what they asked, he did well, but he was well protected behind five offensive linemen who might play in the NFL. They blew a lot of people out, so he wasn’t under a lot of pressure to make rushed decisions and didn’t have a lot of opportunities to make critical third down and red zone throws.”
Scout 5 said the lack of throws was a non-issue for him because McCarthy did so well with the throws he made. One pointed out that in the three years Jim Harbaugh coached Andrew Luck at Stanford, Luck finished 79th, 37th and 40th in pass attempts. Luck had 122 more attempts than McCarthy in their college careers.
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Scout 2 believes McCarthy processes the game better than the other five and said he was calm amid chaos on the field.
Scout 2: “He ran that offense the way he will do it in the NFL, more than the others. He shows you he can go from his first read to second to third, on both sides of the field, while operating from the pocket.”
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Scout 3: “He was a good point guard who put the ball in others’ hands to make plays. But he was impressive at the Michigan pro day and showed he could make big-time throws that he wasn’t asked to make in games.”
Two of the people polled thought McCarthy was the toughest of the group, even though he hasn’t been tested by serious injury. At Nazareth Academy, he played in the Illinois high school state championship game with a fractured thumb. “He takes body blows and never flinches,” Scout 6 said.
Scout 7 said he is more comfortable with McCarthy’s physical toughness than mental toughness. McCarthy has been open about experiencing depression and having ADHD. One way he copes is by meditating at the foot of a goal post before games. Some could hold that against him, but most see strength in how he handled it.
Scout 3: “He has embraced it and dealt with it well. It wouldn’t scare me off.”
Scout 5: “I like that he got help and knows how to help himself and work through things.”
2. Jayden Daniels, 136.5 points
Four scouts said if they were drafting a quarterback with the first pick, they would take Daniels, who finished only one point behind McCarthy. “I’m a huge fan,” Scout 8 said. “He’s my favorite.”
Daniels received the most points for poise and processing and the second most for toughness.
Scout 7: “You never saw him frenetic or frantic. He made good decisions. … You can see his eyes going through the progressions, going where they are supposed to go.”
Scout 5: “He knows when to take off and when not to, as opposed to Caleb (Williams), who takes off sometimes because it looks cool. Jayden is chill.”
Scout 1: “He didn’t get rattled. He delivered under duress.”
If anyone should have gotten rattled, it was Daniels. Scout 2 said Daniels weighed 181 when he transferred from Arizona State to LSU and played in the 190s. He increased his weight to 210 in the offseason.
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Scout 5: “He’s tough, but he was so skinny that it was scary. He took major shots.”
Scout 8: “He gets beat up, and that’s a concern, but he has great resiliency.”
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The resiliency wasn’t just physical. Daniels struggled at Arizona State. When he announced he was transferring, teammates trashed his locker and disparaged him. But he took advantage of a fresh start, making a performance jump one scout equated to the one Burrow made in his final season at LSU after transferring from Ohio State. Daniels quarterbacked the team that led the country in scoring and won the Heisman Trophy.
Scout 2: “He had to win over an entire locker room at LSU after it didn’t end well at Arizona State, and he did it.”
Scout 1: “Some people wouldn’t come back from the struggles the way he did.”
Daniels was voted a captain at LSU, but the scouts aren’t as certain about his ability to lead as they are with McCarthy and Maye.
Scout 7: “My only question is whether he’s an outgoing leader who can resolve conflict in a locker room. But everybody likes him.”
Scout 1: “He has a quiet confidence, but he’s not an alpha guy who always is in the building.”
Scout 3 believes Daniels has improved as a leader. He pointed to how hard he worked to put on weight and how he shared NIL benefits with linemen.
Two of the scouts were critical of Daniels’ approach at the NFL combine. He didn’t work out — not unusual for a prospect of his stature — but he also declined to be measured and left early for what he said was a family event.
3. Drake Maye, 130.5 points
There were interesting contrasts in Maye’s scores. He had the most points for toughness and the second most for football character but came in last in poise and processing.
Maye competes the way you’d expect from a coach’s son and the youngest of four highly athletic boys. Scout 3 calls him “uber competitive.” Scout 2 compares him to Philip Rivers in his zealousness.
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Scout 5: “He’s been beat up good and he can take it.”
Scout 6: “He wants to be great. He’s a high achiever, and he understands what it takes. He’s wired the right way.”
Scout 1: “He’s a junkie in the film room. He loves ball. He gets it.”
Scout 7: “Teammates love him. He’s a tough country kid who works hard and is smart.”
Maye was named academic all-conference twice, but that doesn’t always show in football decision-making, according to the scouts. In defense of Maye, he was better in this area in 2022 than in 2023, when he didn’t appear as comfortable in the Tar Heels’ new offense, scouts said. His supporting cast also wasn’t as supportive.
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Scout 8: “He held the ball too long and took more sacks than necessary in 2023. Under pressure, he sprayed the ball some.”
Scout 6: “He gets sped up more than the rest of them and misses the most throws as a result. He missed a lot of open guys when he was under pressure.”
Scout 1: “He was a tick slower in 2023. You could see him starting things down a little.”
The fact that Maye was better in 2022 than 2023 gives hope that he can elevate from his most recent performances. There also was concern about his ability to deliver in clutch situations, however. Of Maye’s 16 interceptions, 12 came in second halves.
4. Michael Penix Jr., 128.5 points
Scouts believe Penix’s mental and physical toughness is special. A three-star recruit who committed to Tennessee, Penix had his offer pulled after a coaching change and had to find a new school late. At Indiana, he suffered four season-ending injuries in four seasons. Then he transferred to Washington and played his best football.
Despite having torn the ACL in his right leg twice, he keeps his eyes downfield, the scouts said. His injury history is a cause for concern, but how he’s dealt with setbacks might offset it. Penix has more “scarring” than any of the quarterbacks, which makes scouts more comfortable in their evaluations. None of the scouts said Penix was a medical reject for their teams.
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Scout 1: “He just kept coming back, which is a testament to him. He was healthy this season and has learned how to take care of himself. He puts in a lot of time working on his body.”
Scout 3: “Despite being banged up, he stands tall in the pocket.”
Penix was rated highly by scouts for processing. He was in a more advantageous situation than most, having played in one offense for most of his career. Kalen DeBoer was his offensive coordinator at Indiana in 2019 and then his head coach at Washington for the last two years.
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Scout 1: “Being in that system for so long helps him process. It’s allowed him to play more freely. He knows where the ball should go against different defenses, and he delivers it on time.”
Scout 8: “He sees the field really well as the play develops. That’s why he’s able to do what he does at the second and third levels. But in the NFL, he’ll have to make reads more quickly and get it out on the first level.”
Penix also was helped by the talent around him. Scout 5 believes Penix had five players to throw to who can play in the NFL — wide receivers Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan and tight ends Jack Westover and Devin Culp.
Scout 4: “Having three wide receivers who will be taken in the first two rounds can impact a lot of things.”
Scout 5: “They are good at scheming guys open. He’s got guys running wide open all the time, so he doesn’t often have to go to his second or third read.”
Four scouts noted that Penix is better in the pocket than when trying to throw on the move. “He struggles more when he’s under pressure or off schedule than the others,” Scout 8 said.
Penix is a two-time captain who will be 24 in May and comports himself that way.
Scout 7: “He’s a quiet leader who teammates love. I really liked him, too.”
Scout 2: “He has an ability to connect with teammates. He’s a good worker, not great.”
Scout 6: “He might not be the most overtly confident guy, but he was able to lead elite players at Washington.”
5. Bo Nix, 125.5 points
Nix has been battle-tested, having played five years of college ball and improved significantly after transferring to Oregon. A five-star recruit out of high school who could have gone anywhere, Nix chose Auburn, partly because his father played quarterback there and it was close to home. But it didn’t go how he hoped as he played for three offensive coordinators in three years and the team went 14-12 during his tenure.
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Scout 3: “When he struggled early, he didn’t respond well. Fans wanted to hang him. He talked back to critics and came across as egotistical. He was immature. But he’s shown he’s matured at Oregon.”
Scout 7: “He showed toughness with the adversity he had at Auburn. They didn’t want him there at the end, but he fought through it.”
There is also reason to believe Nix is physically tough. “He’s had a bunch of injuries, but he keeps coming,” Scout 3 says. He takes some shots and bounces back up. He plays through bumps and bruises. He’s prideful in being available. You can see the passion.”
Nix was a captain one year at Auburn and two years at Oregon. Scouts understand why.
Scout 1: “He’s always in the film room, always working out. He understands multiple offenses and can talk ball. He does more than what’s required and takes care of himself.”
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Scout 2: “He’s a connector and leader who won over teammates in two totally different situations. He’s very mature and probably has the most stereotypical quarterback makeup. His dad is a coach. He’s married. He’s an all-American kid.”
Nix finished with the fewest points in the poise category. He played in a zone-read system heavy on predetermined throws, so talent evaluators are trying to project how he will process in a pro-style system.
Scout 8: “He checks down a lot. When he gets it out quickly, he’s at his best. The longer the play goes, the more concerning it gets. But he has improved.”
Scout 2: “When everything is clean like it usually was, he can be lights out. With pressure, or when the read isn’t quite as sharp, his tendency is to bail backward or sideways and not drive forward. In the NFL, you have to push forward.”
Scout 1: “When things shift on him, he holds the ball too long. If it’s clean, he’s fine and can put it in the right spot. My biggest question is whether he will be able to adapt when the picture changes.”
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Scout 3: “He’s always been a little fidgety. But he improved this year.”
Scout 5 saw Nix’s processing a little differently than others.
Scout 5: “He doesn’t take a lot of chances or push it downfield, but he takes care of the football, which is why he had 45 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. You can see him changing protections more than the others and communicating. He looks off safeties. He’s very effective at sliding and moving in the pocket. He’s really impressive on the run, keeping his eyes downfield.”
Scout 8: “The game has slowed down for him.”
6. Caleb Williams, 124 points
If we ranked quarterbacks by that which is measurable, Williams would be first, and it might not be close. His tangible qualities are similar to Mahomes’. But Mahomes’ intangibles are off the charts — the combination is why he is so special.
“Patrick plays with so much poise,” Scout 6 says. “Caleb does it inconsistently.”
Case in point — over the last three years, Williams fumbled 33 times. Mahomes has fumbled four more times with 1,637 more touches over seven NFL seasons.
Four of the eight scouts rated Williams last overall in immeasurables and three rated him next to last. What should be noted is most of the scouts didn’t speak dogmatically about Williams’ intangibles. Most expressed uncertainty or less certainty than they felt about the others.
If it’s your grandfather’s quarterback you’re looking for, Williams is not it. He doesn’t play like a traditional quarterback, he doesn’t express himself like a traditional quarterback, and he isn’t a conformist like a traditional quarterback. Williams has been criticized for painting his fingernails and crying in his mother’s arms in the stands after USC lost to Washington. That raised questions about his toughness.
Scout 2: “I think his toughness has yet to be determined. He’s had a red-carpet runway experience at every stop and hasn’t had much to overcome. But when you end up sobbing in your mom’s arms after getting beat, that’s a disqualifier for people who aren’t picking in the top few picks.”
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Scout 3: “It wasn’t easy trying to get information on him. You had to dig. Everyone tries to protect him, which leads you to wonder what they are trying to hide. If he has been banged up, we don’t know. We saw him take some good hits and come back, though. He’s a little odd and eccentric, and he was difficult to deal with at the combine.”
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Scout 7: “I think the crying incident was more frustration. He’s a competitor and he doesn’t quit on plays. I’d say he is extremely tough.”
Scout 8: “He takes hits and gets up, and he’s handled a lot of pressure well. What makes him a four instead of a five for me in toughness is how he shows some disappointment with his body language. He buries his head in a towel and doesn’t always act the way you’d hope after the game.”
Scout 1: “He’s one of the tougher quarterbacks. He’s fought through the criticism and noise.”
Scout 6: “He didn’t handle the season great. I would have liked to have seen him come back strong after the loss to Notre Dame. The season fell apart for them after that. He doesn’t stand in there as much as I’d like.”
Williams’ reluctance to stay in the pocket could be attributed to processing issues, a lack of confidence in his blockers or a predisposition to run. He stayed in the pocket less in 2023 than in 2022.
Those who believe in him praise him for his off-schedule ability. Those who question him wanted to see more within the confines of his scheme.
Scout 4: “I think he can play in the pocket, go from 1-2-3 and see it. He isn’t always asked to do it, but I think he can throw with anticipation. A lot of times, he left quickly because he could. He can get away with things because he’s so talented. He’s a little skittish, though. And toward the end of the season, he lost some confidence.”
Scout 7: “He thrives in chaos. He processes outside the system better than inside. But in the pocket, he doesn’t see it right away.”
Scout 1: “There is room for growth in his willingness to stand in the pocket and process. It will come with time.”
Scout 8: “He’s a big-play specialist. But holds on to ball too long and doesn’t get it out on time.”
Scout 3: “The reason he was sacked 83 times in his career is he doesn’t step up in the pocket. If it gets noisy, he drops back and does crazy things you can’t do in our league.”
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If Williams were a wide receiver or a defensive end, his personality wouldn’t be as much of an issue. But as a quarterback, he is expected to be the one teammates follow and customers cheer for.
Scout 4: “He may have been enabled at USC. But he loves football.”
Scout 2: “Between series, he wasn’t a guy who went up and down the bench to talk to teammates. They had to come to him. I thought he operated in a bit of a silo. But teammates do speak highly of him.”
Scout 1: “Teammates have nothing but great things to say about him. His relationship with (USC coach) Lincoln Riley is strong. He’s always in the building. He takes care of himself.”
Scout 7: “The strength coach at USC raves about his work ethic, says it’s off the charts. All the players there follow him and love him.”
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of J.J. McCarthy, Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire, Ryan Kang, Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)
