Are we heading for World War Three?

Iran would be forced to build nuclear weapons if Israel threatens its existence, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned. "There will be no choice but to change our military doctrine", said Kamal Kharrazi on Thursday,  in "the case of an attack on our nuclear facilities by the Zionist regime."

The comments have "raised questions about what Iran has long claimed is a peaceful nuclear programme", reported Al Jazeera.

Despite nuclear weapons being declared "haram" – forbidden in Islam – by Khamenei in the early 2000s, Israel and some Western intelligence agencies have long believed Iran intends to increase its uranium enrichment programme to allow it to develop a nuclear arsenal.

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Tensions between Iran and Israel reached a new high in April, after seven people, including two Iranian generals, were killed in an Israeli strike on Iran's embassy in Damascus. Tehran responded with an unprecedented airstrike on Israeli territory.

There were fears Israel would retaliate by bombing military and nuclear facilities inside Iran, insiders told The New York Times, but after pressure from the US, UK and Germany, they "opted for a more limited strike", which "avoided significant damage, diminishing the likelihood of an escalation, at least for now".

Middle East

For decades, Israel and Iran have been engaged in a "shadow war" said Foreign Affairs. Attacks by Iran's proxy groups have been part of wider efforts by Tehran to oppose Israel, end its war in Gaza and supplant the US (and, to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia) as the foremost power in the Middle East.

Iran's first direct military attack on Israel in April changed changed the "strategic reality" of the region, said The Wall Street Journal's Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent.

Iran's attack signalled a "new phase", Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli government analyst teaching at Reichman University, told Trofimov. Tehran is no longer "hiding behind proxies". 

If the US were to get drawn into a confrontation with Iran it could "divide, perhaps permanently", the Western democracies that would back Washington (such as the UK), and those who "might sensibly prioritise renewed diplomatic outreach to Tehran", said Simon Tisdall in The Guardian in January.

Another concern, Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at Crisis Group, told the Financial Times in February, is that "Tehran will turn to another avenue to up the stakes with the US – its nuclear programme".

Russia

Russia's invasion of Ukraine was described as "more dangerous than anything Europe has seen since the end of World War Two" by Politico in March 2022, then a matter of weeks into the conflict.

It has triggered the "worst crisis in Russia's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis", said the Daily Mail. "Even talk of a confrontation between Russia and Nato – a Cold War nightmare of leaders and populations alike – indicates the dangers of escalation as the West grapples with a resurgent Russia 32 years after the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union."

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that failure to fend off Russia's aggression could spiral into confrontation with Nato. "And that certainly means the Third World War," he has said.

In March, a Russian cruise missile violated Nato airspace less than a week after Putin warned that a direct confrontation between Russia and the Western military alliance would be "one step away from a full-scale World War Three", said Time.

If Putin remains "undeterred" in Ukraine, he will "almost certainly try his luck" in the Baltics, said Dominic Waghorn, Sky News's international affairs editor – "because he will assume the alliance is too spineless to stop him". That view would likely be reinforced if Donald Trump were to carry through with his threats to pull America out of Nato if he wins the US presidential election in November.

China

It has long been assumed that the greatest threat to geopolitical stability is the growing tension between China and the US in recent years, most notably, over Taiwan and the question of its sovereignty.

Beijing sees the island nation as an integral part of a unified Chinese territory. It has, in recent years, adopted an increasingly aggressive stance towards the island and its ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it has denounced as dangerous separatists, but who won an unprecedented third term earlier this year. At the same time, the US has ramped up its support – financially, militarily and rhetorically – for Taiwan's continued independence.

While most experts agree an imminent escalation is not on the cards, Beijing and Washington have become "desensitised" to the risk these circumstances pose, and in the "militarization of foreign policy and the failure to grasp the full significance of that militarization, the pair are one accident and a bad decision removed from a catastrophic war" said Foreign Policy.

Any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times last April. It would "make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".

Human costs aside, a military conflict between the world's two biggest economies would lead to "a severing of global supply chains, a blow to confidence and crashing asset prices", said The Guardian's economics editor Larry Elliott. "It would have catastrophic economic consequences, up to and including a second Great Depression."

North Korea

Since talks with Trump in 2019 broke down over disagreements about international sanctions on Pyongyang, Kim Jong Un has "focused on modernising his nuclear and missile arsenals", said Sky News.

In his New Year's Eve address, he warned that the actions of the US and its allies have pushed the Korean peninsula to the brink of nuclear war. And he announced that the hermit kingdom had abandoned "the existential goal of reconciling with rival South Korea", said The Associated Press.

"We believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker wrote at 38 North, a website that tracks developments on the peninsula.

Alongside its military development, Kim has been "chumming up to Russia and remaining on the right side of China", said The Times's Asia editor Richard Lloyd Parry.

This has "added greatly to tension on the peninsula", said Lloyd Parry, and increased the chances of so-called miscalculation – "where one side assumes that the other is about to attack, and goes first".