Stay cool: Copious monsoon ahead
Adequate rainfall can support agricultural activities, leading to better crop yields
Though April was super dry, weathermen hold out hope for rain
TheIndia Meteorological Department ’s (IMD) long-range forecast predicts a favourable south-west monsoon this year. Earlier, private forecaster Skymet had also predicted a good monsoon. Last year, IMD predicted an average monsoon, while Skymet predicted deficient rainfall . Now, with both government and private forecasters predicting a favourable monsoon, fingers are crossed as drought conditions are currently aggravating the water crisis .
The IMD report said, “The forecast for the upcomingsouthwest monsoon season in 2024 looks promising, especially for regions across India that heavily rely on monsoon rainfall for agricultural activities , water resources, and overall economic stability. There’s a high probability of above-normal rainfall during the season, with a likelihood of 61 per cent for rainfall exceeding 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). This means that there’s a good chance of experiencing more rain than usual, which could be beneficial for various sectors and communities.”
water reservoirs , support crop growth, and maintain ecological balance. The LPA for monsoon rainfall across India is around 87 cm, based on data spanning from 1971 to 2020. The forecast indicates that this year’s rainfall is expected to be around 106 per cent of the LPA, with a small margin of error of ± 5 per cent.
“Several factors contribute to these optimistic predictions. Currently, there are moderate El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However,climate models suggest that they are likely to weaken and transition to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early monsoon season. Subsequently, La Nina conditions are expected to develop during the second half of the season. These are often associated with increased rainfall, especially in regions like India that are influenced by the Indian Ocean monsoon.
Moreover, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Oceans, is currently in a neutral phase.
However, forecasts indicate a potential shift towards positive IOD conditions later in the southwest monsoon season. Positive IOD conditions are typically favourable for enhanced monsoon rainfall over India. These combined influences of transitioning El Nino conditions to La Nina and potential positive IOD conditions indicate a conducive environment for above-normal rainfall,” the report said.
Another contributing factor is the observed snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere during the winter and spring months of 2024. Reports indicate that the snow cover extent has been below normal, which historically correlates with increased rainfall during the subsequent Indian summer monsoon.
Meanwhile, an update from Namma Karnataka Weather on platform X said, “Bengaluru is among the worst performers with a -100 per cent deficit. On average, Bengaluru receives 4 days of rain in April. It hasn’t happened so far. The pre-monsoon quota is ~180mm, and the city’s score this year has been a dismal zero.”
A water expert said, “Adequate rainfall can help replenish water reservoirs, ensuring a stable water supply for drinking, irrigation, and industrial purposes. It can also support agricultural activities, leading to better crop yields and food security. Additionally, increased rainfall can contribute to environmental sustainability by replenishing groundwater levels, supporting biodiversity, and mitigating drought conditions.”
The
The IMD report said, “The forecast for the upcoming
Historically, the southwest monsoon has played a crucial role in India’s economy and livelihoods. The monsoon season, which typically lasts from June to September, brings much-needed rain to replenish
“Several factors contribute to these optimistic predictions. Currently, there are moderate El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However,
Moreover, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Oceans, is currently in a neutral phase.
However, forecasts indicate a potential shift towards positive IOD conditions later in the southwest monsoon season. Positive IOD conditions are typically favourable for enhanced monsoon rainfall over India. These combined influences of transitioning El Nino conditions to La Nina and potential positive IOD conditions indicate a conducive environment for above-normal rainfall,” the report said.
Another contributing factor is the observed snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere during the winter and spring months of 2024. Reports indicate that the snow cover extent has been below normal, which historically correlates with increased rainfall during the subsequent Indian summer monsoon.
There’s a high probability of above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which could be beneficial for various sectors and communities
Meanwhile, an update from Namma Karnataka Weather on platform X said, “Bengaluru is among the worst performers with a -100 per cent deficit. On average, Bengaluru receives 4 days of rain in April. It hasn’t happened so far. The pre-monsoon quota is ~180mm, and the city’s score this year has been a dismal zero.”
A water expert said, “Adequate rainfall can help replenish water reservoirs, ensuring a stable water supply for drinking, irrigation, and industrial purposes. It can also support agricultural activities, leading to better crop yields and food security. Additionally, increased rainfall can contribute to environmental sustainability by replenishing groundwater levels, supporting biodiversity, and mitigating drought conditions.”
