Game #18 Preview: Rodón vs Kikuchi

After a very solid win last night, the Blue Jays will look to make it two in a row against the visiting Yankees tonight. Gametime is once again set for a 7:07 ET start.

Blue Jays’ Starter

Yusei Kikuchi heads to the mound for the fourth time this season, and he’s looking to continue the success that he has found thus far. Through 15.2 innings, he has a 2.30 ERA which is supported by a very strong 2.84 FIP. He is doing an excellent job getting strikeouts, thanks in part to an uptick in velocity to start the season, but his command is perhaps getting hurt a little bit by it. He has walked 10.8% of batters this season, two percentage points higher than his career average.

One thing Kikuchi is doing really well so far is limiting home runs. He has allowed just one so far this year, which gives him a home run rate that is over 1 less per 9 innings than his career average. While it doesn’t seem sustainable at all, his HR/FB is a lot closer to league average now, so it may not be horribly out of line. But more home runs will come, so hopefully the strikeouts can also keep coming.

Yankees’ Starter

The Yankees will counter with a hard throwing lefty of their own in Carlos Rodón. Like Kikuchi, Rodón has had three strong starts to begin the year, and has thrown 15.2 innings. Rodón comes into play today with a better 1.72 ERA, although that comes with a much rougher 4.56 FIP. After a rough year in his first turn in the Bronx last year, Yankee fans are probably quite happy with the 1.72 ERA, but there also has be to concern that he still looks closer to the guy who put up a 6.85 ERA in 2023 as opposed to the guy who put up a 2.88 ERA in 2022.

Perhaps the biggest concern for Rodón in the early going is the lack of strikeouts. He came into the season with a career strikeout rate over 26%, but it is down to just 18.8% so far. The walks are also up, and overall he’s generating numbers that are closer to some of his rougher earlier seasons with the White Sox.

Blue Jays’ Lineup

With Rodón on the mound, the Jays are going to be loaded with right handed bats. Daulton Varsho is probably the only one that will be in there, out in CF. Otherwise expect to see Davis Schneider in LF, Ernie Clement at 3B and Isiah Kiner-Falefa at 2B.

Danny Jansen is expected to make his season debut today. His presence back on the roster should be a boost in many ways, including for the pitchers, for Alejandro Kirk and a reduced workload, and for the lineup to have some more power. The Blue Jays have the fourth fewest home runs in baseball this year, with only Daulton Varsho hitting any out during this current 3 game winning streak.

Yankees’ Lineup

Chris Bassitt did a great job chewing through the lineup yesterday, doing as good of a job as I have ever seen of confusing batters and locking them up. Kikuchi won’t be able to have that kind of success, but he can still find success against this good hitting group regardless.

There are likely to be a few changes to the lineup today. Austin Wells got the start behind the plate last night, but expect to see Jose Trevino back there today. Aaron Judge got the start at DH yesterday to give him a night away from the turf. He’ll be back in CF, which pushes Grisham back to the bench and will get Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup.

Otherwise expect to see Anthony Volpe and Juan Soto ready to strike again from the top of the lineup in front of the barrage of 32+ year old middle of the order bats, with some more pesky guys behind them. It’s a nearly fully healthy group right now, avoiding some key injuries, which is going to be their biggest opponent all year.

Yesterday’s Heroes

Jose Miranda went 3-4 with a home run, driving in 2 and picking up the Monster Bat award. His output wasn’t enough though, as his Twins still fell to the Orioles 7-4.

The Cubs and Diamondbacks played to 11 innings yesterday, a good way to build up some WPA for players, especially pitchers. That’s where Keegan Thompson shined last night, pitching a scoreless 10th and 11th innings to pick up the win and hold it down. He gets the WPA King trophy with a .767 mark as the Cubs won 3-2.

Aaron Nola pitched into the 8th inning yesterday, allowing 1 run on 4 hits and a walk, striking out 9 to take home the Pitcher of the Day award. He ultimately got a no decision though, as the Phillies bats were held silent as well, ultimately pulling out the 2-1 win over the Rockies in 10 innings.

Find the Link

Find the link between Jose Trevino, Thurmon Munson and Elston Howard.

Stats retrieved from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant