Flop that could trigger huge trade; ‘championship or bust’ team: NBA playoffs pressure gauge
The NBA’s play-in tournament is here, with the possibility that one of the league’s superstars in LeBron James and Steph Curry could not feature in the playoffs.
But before eight teams from the Eastern and Western Conference try to keep their championship hopes alive, foxsports.com.au has assessed just how much pressure every franchise is under heading into the postseason.
Factoring in expectations, recent playoffs success and failure along with the state of their salary cap and impending contract calls, each team was rated from 1 to 10.
Don’t miss the best of the first round NBA Playoffs LIVE on ESPN available on Kayo New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial Today >
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Boston Celtics — 10/10
It seems like the majority of people have locked in the Celtics for the Finals, such is both their dominance in the regular season and the sorry state of the rest of the Eastern Conference. But there still are a few sceptics, wary of backing Boston in too strongly considering what has happened the past few years. Namely, blowing a 2-1 lead against the Warriors in the 2022 Finals and then falling to the Jimmy Butler-led Heat in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. This is a different Boston team with Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis while someone like Derrick White has been a genuine difference-maker at stages this season. It makes it that much harder for teams to game plan around simply getting the ball out of either Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown’s hands. It makes the Celtics, who finished the season No.1 in offensive rating and No.2 in defensive rating a seemingly unstoppable juggernaut. But that is exactly the reason why there is so much pressure to go all the way this time around. How Tatum performs in particular will help answer whether the supermax he is poised to sign this summer, which could be worth over $300 million, is worth it.
2. New York Knicks — 4/10
The injury to Julius Randle was a gut punch that makes it hard to envision them going all the way to the Finals, although the Knicks have been the kind of team all season that doesn’t go down without a fight so it isn’t out of the question. Still, unlike previous years, there doesn’t seem to be the same level of expectation heading into the playoffs for New York, potentially because when healthy this team has proved it is capable of pushing any team in the NBA. It eases the pressure on the Knicks to go big-name hunting this summer too, given it is realistic that they could run it back with the same group and hope for more injury luck, otherwise Randle, Bojan Bogdanovich and Mitchell Robinson are the kind of pieces who could be central to a potential trade.
3. Milwaukee Bucks — 9/10
Fortunately for the Bucks, they were able to agree to a three-year, $186 million contract extension with Giannis Antetokounmpo before the start of the season. If he hadn’t, you can just imagine how much pressure would be on Milwaukee heading into the playoffs. Still the pressure is on the Bucks to get to the Eastern Conference Finals given the starpower in their roster, headlined by Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. If not, it is likely most of the blame will fall on coach Doc Rivers, who has struggled to generate any real consistent play since taking over Adrian Griffin while it seems like he is coming under scrutiny after every press conference for dodging self-accountability in some fashion. Lillard too is under pressure to perform after being traded to Milwaukee with the hope of finally being in a position to compete for a title. The Bucks are built to win right now but with an aging roster, who knows how much longer they will be in this position, even with Antetokounmpo’s future settled.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers — 9/10
Things have not been pretty since the All-Star break and entering the playoffs off a game where you were booed by your own fans isn’t exactly ideal. But that is exactly what happened after Cleveland, resting Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Caris LeVert, lost to Charlotte.
With it, the Cavs avoided a potential first-round match-up with the No.7 seed Philadelphia but now find themselves on the same side of the playoffs brackets as the Celtics. Given how the regular season finished, it is hard to see Cleveland going far in the playoffs. That is a problem given Mitchell is set to enter the final guaranteed year of his current contract next season should the Cavs not secure a contract extension for him this summer. NBA insider Marc Stein reported this month that there is a “growing belief among rival teams” that Cleveland will be “forced to trade” their superstar guard if the franchise cannot come to terms on an extension. It comes after a report from Joe Vardon of The Athletic in February on the “deep, psychological effect” Cleveland’s first-round exit against the Knicks last playoffs had on the team, adding “Mitchell’s decision on a contract extension likely [is] tied to how good he thinks the Cavs can be”. A repeat of last year’s swift playoffs failure could see Mitchell turn his attention elsewhere and could put the spotlight on coach J.B. Bickerstaff too.
5. Orlando Magic — 1/10
Sure, you never want to take for granted being in the playoffs. But the Magic have a bright future and this is only the start. Regardless of how far Orlando goes, this season was a big success and unless the Magic collapse dramatically in the postseason, there won’t be any real pressure heading into the summer.
6. Indiana Pacers — 2/10
Another team that is young and ahead of schedule. Indiana has had Milwaukee’s number this season, so it wouldn’t be a shock for the Pacers to push — and potentially eliminate — the Bucks in the opening round of the playoffs. But even if they don’t, a solid enough showing where they don’t get swept should be enough to consolidate what has been a positive season for a Pacers team that booked its first trip to the postseason in four years, led by Tyrese Haliburton.
7. Philadelphia 76ers — 6/10
An Eastern Conference Finals appearance has eluded Philadelphia for some time now, with the Sixers qualifying for the playoffs for six straight years without ever making it past the semifinals. With that in mind, there is always going to be some level of pressure on the 76ers and specifically reigning MVP Joel Embiid to prove they are genuine contenders. However, Philadelphia’s decision not to chase a big name before the trade deadline means the Sixers are loaded with ammunition to go star chasing in the summer. With that in mind, the 76ers have room to improve next season, especially if Embiid can stay healthy. Of course, if Philadelphia somehow didn’t even make it out of the play-in tournament or was eliminated in the first round it would be a massive disappointment. But the silver lining of what is to come in the summer would at least help ease some of the pain.
Don’t miss the best of the first round NBA Playoffs LIVE on ESPN available on Kayo New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial Today >
8. Miami Heat — 5/10
Surely they can’t do it again? This Heat team doesn’t look to have the consistency the make another unlikely run to the NBA Finals after a regular season that never really hit any heights. Of course, you can never rule out the possibility of ‘Playoff Jimmy’ taking over, and it hadn’t helped the Heat either that they dealt with lingering injuries that tested their guard depth. Ultimately, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of external pressure on Miami to replicate last year’s magical run, but just how far the Heat go could have implications on Jimmy Butler’s future with the team. The 34-year-old, who has two years and $100 million left on his current deal, is eligible for an extension this summer. To a similar extent, the Heat — should they make it to the playoffs — will also get an extended look at whether the Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier combination will work moving forward after injury-interrupted seasons.
9. Chicago Bulls — 1/10
Perennial play-in tournament contenders and nothing more. This is what the Chicago Bulls are right now and that doesn’t look like changing after another middling season. There is little pressure on Chicago because, frankly, there aren’t really any expectations on this Bulls team to do much in the postseason. Instead, the bigger priority for Billy Donovan needs to be working out what this team looks like moving forward given the development of Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu, especially when considered alongside the headache that is Zach LaVine’s contract and where potential free agent DeMar DeRozan fits in the timeline.
10. Atlanta Hawks — 1/10
Like the Bulls, there isn’t much pressure on Atlanta given the fact the Hawks also finished the regular season with a losing record and hence shouldn’t really be a threat to do anything in the playoffs. With such low expectations comes an opportunity to overachieve or, at worst, only further push the front office towards trading either Dejounte Murray or Trae Young in the summer. It seems to be the direction the franchise is heading, with NBA insider Marc Stein reporting the Hawks are “likely” to trade either of their star guards this offseason.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oklahoma City Thunder — 2/10
Like the Magic, Thunder fans can just enjoy the fact they find themselves in this position, sitting on top of the Western Conference with a young core that will only get better and a multitude of draft picks to build on this season’s success. Unlike Orlando there are more expectations that come with finishing the top seed and a potential first-round match-up against the Lakers would be particularly tough. But even if the Thunder went out in that scenario, it would at least help crystallise the changes OKC needs to make in the offseason, should the size mismatch be exposed.
2. Denver Nuggets — 7/10
A similar situation to the Celtics, although to a lesser extent given Boston’s record is far superior and the Western Conference is much more competitive. With that in mind, it would hardly be shocking to see the Nuggets rolled in the semifinals. Still, the assumption for most of the regular season has been that the Celtics and Nuggets are on a Finals collision course and anything less than that would be a disappointment for last year’s reigning champions.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves — 6/10
After making a blockbuster trade for Rudy Gobert, things didn’t go to plan for Minnesota last season, struggling for chemistry before drawing the unfortunate straw of having to play the eventual champions Denver in the playoffs. This season though things are different and with that comes higher expectations. It is not championship-or-bust as the Timberwolves have young players in Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels to build their future around, but they at least need to show they are heading in the right direction. That makes the semifinals a bare minimum, although the Conference Finals are a realistic goal too.
4. Los Angeles Clippers — 9/10
After giving up assets for James Harden, the Clippers are light on for future draft capital should this version of the team not go deep into the playoffs and, potentially, win a title. That has to be the goal after all, with Harden the third best player on a roster that features Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Russell Westbrook. George could become a free agent this summer and a standout postseason run would put him in a strong position to either leverage the Clippers for more money or become the hottest available name on the market. Regardless of which decision he makes, Los Angeles can’t take for granted the position it finds itself in right now, entering the playoffs with all four of its star players healthy. With an aging roster and limited draft capital to work with, there is plenty of pressure on the Clippers to make it count now. In a stacked Western Conference though, the path to a title is tricky.
5. Dallas Mavericks — 6/10
There is always a decent level of pressure when you have Luka Doncic. He alone has been enough to single-handedly win Dallas games before, although this time around the Slovenian superstar has plenty of help in the form of Kyrie Irving and trade deadline additions Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. It only adds to the pressure for the Mavericks to at least get past the first round of the playoffs, having made genuinely positive moves to bolster their roster and build around Doncic with the goal of taking a swing at the title. The Mavericks ended the regular season with a 16-2 record to wrap up the fifth seed before resting their stars. It also means there will be high expectations for a deep playoff run, although the pressure isn’t as high given they have key players under contract for a few years to come while Gafford and Washington will have the summer to further integrate themselves into the team.
6. Phoenix Suns — 10/10
Well, avoiding the play-in tournament was definitely a step in the right direction because not even making the playoffs in the first place would have been an abject failure for the Suns. Still, Phoenix enters the postseason as one of the most under-pressure teams after going all-in once again last year in a trade for Bradley Beal. Like the Clippers, the Suns have traded away most of their future draft capital, not owning or controlling a first-round pick until 2031. Adding depth to the roster next season will also be tough as Phoenix is over the second-apron ($182.5 million of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement), meaning the Suns don’t have access to the Mid-Level Exception or Bi-Annual Exception and will only be able to add free agents through minimum contracts.
There is at least now the guarantee of sharpshooter Grayson Allen staying put after news the Suns have extended him on a four-year deal worth nearly $70 million.
Royce O’Neal is another key piece Phoenix could lose and, again, only be able to replace with minimum players. ESPN’s NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski said on NBA Countdown in March that the reality of the salary cap puts “tremendous pressure” on the Suns to pay those players and keep them. “Suns owner Mat Ishbia has operated with a relative disregard for the new salary cap realities of the NBA, essentially in a championship or bust mentality over the next couple of years,” Wojnarowski said. This year’s playoffs could go a long way to deciding whether it works out or not.
7. New Orleans Pelicans — 5/10
The Pelicans have to be one of the most confounding teams in the league right now. At one point this season they looked like pushing for the top seeds in the Western Conference but dropped four straight games in early April before suffering a 124-108 loss to the Lakers on Monday. A win would’ve kept New Orleans out of the play-in tournament but now the Pels need to go about it the hard way. If anyone is under pressure entering the postseason it is Zion Williamson, who has never played in a playoff game and will be looking to rebound from the disaster that was New Orleans’ in-season tournament thumping at the hands of the Lakers. It will also be interesting to see how the Pelicans deal with their lack of elite center play against the top teams and what impact it has on the future of Jonas Valančiūnas, who is headed towards free agency. With all of that in mind, New Orleans still looks like a playoff team but not a genuine contender and if there is any question mark it is less on the team’s biggest names and more on coach Willie Green and his rotations.
8. Los Angeles Lakers — 5/10
LeBron James could become a free agent this summer, although the focus for the Lakers superstar has always been getting the chance to play with son Bronny. With that in mind, even if Los Angeles doesn’t replicate last year’s playoffs run or crashes out of the play-in tournament, results alone won’t be the only determining factor in James’ decision. The other question mark for the Lakers is what they do with D’Angelo Russell, who has a $18.69 million player option for the 2024-25 season, which he would surely decline given the level he has been playing at. Complicating matters is the fact The Athletic’s Jovan Buha reported multiple sources believe the Lakers will go “third-star hunting” this summer. All of this is to say it will be an intriguing summer for the Lakers and perhaps a deep playoff run could convince the front office a third star isn’t necessary, or alternatively postseason results may only highlight shortcomings in the roster that make another high-level scorer a must. Either way, there will always be some level of pressure on the Lakers given the James factor and their popularity in the league, but it isn’t championship-or-bust as has been the case in the past.
Don’t miss the best of the first round NBA Playoffs LIVE on ESPN available on Kayo New to Kayo? Start Your Free Trial Today >
9. Sacramento Kings — 3/10
The Kings were one of the fairytale stories of last season. But that was last year. Now they have somewhat regressed while the rest of the Western Conference has improved, meaning the Kings may not even make it to the playoffs this time around. Again, there isn’t too much pressure because this is a young team who weren’t really widely expected to build on last season’s success. In fact, most people seemed to be tipping them to fall back a bit. That in itself is a problem though and speaks to the fact Sacramento at this stage looks like a solid play-in tournament team who could snag a first-round series but not much more. Whether that prompts the front office to make a big swing in the postseason remains to be seen. But a swift exit this year should at least prompt the Kings to consider what the ceiling is for the roster as currently constructed.
10. Golden State Warriors — 3/10
Another team, like the Lakers, who are under pressure primarily on name value and nothing else. It is clear that the Warriors are in a transitional period and coach Steve Kerr has accepted it too, giving the team’s younger players like Trayce Jackson-Davis and Brandin Podziemski a chance to push for more minutes while experimenting at times with Klay Thompson’s role. If anything, the pressure is on Thompson to prove he can still be a difference maker as the Warriors prepare to make a call on his future with the team. Maybe this is the last time we see Thompson, Draymond Green and Steph Curry on a court together in Golden State colours. Even if that is the case though, it no longer seems like that reality would be the undoing of Golden State or leave the Warriors in a worse position than they find themselves in right now. In fact, it was only once Kerr embraced youth that the Warriors started to improve and there are no indications at this stage that Curry is unhappy or wants out of Golden State if there is no playoff run this year.