Odds a first-round WR busts? Plus, the top three WR prospects

For every Ja’Marr Chase, how many Kevin Whites are there? I charted 13 years of data to find the hit rate of first-round WRs in the NFL. It’s similar to how I charted top-10 QBs, but the hit rate is lower than I expected here.

This year, three WRs are considered top-10 picks — Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze — and six are in the top 32 of The Athletic’s consensus draft rankings.

More on those three prospects below, but first, let’s look at the hit rates of every first-round WR since 2011.

To sort stars, busts and everything in between, I looked at four criteria:

1. Starts: Was the player good (and healthy) enough to start at least 50 career games?
2. Production: Did he post two 1,000-yard seasons?
3. No. 1 option: Has he seen 150-plus targets in any season?
4. Paid: Did his team pick up his fifth-year option?

Players were sorted into four categories: Superstars hit all four criteria, stars satisfied at least two, a reach hit at least one and busts satisfied none. Anyone with fewer than four seasons saw their numbers projected. You can find other notes on the process here.

The numbers were worse than I expected:

Drafting a first-round WR is hard, and the hit rate here is historically lower than other positions. There’s a 63 percent chance of drafting a bust or a reach. Think of a reach as a serviceable starter who should’ve been drafted three rounds later, like Tavon Austin (No. 8 in 2013, 21 spots ahead of DeAndre Hopkins) or Mike Williams (No. 7 in 2017).

Your first-round WR typically busts. Out of every three WRs drafted, one has been a bust, like Jalen Reagor, infamously drafted by the Eagles in 2020 at pick No. 21 — one spot ahead of Justin Jefferson.

The odds of landing a superstar are low. Less than one of every five WRs drafted in the first-round hit each criteria. The No. 27 pick in 2013, DeAndre Hopkins, checked every box, as has 2018’s No. 24, D.J. Moore.

The good news? Drafting a WR in the top 10 made teams more likely to at least land a star, like Amari Cooper (No. 4 in 2015).

The bad news? The historical hit rate for a top-10 WR is barely over 50 percent (52.9).

1. First-round WR talent comes in waves. In 2014, two superstars — Mike Evans and Odell Beckham Jr. — were drafted first round, together with a star in Brandin Cooks.

In the following three years, thirteen WRs were drafted in the first round. Over half were top-15 picks. This led to zero superstars, eight of the 13 were busts, and only one, Amari Cooper, became a star.

2. Every first-round WR is fighting the odds, even the top-10 picks. With six players at this position worthy of first-round selection this year, the bust/reach rate of 63 percent makes it likely that three or four of them disappoint.

What Dianna’s Hearing:

Jaguars DE Josh Allen agreed to terms on a massive five-year, $150M deal that keeps him in Jacksonville for the near future. The chatter for weeks was Jacksonville would get this done for one of their best players, and now it’s official.

Back to you, Jacob.

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Ravens GM Eric DeCosta is optimistic despite losing so many players in free agency: “We’re just really getting started.”