Advertisement

What is the OKC Thunder's best path to the 2024 NBA Finals?

Justin Martinez, The Oklahoman
·4 min read
1

The OKC Thunder hasn't made it past the first round of the NBA Playoffs since 2016.

But the Thunder can end that drought this season. OKC is the No. 1 seed in the West, and it'll begin its playoff run by hosting Game 1 of the first round on Sunday at an undetermined time.

The Thunder will learn its opponent once the play-in tournament concludes on Friday. But here's the best possible path for OKC to reach the NBA Finals:

More: Back in NBA Playoffs, how is OKC Thunder dealing with time off before Sunday's opener?

First round: Sacramento Kings

Kings guard De'Aaron Fox is one of the tougher players in the league to stay in front of.
Kings guard De'Aaron Fox is one of the tougher players in the league to stay in front of.

OKC should like its chances if it faces Sacramento, which would have to beat Golden State on Tuesday and then beat the loser of New Orleans and the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday to get the No. 8 seed.

OKC and Sacramento split the four-game series in the regular season, but the Kings are now short-handed. They're without Malik Monk (knee) and Kevin Huerter (shoulder), who are averaging a combined 25.6 points per game.

Sacramento would still put up a fight. Domantas Sabonis is a handful to contain down low, especially on the glass. And even though OKC has good perimeter defenders such as Lu Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, De'Aaron Fox is one of the tougher players in the league to stay in front of.

But Sacramento is already experiencing a down year offensively. And without Monk and Huerter, two key floor spacers, it won't have enough firepower to keep up with OKC.

Worst-case scenario: OKC shouldn't want to face the Los Angeles Lakers, who've won 12 of their last 15 games. They have experience, an elite rim protector in Anthony Davis and, of course, LeBron James.

More: OKC Thunder is back in NBA Playoffs, but which play-in team would be scariest foe?

Conference semifinals: Los Angeles Clippers

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) tries to get past LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) during an NBA basketball game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. The Thunder won 129-107.
Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) tries to get past LA Clippers guard James Harden (1) during an NBA basketball game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024. The Thunder won 129-107.

On paper, Los Angeles is one of the most dangerous teams in the league.

The Clippers have a Big Three of Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden. They have high-level bench players such as Russell Westbrook and Norman Powell. They have a head coach in Tyronn Lue who's great at making mid-series adjustments.

But Los Angeles is entering the postseason with health concerns. Leonard (knee) has missed the Clippers' last eight games, while Harden (foot) has missed three of their last four games.

The Clippers can be dangerous if they stay healthy. But if the other option is facing a red-hot Dallas team, OKC should be content with taking its chances against Los Angeles.

Worst-case scenario: Nobody wants to face Dallas, which has won 12 of its last 15 games. The Mavericks have an elite scoring duo in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and their defense has improved since they added Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington at the trade deadline.

More: How to buy OKC Thunder tickets for 2024 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center

Conference finals: Minnesota Timberwolves

Jan 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball around Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) in the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 20, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball around Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) in the first half at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Aside from the obvious answer, which is a play-in team reaching the conference finals, Minnesota is the best matchup for OKC.

It would still be a battle. The two teams split their four-game series in the regular season, and three of those games were decided by two possessions or less.

Minnesota has the best defensive rating in the NBA thanks to guys such as Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels. It also has a lethal offensive weapon in Anthony Edwards, who averaged 31.6 points in the playoffs last season.

But just look at the other options. Denver is the defending champion. And if Phoenix reaches the conference finals, that means everything has clicked for a team that has Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

Give me Minnesota. It'll be tough, but at least OKC has the speed to control the pace and a pick-and-roll game with Gilgeous-Alexander that'll cause problems for Gobert.

Worst case scenario: The worst-case scenario is the Denver Nuggets. The defending champions are led by Nikola Jokic, who's about to win his third MVP in the last four seasons. No thanks.

More: OKC Thunder's Mark Daigneault voted NBCA Coach of the Year

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder is back in NBA Playoffs: What is best path to NBA Finals?