Kicking off Wednesday’s NHL slate is a Central Division tilt with the St. Louis Blues hosting the Chicago Blackhawks. St. Louis is unsurprisingly a massive favorite, but it's the total of 5.5 that has caught my attention.
Find out how my NHL picks are attacking the total in my Blackhawks vs. Blues predictions for this April 10 tilt.
Blackhawks vs Blues prediction
My best bet
Under 5.5 (+110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Goaltender Petr Mrazek is confirmed to start between the pipes for the Chicago Blackhawks, and it really can’t be overstated how tremendous he's played this season given the product in front of him. Through 53 appearances in the crease, Mrazek boasts a .908 SV% and 3.01 GAA.
He's now allowed two or fewer goals in four consecutive starts, posting a commanding .952 SV% and 1.78 GAA over that stretch. There were five or fewer total goals scored in all four of those outings.
This success is likely to continue against the St. Louis Blues, a team Mrazek has dominated throughout his career with a .924 SV% and 2.12 GAA across 11 appearances between the pipes. Seven of those 11 games saw five or fewer total goals scored, including the most recent meeting when the Hawks claimed a 3-1 win over the Blues at the United Center.
That low-scoring affair was also a product of two struggling offenses. This season, both teams rank in the Bottom 10 of the league in goals scored per game, shots on goal per game, and power-play percentage.
Positive regression is unlikely for either group as they both also rank in the Bottom 10 in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Finally, goaltender Jordan Binnington is slated to guard the cage for St. Louis, and he should be able to keep up with Mrazek.
Through 55 appearances between the pipes, Binnington is 28-20-4 with a tremendous .911 SV% and 2.88 GAA. He was also in net for that 3-1 loss to Chicago, and I believe we will see a similarly low-scoring game on Wednesday evening.
Blackhawks vs Blues same-game parlay
Under 5.5
Blackhawks +1.5
If we are backing a low-scoring affair, then the probability of Chicago keeping this game close increases. First, a tighter-scored game naturally increases the probability of the Under cashing.
But, secondly, the main way the Hawks stay in this game is through the efforts of Mrazek, very similar to their win against St. Louis back in December. Any time the Blackhawks stay in games, it is almost always due in large part to the efforts of their netminder.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Blackhawks vs Blues odds
Blackhawks vs Blues live odds
Blackhawks vs Blues opening odds
- Puck line: Chicago +1.5 | St. Louis -1.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +198 | St. Louis -229
- Over/Under: Over 6.0 | Under 6.0
Blackhawks vs Blues moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- I don’t think the market will move this number too much since, even though Chicago is terrible, the Blues shouldn’t be laying -250 against anyone
- The total opened at 5.5 or six, depending on the book
- However, I think there is more value in Under 5.5 at +116 than the Under 6 at –115
- The Over/Under is 3-7 over the past 10 meetings between these two teams
Blackhawks vs Blues trend
There have been five or fewer total goals scored in each of Mrazek’s past five starts. Find more NHL betting trends for Blackhawks vs. Blues.
Blackhawks vs Blues game info
| Location: | Enterprise Center, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-10-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSCH+, BSMW |
Blackhawks vs Blues latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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