Things have changed from our first mock draft of the season.
The Buffalo Bills’ trade of Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans has only intensified the team’s need at wide receiver. How will General Manager Brandon Beane address that need? What will be the impact of every other team knowing the Bills need a receiver? Those are questions that will be answered in a couple of weeks.
With the first couple waves of free agency now behind us, it’s a good time for The Buffalo News’ first mock draft of 2024. Here is a look at how things may play out next month.
Until then, here is The Buffalo News’ second mock draft of the season – highlighted by a bold move up the board by Beane.
1. Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams, QB, Southern California. About as close as a sure thing as there can be at this point in the pre-draft process.
2. Washington Commanders. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. Not quite as sure a thing as Williams going No. 1, but Maye remains the betting favorite to go No. 2.
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3. New England Patriots. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. The first (moderate) surprise of the first round, as McCarthy leapfrogs LSU’s Jayden Daniels to be the third quarterback off the board.
4. Minnesota Vikings (projected trade with Arizona). Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. Daniels doesn’t have to wait long, as the Vikings trade a pair of first-round picks this year (No. 11 and No. 23), a fourth-rounder (No. 108) and their first-rounder next year to position themselves for Daniels. In the process, history is made as the top four picks of the draft are all quarterbacks for the first time.
5. Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Los Angeles Chargers). Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. Armed with three first-round picks – No. 11, No. 23 and No. 27 – after their trade down, the Cardinals have plenty of ammunition to move back up, and do so by sending No. 11 and No. 27 to the Chargers for the fifth pick. With it, they take Harrison, who just might be the most talented player in the class.
6. New York Giants. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU. If I was Joe Schoen, I’d be trying to find my way to one of the top four quarterbacks, because I’m not a believer in Daniel Jones. The path to making that happen, however, looks pretty difficult. Staying put should allow the Giants to get one of the top three receivers, filling a huge need. It’s believed there are teams who have Nabers ranked ahead of Harrison on their board.
7. Tennessee Titans. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. It feels like there is more consensus than normal at the top of the draft this year. A big reason is teams have such clearly defined needs, and for the Titans, none is bigger than offensive line help.
8. Atlanta Falcons. Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama. This is another example of need matching up nicely with available talent, leading to a popular mock draft pick. The Falcons finished No. 25 in the NFL in pressure rate last season, and their two leaders in terms of sacks – Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree – have not been re-signed. Turner would thus fill an immediate need.
9. Buffalo Bills (projected trade with the Chicago Bears). Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. We know that Brandon Beane isn’t afraid to be bold during the draft. We also know that wide receiver is by far the biggest need on the roster. Beane can say all he wants that he drafts the “best player available,” but history shows that always has a way of matching up with a big need on the roster. An oddity about this year’s draft is the Bears have just four picks – Nos. 1 and 9 in the first round, No. 75 in the third round and No. 122 in the fourth round. It stands to reason they would want to add some depth to their roster with some more picks. Knowing that, here’s my offer: No. 28 in the first round, No. 128 overall in the fourth round, No. 200 in the sixth round and my first-round pick in 2025. That’s similar in compensation to what the Bills received in 2017 when they moved down with Kansas City in a trade that netted the Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In that deal, the Bills went from No. 10 down to No. 27, and received a current-year third round pick and a future first-round pick. The Bills don’t have a third-rounder this year, so instead they send the fourth-rounder and sixth-rounder. Here’s the rationale for trading next year’s No. 1. The Stefon Diggs trade netted the Bills a 2025 second-round pick that originally belonged to Minnesota. It’s reasonable to expect the Vikings to struggle in 2024 with either a rookie starting at quarterback or Sam Darnold. Let’s say that pick ends up being No. 38 overall. The Bills should reasonably expect to be picking in the late 20s next year in the first round, or maybe even in the 30s. In that case, they’re not really moving down all that far.
It’s a price worth paying if it lands Odunze, who would give them a potential No. 1 receiver on a cost-controlled contract for the next five years of Josh Allen’s career.
10. New York Jets. Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State. If he’s not too busy dabbling in the latest conspiracy theory online, Aaron Rodgers is expected to play quarterback for the Jets in 2024. Last season, the Jets’ most frequently used offensive line combination was together for just 143 plays, which was 13.6% of their offensive snaps – the lowest total in the league, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with Arizona). Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. Wide receiver is perhaps a bigger need for Los Angeles, but Bowers fits the definition of best player available here, and would still help quarterback Justin Herbert. The receiver depth in this draft is such that the Chargers can afford to wait and still add to that position later.
12. Denver Broncos. Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama. Given their quarterback situation and the division they play in, the Broncos are a sneaky pick to end up with the No. 1 overall draft pick next season. They need help across their roster.
13. Las Vegas Raiders. J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama. Like the Broncos, the Raiders are quarterback needy, but don’t appear well positioned to address that need in the first round. Don’t rule out a move up into the bottom of the first round to find a quarterback. Until then, addressing the offensive line is logical.
14. New Orleans Saints. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. The quarterbacks and wide receivers at the top of the draft have generated most of the buzz, but as this mock shows, it’s a good bet that plenty of offensive tackles will hear their name called in the first half of the first round.
15. Indianapolis Colts. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa. He fits the Colts’ zone defensive scheme well and has the versatility to play either cornerback or safety.
16. Seattle Seahawks. Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington. Abraham Lucas was shaky last season as Seattle’ starting right tackle, so Fautanu would be able to compete for that job right away.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo. Where are all the Mid-American Conference fans? It’s your time to shine with Mitchell going in the first round.
18. Cincinnati Bengals. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU. It feels like the Bengals aren’t going to pay Tee Higgins, so taking Thomas would allow them to trade Higgins to the highest bidder while still having a quality No. 2 receiver to pair with Ja’Marr Chase.
19. Los Angeles Rams. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois. Good luck to whoever replaces Aaron Donald in the middle of the Rams’ defense.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State. The offensive tackle run continues.
21. Miami Dolphins. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon. In addition to center, Powers-Johnson has played both guard spots, so he’s got the versatility to move around on Miami’s offensive line.
22. Philadelphia Eagles. Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State. The Eagles traded Haason Reddick to the Jets this offseason, so they could add more juice to their pass rush.
23. Arizona Cardinals (projected trade with Minnesota). Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA. Latu’s NFL comparison on his scouting report is T.J. Watt, which is high praise. Latu missed two full seasons at Washington because of a neck injury in 2020-21, but had 23.5 sacks over the past two years with the Bruins.
24. Dallas Cowboys. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas. The Cowboys have needs on both lines. They fill one of them by staying in state.
25. Green Bay Packers. Graham Barton, C, Duke. Even if Barton moves to guard at the next level, it’s important for the Packers to get more protection for Jordan Love.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri. The Bucs feel like a team that could go “best player available,” but that’s primarily because there are a number of holes on the roster of a team that made the divisional round of the playoffs.
27. Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with Arizona). Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. After trading Keenan Allen and cutting Mike Williams, the Chargers need to rebuild their wide receiver room.
28. Chicago Bears (projected trade with Buffalo). Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State. The Bears can use a running mate for Montez Sweat coming off the edge.
29. Las Vegas Raiders (projected trade with Detroit). Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington. As speculated above, the Raiders make a move up to get a quarterback – and the fifth-year option that comes with taking him in the first round.
30. Baltimore Ravens. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. Baltimore lost three starting offensive linemen in free agency, so rebuilding up front is a must.
31. San Francisco 49ers. Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona. Morgan makes it eight offensive tackles chosen in the first round.
32. Kansas City Chiefs. Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State. The addition of Hollywood Brown gives the Chiefs a burner at receiver. Coleman would give them a contested-catch specialist.