College basketball powers meet on Saturday in the second round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament when the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) take on the No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans (20-14) in the West Region. The winner advances to the Sweet 16 to take on the winner of Alabama vs. Grand Canyon. UNC leads all programs with 132 NCAA Tournament victories, while Michigan State ranks sixth with 73. Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo excels in March Madness, especially when seeded lower than the opponent. He owns the tournament record with 17 wins in that scenario.
Tipoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. The Tar Heels are 4-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 142.5 in the latest Michigan State vs. North Carolina odds from the SportsLine consensus. Before entering any North Carolina vs. Michigan State picks, make sure you see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Michigan State vs. UNC revealed its March Madness picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for UNC vs. Michigan State:
- Michigan State vs. North Carolina spread: North Carolina -4
- Michigan State vs. North Carolina over/under: 142.5
- Michigan State vs. North Carolina money line: North Carolina -188, Michigan State +156
- UNC: Has won all four prior NCAA Tournament games against Michigan State.
- MSU: The Spartans are 8-4 against the spread in non-conference games this season.
- Michigan State vs. North Carolina picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why North Carolina can cover
The Tar Heels have some betting trends working in their favor heading into this matchup. They were 12-8 against the spread this season when playing away from home, compared to an 8-7-1 ATS mark for Michigan State. They were also outstanding as small favorites, covering at a 77% rate when they were favored between -2 and -6, as they are in this spot.
They have one of the nation's best inside-outside duos in the nation in forward Armando Bacot and guard RJ Davis. Bacot averages 14.3 points and 10.3 rebounds this season. Davis leads the team with 21.4 points per game and shoots 41% from 3-point range. See which team to pick here.
Why Michigan State can cover
The Spartans' inclusion in the 64-team field was a hotly debated topic following a regular-season campaign that saw them go 10-10 in the Big Ten for sixth place and a relatively modest non conference portfolio. What's more, Izzo didn't help matters by publicly suggesting the NCAA Tournament put an end to automatic bids for mid-major conferences. This backdrop allowed them to take a nothing-to-lose mentality into the NCAA Tournament behind a combination of defense and rebounding that has seen Izzo lead the club to eight Final Fours and the 2000 national championship.
In its first-round victory over Mississippi State, Michigan State held the Bulldogs to 37% shooting, won the rebounding battle 35-29 and forced 15 turnovers. Tyson Walker led the way with 19 points, while Jaden Akins added 15 points and seven rebounds. See which team to pick here.
How to make Michigan State vs. North Carolina picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting at least 144 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Michigan State vs. North Carolina and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan State vs. North Carolina spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 29-19 roll on top-ranked college basketball spread picks, and find out.
