That is the Knicks’ first-round playoff question.
The Knicks secured the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed, and as a result, they are waiting idly until an opponent for the first round of the playoffs is decided via the NBA’s Play-In Tournament.
The No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers host the No. 8 Miami Heat on Wednesday, with the winner advancing to the first round to face the Knicks in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, and the loser relegated to one more Play-In game to determine the eighth and final playoff spot.
Regardless of who wins the East’s 7-8 Game, the Knicks must prepare for a war at the center position.
Embiid is the league’s reigning Most Valuable Player, and Adebayo is a three-time All-Star who’s been to the Eastern Conference Finals three times in the last four years.
In fact, both Embiid and Adebayo will represent Team USA in the 2024 Paris Olympics, a sign of just how tall a task the Knicks will face at the five if they are hoping to match last season’s playoff success and make it back to the second round.
Embiid would be in the running for MVP honors yet again had a meniscus injury not derailed his season. He is averaging career-highs in points (34.7), assists (5.6) and steals (1.2) per game and is shooting a career-best 38.8% from three-point range this season albeit in just 39 regular-season games.
Adebayo’s averages of 19 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and about a steal and block per game are modest in comparison to Embiid, but the Heat big man has historically been a thorn in the side of the Knicks in the playoffs.
In fact, any big man who can generate offense outside of the paint has been a tough check for a Knicks team largely deploying drop coverage in pick-and-roll situations.
A player like Embiid has proven capable of exploiting even the smallest weakness in any defense.
“We can play great defense, and they’re still gonna make [a shot],” Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau said following practice on Tuesday. “You’re talking about MVP caliber players here, so we know we can’t give them a steady diet, or they’ll adjust to that as well.”
Thibodeau has a layered thought process when setting up a game plan against a talented opposing center:
- First: Who’s the personnel? Who do the Knicks have on the floor, and what players are on the floor for the opponent?
- Second: Does the opponent have heavy three-point shooting? This dictates where the Knicks can send help from. In both the case of Philadelphia and Miami, the answer is a resounding yes.
- Third: Are the Knicks anticipating the roll or the pop in pick-and-roll situations? The way they defend Kristaps Porzingis — who is largely a perimeter threat on offense — likely differs from the game plan deployed against both Embiid and Adebayo, who do their damage in the mid-range and with brute force around the paint.
“Those are decisions we’ve got to make, because when you’ve got great players, they’re gonna put you in situations where you’ve gotta determine what you’re going to be willing to live with,” Thibodeau explained. “Is the mid-range shot something you would rather have them taking than the layup or the open three, or does it lead to another offensive rebound, which is another high-value shot? So weighing all of those things is something that you have to do, but I know we have to mix our coverages up.”
There’s also the matter of the Knicks’ current status at the five, and with Isaiah Hartenstein, Mitchell Robinson and Precious Achiuwa — as well as OG Anunoby’s ability to float defensively — the team believes they are well-equipped for the challenge.
Robinson admitted to his own struggles defending Adebayo in the Knicks’ second-round playoff exit last season after Tuesday’s practice in Tarrytown.
He dominated both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley in the first round against the Cleveland Cavaliers, closing the series with 13 points, 18 rebounds, three blocks and two steals in a decisive, series-ending Game 5 — but averaged less than a steal and a block in the second round against the Heat, where the Knicks fell short.
Adebayo averaged about 19 points and 10 rebounds per game in the series and closed the Knicks out in Game 6 with 23 points, nine rebounds, two steals and a block.
“Bam, he’s not like your average five. You know what I mean?” said the 7-foot center still recovering from early-December ankle surgery. “He brings it up the court most of the time, so it’s like, not many fives that’s doing that. But watching that from last year and just watching him over the season this year, I got a pretty good idea.”
Adebayo, of course, is the lesser of the two evils. Embiid is a mammoth of a challenge, and the Sixers have weapons flanking their all-world center — including an All-Star guard in Tyrese Maxey and lanky wings and forwards capable of switching onto Jalen Brunson on defense.
Embiid is averaging close to 32 points and 11 rebounds in his last five games against the Knicks. Due to injury, he only played against the Knicks once this season: Embiid finished with 30 points and 10 rebounds, but days after trading for Anunoby, the Knicks walloped the Sixers by 36.
Thibodeau smiled when asked which team between Philadelphia and Miami he’d rather field as a first-round opponent.
“At this time of the year, they’re both great teams. When you’re looking at it, people are saying, what about this team, that team…if you got this far every team poses different problems,” he said. “So we have to be ready. I know you guys think it’s cliché, but that’s why you start the season [thinking] this is what you’re going to need in the end. Build that habit all year long so when you get here you’re not adjusting.
“This isn’t the first time we’ve done it. I think understanding what their strengths and weaknesses are, what they’re doing well right now, what we have to do, is a big part of winning.”
