Senator Ted Cruz is leading his Democratic challenger in the race for the Texas Senate seat among registered voters and the potentially key independent demographic, according to a poll.
A Marist survey of 1,227 Texas adults found that Cruz is leading Representative Colin Allred by six points among registered voters (51 to 45 percent) in the race for the hotly contested seat. When the results are broken down further, Cruz also leads Allred by eight points (50 to 42 percent) among independents, who could yet prove crucial in November's election.
Cruz has already warned that Democrats will focus on flipping his Texas Senate seat in November as they hope to retain control of the upper chamber. In 2018, Cruz beat former Democratic Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke by just over 2.6 points in one of the most fiercely contested elections in the country.
The Marist Poll shows that Cruz is also by far the more preferred candidate among men in Texas, beating Allred by 21 points (59 percent to 38). The Democrat has better support than the Republican among women (52 percent to 44).
The poll suggests that the race could still swing either way once Allred gets better name recognition.
Currently, a majority of Texas (53 percent) said they have never heard of the outgoing congressman, or are unsure how to rate him. Nearly a third (30 percent) of Texas said they have a positive view of Allred, with 17 percent saying they have an unfavorable view of him.
Unsurprisingly, voters have stronger views on Cruz, a former presidential candidate who has much greater name recognition on a statewide and national level.
The poll shows that 45 percent of Texas residents have a favorable view of Cruz, compared to 43 percent who said they have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican senator.
Newsweek reached out to Cruz's office via email for comment.
Mark Jones, a professor of political science and fellow of political science at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy in Texas, previously suggested Cruz will not make the mistake he made in 2018 by not taking the threat of O'Rourke seriously until the final few months of the campaign to boost his reelection chances.
"In 2024, Cruz won't be fooled again," Jones told Newsweek.
"He is treating Allred seriously from day one and will also be working throughout the year to prevent Allred from presenting himself to moderate Republicans and independents as a pragmatic centrist in an effort to peel off Republican and independent voters who presently favor Cruz."
Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha, a professor of American Politics at the University of North Texas, said that Cruz won't be caught "flat-footed" against Allred in this election campaign.
"Beto O'Rourke came on like gangbusters; Cruz and his supporters took until the summer to realize that he was a threat," Eshbaugh-Soha told Newsweek.
"Cruz has already positioned himself to start campaigning now. He won't let Allred build the kind of momentum O'Rourke had."
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Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... Read more
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