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Consumer Sentiment Slips in April as Inflation Remains Sticky

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Consumer sentiment dipped in the first few weeks of April as persistently sticky inflation continues to weigh on Americans’ outlook on the economy.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index dropped to a reading of 77.9 from 79.4 in March, according to preliminary data released Friday. Economists polled by FactSet had forecast sentiment would stay unchanged from the prior month.

Inflation expectations for the year ahead ticked up to 3.1% in April from 2.9% in March. Long-run expectations also edged up, coming in at 3% in April from 2.8%.

“A slight uptick in inflation expectations in April reflects some frustration that the inflation slowdown may have stalled,” said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan.

Consumer prices climbed 3.5% year over year in March, according to the latest consumer price index report released Wednesday. That marked an acceleration from February’s 3.2% increase.

That said, expectations over personal finances, business conditions, and labor markets have all remained stable over the past four months, Hsu noted. Since January, the consumer sentiment index has remained within a “very narrow” 2.5 index point range, she added, as consumers may be reserving judgment about the economy until the presidential election in November.

The index has also notched notable improvements since reaching all-time lows in the summer of 2022. Indeed, April’s preliminary reading marked a 22.3% improvement from a year ago.

“Consumers' frustration that inflation has stopped dropping continues to hold down sentiment, but beyond that they see the economy still in pretty good shape, which most economists would agree is a fair assessment,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, in emailed comments to Barron’s.

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