The Chicago Cubs have built one of baseball’s top farm systems, approaching the potential moment when a wave of exciting talent arrives at Wrigley Field and the front office pulls off a blockbuster move at the trade deadline. Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who had long ago circled 2024 as a pivotal year, sold Craig Counsell on the organization’s overall health. We’re not talking about Class-A players or what the Opening Day lineup could look like in four years. With this team, things can happen fast.
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The Cubs are 9-6 after Sunday’s 3-2 win over the Seattle Mariners, and they will continue their road trip Monday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that edged them out of a playoff spot last year and made it to the World Series. Jason Kanzler understood the expectations in Chicago when he left his job as a hitting coach with the Houston Astros to become the team’s new director of player development.
“This is the exact type of situation where you need to double down and really make sure player development is operating extremely well,” Kanzler said during spring training. “Because the major-league team is in a position to be very competitive for a while, which means that the farm is going to be depleted with trades. You’re going to have to bolster the major-league team from within. You won’t be able to just acquire, acquire, acquire from outside.”
These questions from readers, which have been lightly edited, now carry more urgency.
How long before we see Matt Shaw at Wrigley Field? — Brandon M.
This shouldn’t be the immediate reaction every time Christopher Morel makes an error at third base. Shaw can’t be the answer when he’s still learning the finer points of that position at Double-A Tennessee. The Cubs also seem open to the possibility that Morel could be part of the long-term solution.
Shaw primarily played shortstop at the University of Maryland, and there were questions about where he would land on defense after the Cubs selected him with the No. 13 pick in last year’s draft. In terms of his learning curve as a hitter, it’s worth noting the Big Ten didn’t have a pitcher taken within the first 100 picks of Shaw’s draft class. This is Morel’s third season in the majors, and things really seem to be clicking for him on offense.
Christopher Morel flashes the leather at the hot corner 🔥 pic.twitter.com/xEOfl9x1e9
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) April 14, 2024
At the same time, Shaw has impressed team officials with his focus and maturity. He took the initiative and made defense a top offseason priority. He saw that as a quicker path to Chicago and a better long-term move for his career because the Cubs have Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner anchoring their middle infield for the foreseeable future.
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On his draft night, Shaw talked about how he “wanted to be on a team that I thought would move me up and give me the opportunity to kind of fail early and learn how to get my footing through playing against really good competition.”
The Cubs fit that description.
The post-Theo Epstein Cubs are a vastly different franchise than the one that drafted Kris Bryant with the No. 2 pick in the 2013 draft. But there is still some institutional memory of how successful the Cubs have been with polished college hitters who were drafted in the first round after excelling in the Cape Cod League. Shaw matches that profile.
With Bryant, Hoerner, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ, the Cubs received a quick return on all of those first-round investments. Shaw is on deck. — Patrick Mooney
I assume Cade Horton isn’t going to throw 150 innings this year. This major-league team is likely chasing starters’ innings all season. Am I the only one who feels like every minor-league inning that Horton throws is a waste? – Matt M.
It probably shouldn’t be assumed the team is going to be chasing starters’ innings all season. They’re about to get Jameson Taillon back, and Justin Steele should be ready at some point in May. During their absence, Ben Brown has flashed what he can do. Javier Assad continues to show that he was a highly undervalued prospect. And Jordan Wicks has seen a stuff jump that should bring optimism. So far, the Cubs have actually shown they were right about their starting pitching depth. Let’s see how the bullpen looks if/when Brown shifts to a relief role, but that unit still seems like the much bigger concern.
Either way, Horton, who started this season at Double A, looks like he will impact the major-league club. There’s something to be said for the point that innings in the minors are “a waste” for Horton. There is a school of thought that advanced pitching prospects should move quickly, particularly for a contending club. The belief is there are only so many pitches in that arm before injury strikes, so you may as well maximize them on the biggest stage.
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That can make sense, especially if an organization is overthinking things with development. That doesn’t seem to be the case here. Horton is an elite pitching prospect, the kind who hasn’t been seen with the Cubs in quite some time. But there are things the Cubs want to see from Horton before he hits the highest level.
The prized righty made huge strides last year with his curveball and changeup. The Cubs now view him as a prospect with four legitimate offerings, all average to plus. Their director of pitching, Ryan Otero, said the organization wants to see him carry that into 2024. Beyond that, they want to make sure his body is properly prepared for a long season.
“We’re hoping for a workload that we haven’t seen from him yet,” Otero said. “Just get him in that routine and make sure he’s ready for four- and five-day rest as a starter.”
Otero also made it clear they won’t be looking at only innings when judging if Horton needs to be shut down.
“We don’t really like subscribing to firm inning projections because the body is more complicated than that,” Otero said. “We use them as a guide. We have a lot of really helpful readiness tests, workload tests and fatigue tests just to see where players are at.”
Surely, the Cubs will be creative in finding ways to make sure Horton can be available if needed later in the season. But the Cubs need to find the right balance between enough development that Horton isn’t overwhelmed and making sure his talents aren’t being wasted when he could impact a team fighting for a playoff spot. — Sahadev Sharma
Apart from Horton, which pitching prospect could make a big impact for the Cubs this year? – Harry R.
It’s already happening with Brown, who was summoned from Triple A after Steele went down. Brown is simply a big dude (6-foot-6) with big stuff, the kind of physical presence the Cubs have struggled to develop from within.
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Brown’s potential was not lost on Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, who traded the pitching prospect to the Cubs for rental reliever David Robertson. After making a series of deals around the 2022 trade deadline, Dombrowski said, “Brown is probably the one that hurt the most.”
Pedro Martinez, the Hall of Famer and TBS analyst, also came away impressed with Brown’s 4 2/3 scoreless innings against the San Diego Padres, declaring the Cubs have “something special in this kid.” — Mooney
"I think they have something special in this kid." – Pedro Martinez on Ben Brown pic.twitter.com/gwyXosnSxZ
— Matt Clapp (@TheBlogfines) April 10, 2024
Luke Little and Daniel Palencia shot through the system after being converted to relief roles last year. Are there any players who could make a similar transition this year? – Sam E.
Despite his inexperience, Michael Arias showed enough potential to gain a spot on the 40-man roster in November. He evenly split his 22 starts last year between Low-A Myrtle Beach (2.55 ERA) and High-A South Bend (5.77 ERA), continuing his transition to pitching. The Toronto Blue Jays had originally signed him as a shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. After the Blue Jays released him in 2020, the Cubs saw his arm strength and athleticism, taking him on as a project.
Arias, 22, came out of the bullpen in his first two Double-A appearances and still has a lot to learn. Little is a 6-foot-8 lefty and Palencia has exceptional fastball velocity, so their paths won’t be easily followed. But it’s telling that the Cubs protected Arias from the Rule 5 draft at a time when they felt like their 40-man roster had limited flexibility. — Mooney
Arias is definitely one to keep an eye on. Around the time spring games started, Jim Duquette and Ryan Spilborghs were in camp for MLB Network Radio duties. They sat and watched Arias throw live batting practice — having never heard of him — and almost immediately turned to ask what the deal is with this kid. Always fun to see someone discover an intriguing talent who wasn’t on their radar before.
Beyond Arias, Porter Hodge is someone to keep in mind. When Counsell was asked about Hodge in spring training, the manager immediately noted that he’s someone who stands out because of the stuff. Hodge’s fastball has ticked up to the upper 90s out of the bullpen, and it has cut-ride action. He added a splitter in the second half of last season to help against lefties, and his slider is something he leans on along with the heater.
Hodge felt like it was a big adjustment to the bullpen last summer. He struggled at first to understand how best to prepare as a reliever but eventually learned that he couldn’t sit still. He had to stay warm.
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The bugaboo with Hodge is his walk rate. He dominated in two relief appearances at Double A to start this season, but after being promoted to Triple A, those walk issues popped up immediately as he worked around a trio of free passes in a scoreless inning of work. If Hodge can figure that part out, which is obviously a very important aspect, he makes sense as a midseason addition to the bullpen when needed. Especially considering he’s already on the 40-man roster.
Riley Thompson, Riley Martin and Zac Leigh all bear watching, as well. And as Counsell said in the spring, there’s probably someone on the back fields not really on our radar who will end up impacting the club later in the season. That’s how it should be with deep organizations that have strong player development. — Sharma
If Owen Caissie keeps dominating, what are the odds that he beats Pete Crow-Armstrong to Chicago? – David F.
You’re not the only one thinking along those lines. During spring training, Cubs officials highlighted Caissie as a player to watch, believing he could be an X-factor at the major-league level at some point this season. Remember how quickly the Cubs promoted Schwarber when they thought his left-handed power could electrify the lineup?
Still, Caissie needs to put together a bigger body of work than some good games at Triple A. Crow-Armstrong actually beat Caissie to Wrigley Field last year. Crow-Armstrong flashes elite defense in center field and holds a spot on the 40-man roster, which puts him in a better position to get promoted when an outfielder gets injured.
Even before Cody Bellinger re-signed, the Cubs expected Crow-Armstrong to begin this season with Iowa. Counsell is a big believer in Crow-Armstrong’s defense, but a few weeks of Cactus League games wouldn’t be enough time to smooth out everything from his call-up in September. That audition was also so brief that the Cubs certainly aren’t giving up on Crow-Armstrong. The best organizations constantly have players like Crow-Armstrong and Caissie trying to force the issue. — Mooney
(Photo of Matt Shaw from spring training: Rick Scuteri / USA Today)