Will the New York Jets select tight end Brock Bowers with the 10th overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
I’m not the only one who believes Bowers will be the Jets’ pick, but I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is with a few wagers on this outcome.
With the draft a week away, let’s look at the reasons why Bowers could be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers next season.
No. 10 overall pick odds
| Player | Position | College | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | Tight End | Georgia | +210 |
| Olu Fashanu | Offensive Tackle | Penn State | +650 |
| Taliese Fuaga | Offensive Tackle | Oregon State | +650 |
| Troy Fautanu | Offensive Tackle | Washington | +700 |
| Rome Odunze | Wide Receiver | Washington | +850 |
| J.C. Latham | Offensive Tackle | Alabama | +1100 |
All about Aaron Rodgers
The Jets will – and should – do everything they can to keep the Hall of Fame quarterback and four-time MVP healthy and happy.
Therefore, most suspect the Jets will either draft an offensive lineman to protect Rodgers or a weapon for Rodgers to throw to.
I’m banking on the latter.
The Jets have already committed resources to the offensive line, signing a pair of tackles in Tyron Smith (Dallas) and Morgan Moses (Baltimore), both of whom ranked top-10 among tackles in PFF’s grades last season.
Including fourth-year guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, New York’s front five should play fine.
What the Jets really need is a receiver who can create from the slot.
While Garrett Wilson put up another 1,000-yard season on 95 catches in 2023, the Jets’ next most productive pass catchers were tight end Tyler Conklin (621 yards on 61 receptions) and running back Breece Hall (591 yards on 76 receptions).
The draft class features a lot of wideout talent, but its almost certain Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, or Malik Nabers won’t fall to the Jets.
The next receivers include Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Ladd McConkey.
Thomas is more of a take-the-top-off wide receiver. Mitchell and McConkey could slide into the slot easier, but neither took more than 20% of snaps from that spot in college, and I don’t think either is worth a top-10 selection.
Brock Bowers has unlimited upside
Bowers is not your typical tight end. He reminds me of George Kittle or Travis Kelce – a more traditional pass catcher with versatility, mismatch creation, great hands and YAC ability.
Essentially, line Bowers up anywhere, and he’ll make something happen.
And the Jets would happily line him up in the slot, where he took more than half of his snaps at Georgia.
Bowers is precisely what Rodgers and the Jets need, and he boasts enough high-upside talent to be taken as a top-10 pick.
He racked up more than 2,500 yards across three seasons at close to 15 yards per reception with 26 touchdowns and a drop rate under 5%. In his senior season, he tallied more than 700 yards in only 10 games.
Why wouldn’t Rodgers want him? Bowers is a walking mismatch with a unique combination of speed, ball skills and explosiveness. Dane Brugler of The Athletic has him graded as the draft’s seventh-best overall prospect.
The ceiling is crazy high.
Odds for position of Jets’ first drafted player
| Position | Odds | Position | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Line | +105 | Defensive Line | +2000 |
| Tight End | +185 | Cornerback | +2000 |
| Wide Receiver | +340 | Quarterback | +6000 |
The mock draft market
Vegas Refund has tracked 32 mock drafts from trusted analysts across the industry, and 24 have Bowers being drafted by the Jets.
NFL.com analyst Peter Schrager recently mocked Bowers to the Jets, writing in his piece:
“This is a special prospect. In fact, I’ve been told by multiple general managers that I’m not high enough on Bowers and that his ability after the catch sets him apart from just about every tight end prospect since Kyle Pitts. Excellent player, a winner and another weapon for Aaron Rodgers to exploit — this pairing does indeed make a ton of sense.”
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I’m thinking the same thing, Pete!
Yet, at the time of this writing, the sportsbooks still favor other avenues for the Jets’ first-round pick.
DraftKings still favors the Jets selecting an offensive lineman (+120), as does FanDuel (+105). Both books have Bowers’ draft over/under pick number at 12.5, albeit slightly juiced to the under.
Given what I’m reading and envisioning, the posted lines don’t make sense.
I’m taking advantage by betting some juicy plus-money numbers on Bowers’ draft position and the Jets’ draft choice.
Brock Bowers draft prediction and pick
- Brock Bowers draft position over/under: Under 12.5 (-130, FanDuel)
- Position of Jets’ first drafted player: Tight end (+185, FanDuel)
- Number 10 overall pick: Brock Bowers (+210, FanDuel)