NBA playoffs predictions and play-in tournament schedule live updates: Bracket, odds, draft lottery and stats

Minnesota star Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to return from injury in one of the Timberwolves' final regular season games (tonight in Denver, Friday vs. Atlanta or Sunday vs. Phoenix), league sources tell The Athletic. Towns attacked rehab and impressed Timberwolves teammates and coaches with his recovery from a left knee lateral meniscus tear in early March.

Donovan Mitchell didn’t play Sunday due to injury management on his bothersome left knee. He told me he was healthy and healed from the injection he received to cure a bone bruise, but I don't think that's the case. He’s looked slow and uncomfortable and won't drive to the paint. On the Cavaliers' recent five-game road trip, he shot 36 percent from the field and 27 percent from 3. With the Cavs fighting for playoff positioning, and the feeling that each of these games matter, I would have liked to see Donovan play against the Clippers. But looking at his numbers and just watching him move, it seems like something is still wrong and his absence was more than a load management situation.

Dean Wade, meanwhile, hasn't played since March 8. He is a critical rotation player who has missed the last 16 games; Cleveland is 5-11 in that stretch. He's already been ruled out for Wednesday's game.

The injury is a knee sprain, but this is a curious situation. He left the team to be present for the birth of his child, and I am told he was then injured at practice and hasn't played since. But before the road trip started, coach J.B. Bickerstaff said Wade's injury was a wear-and-tear situation. He also said he could not guarantee Wade would be back for the playoffs.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were in second place at the All-Star break. Now, the Cavs are just 46-33, a half a game ahead of the Indiana Pacers for FIFTH! What a disastrous second half — sadly, the third rough one in a row under coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Cleveland plays Memphis tonight — the second night of a back to back for the Grizzlies — and host the lowly Hornets on Sunday. That’s two games the Cavaliers absolutely should win. Sandwiched in there is a ridiculously big game against … Indiana. It’s in Cleveland.

The Cavaliers have to shoot more 3s. There is a more sophisticated way to describe the general lethargy and ineptness of their offense, but Cleveland was the best team in the NBA for two months. When that was the case, the Cavs were averaging about 40 3s per game. On that disastrous 5-game road trip that is now over, they took 30 3s per game. Jason Lloyd and I have written ad nauseam about this dilemma. Their best players include both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, but when they are on the floor together, the offense the Cavs play is not the magic formula they used in December and January, when only Allen was healthy.

And yet, I maintain that in the modern NBA, when the regular season has never mattered less, we could be marveling at this team's recovery in two weeks time, patting them on the back for a 2-0 lead in a first-round series. But Donovan Mitchell has to be right and Bickerstaff either needs to change the rotation to make the offense the best it can be or find a way to play with Allen and Mobley on the floor together. The players need to be better, too — this is certainly not all on the coach. But the onus falls on Bickerstaff when it comes to strategery, and what the Cavs have tried lately hasn't worked.

One last seeding note for the sickos: Atlanta's double overtime loss to Miami last night may have ended the race for homecourt in the East 9-10 game. The Bulls' magic number is just two, and they still play Detroit and Washington this week.

One other big game tonight is the rematch of the Clippers' rout of Phoenix, this time in Los Angeles. The Clips are locked into a 4-5 matchup with Dallas, but another loss for Phoenix would almost certainly banish the Suns to the Play-In Tournament. Phoenix is a game behind New Orleans already and doesn't have the tiebreak.

With three difficult games remaining against the Clippers, Kings and Wolves — all on the road — Phoenix also needs to start sweating its rearview mirror. Believe it or not, Golden State's win over the Lakers last night means it’s still possible for the Suns to finish 10th (!) if the Warriors win out and the Lakers win at least once. Phoenix losing all three of these games is possible, especially if the Wolves still have a top seed to play for on Sunday.

Golden State’s win over the Lakers — aided by a record-setting 3-point hailstorm from Steph Curry (expected) and Draymond Green and Gary Payton (unexpected) — not only paves the way for the Warriors to host the Lakers in the Play-In game if they win out, but also provides a semi-realistic pathway to move up to eighth should one of the Kings or Suns falter. The Warriors move up if they win out and either the Kings lose twice, or Phoenix or New Orleans loses three times.

Sacramento lost on Tuesday as well, and the Kings should also be hearing footsteps. With two difficult games still left against Phoenix and New Orleans – albeit both at home – it's still possible for Kings to land 10th with 46 wins. Tiebreaks against Golden State and the Lakers offer a bit of insulation. This is also a big item of interest for Atlanta fans, as the Hawks own the Kings' top-14 protected first-round pick.

New Orleans can't breathe easy either with three tough games still remaining, but last night's results couldn’t have gone better for them. There are scenarios where the Pelicans lose all three games and still get an automatic playoff spot up the sixth seed, though they probably shouldn't test that path out.

After a 14-game Tuesday extravaganza, we have "just" eight tonight, a couple of which have relatively huge implications. And man, did some stuff happen. We had a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury, a Suns meltdown, a Warriors 3-point hailstorm and more. But let's start in the East:

The combination of Milwaukee beating Boston, Orlando losing to Houston and the Antetokounmpo injury sets the stage for two very interesting situations. The first: A potential MAXIMUM CHAOS scenario in the Eastern Conference, where four teams could plausibly end up tied at 49-33.

That seemed rather unlikely until the moment when Giannis toppled over. With him likely to be out for the remainder of the regular season, Orlando’s odd of sweeping its two remaining games against Milwaukee — the first of which is tonight — suddenly tilt from "so you’re saying there's a chance" to "whoa, this could happen." Orlando winning out, Cleveland winning its three remaining home games, Milwaukee beating Oklahoma City on Friday and New York losing once of its final three games would leave all four teams tied.

If that happened, Orlando would win the tiebreaker and be the second seed in the East. New York would be third and Cleveland — the Central division winner — would be fourth and face Milwaukee.

Of course, the Knicks could also win out and claim the second seed for themselves if the Bucks lose twice. Or, the Cavs could lose to Indiana on Friday and fall all the way to sixth.

Or … how about the second crazy scenario where the Bucks lose their final three games (at Oklahoma City and the two against Orlando). In that scenario, it's possible for Milwaukee to fall all the way to sixth in the East, and Indiana would control its own destiny to be the Central Division champion and seeded as high as fourth.

After a meaningful 14-game Tuesday slate, here are the updated NBA standings and postseason matchups:

EAST

1. Boston Celtics: 62-17
2. Milwaukee Bucks: 48-31
3. New York Knicks: 47-32
4. Orlando Magic: 46-33
5. Cleveland Cavaliers: 46-33
6. Indiana Pacers: 46-34
7. Philadelphia 76ers: 45-35
8. Miami Heat: 44-35
9. Chicago Bulls: 37-42
10. Atlanta Hawks: 36-43

WEST

1. Minnesota Timberwolves: 55-24
2. Denver Nuggets: 55-24
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: 54-25
4. LA Clippers: 50-28
5. Dallas Mavericks: 49-30
6. New Orleans Pelicans: 47-32
7. Phoenix Suns: 46-33
8. Sacramento Kings: 45-34
9. Los Angeles Lakers: 45-35
10. Golden State Warriors: 44-35

Play-In Tournament

• Heat at 76ers, winner to face Bucks
• Kings at Suns, winner to face Nuggets
• Hawks at Bulls, loser eliminated
• Warriors at Lakers, loser eliminated
• Hawks-Bulls winner at Heat-76ers loser, winner to face Celtics
• Warriors-Lakers winner at Kings-Suns loser, winner to face Timberwolves

Playoff matchups

(1) Celtics vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Bucks vs. (7) Heat/76ers

(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pacers

(4) Magic vs. (5) Cavaliers

(1) Timberwolves vs. (8) Play-In winner

(2) Nuggets vs. (7) Suns/Kings winner

(3) Thunder vs. (6) Pelicans

(4) Clippers vs. (5) Mavericks

___

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Giannis Antetokounmpo has avoided damage to his left Achilles tendon — a best-case outcome — and his return to play is based on treatment and rehab response for a strained calf, league sources tell The Athletic. Calves are undeniably tricky, and these type of strains have timetable of at least one-to-two weeks. But rehab will determine a length of time for the two-time NBA MVP.

The LA Clippers were able to hold on despite losing 30 points of a 37-point lead, clinching a playoff spot with a 105-92 lead in Phoenix.

The Clippers are locked into the 4-5 matchup after wins by Oklahoma City, Denver, and Minnesota tonight. One more win by the Clippers clinched home court in the first round.

The Golden State Warriors beat the Los Angeles Lakers to move to 44-35. They clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker over LA (45-35) and now control their own destiny for ninth seed. If they beat the Trail Blazers, Pelicans and Jazz this week, they will finish ahead of the Lakers. With two Kings losses or three Pelicans or Suns losses this week, the Warriors can climb into eighth place with 3-0 finish.

Anthony Edwards on the Timberwolves' showdown with Denver tomorrow night, which will go a long way toward deciding the West's No. 1 seed.

"I think everyone know what is at stake, I don't even need to talk about how big it is. Everybody know."

Yes, Draymond Green hit five first-half 3-pointers against the Lakers.

The last time he made at least 5 threes in a game was in 2017. He went 5-for-6 in a blowout win against Chicago.

This was the 15th time in his career he's made at least five 3-pointers. His career-high is eight threes in a game, set in Game 7 of the 2016 NBA Finals.

Usually, Green hitting three 3-pointers spells doom for the opponent. The Warriors entered Tuesday’s game 61-10 when Green makes 3 or more.

They lost earlier this year with Green making 4-of-8 from 3. That game, he made them all in the first half. The Warriors would later squander a big lead and lose in the final seconds. It snapped a 10-game Warriors win streak when Green makes at least three.

Here is an exchange I had with Bucks point guard Damian Lillard, who strained his right soleus muscle in his calf at the start of last season. Lillard's teammate, Giannis Antetokounmpo, left tonight's game with a left soleus strain.

When I googled soleus strains in the NBA, I saw that...

"I did it last year."

So, I was going to ask you, what did it feel like?

"That s--- hurt. It hurt. And it makes sense. Usually I'm able to walk things off, I feel like I have a high pain tolerance. When I did it, I started to walk, (but) it wasn't just that it was that painful, it was that the muscle just can't handle it. So, I think once it calmed down, you kind of figured out a way to limp around it, but it's a weird feeling. But hearing that, I know, I know that feeling. And also as somebody who experienced that — if that's what it is — that's also encouraging.

Is that something you were able to rehab pretty quickly? Or did you need to take some time off of it first?

When I did it, I strained my calf, and then I came back after like, I'd probably say, eight or nine days, I came back from the calf. And then I strained, I had the soleus injury like right after I came back. I think it was like a game or two after I came back, I did my soleus. And then after that, it was like two weeks. For me, it was like two weeks and then I came back and played.

The last time the Warriors, who beat the host Lakers on March 16, won back-to-back games at Crypto.com Arena was 2019. It was the final season of the Kevin Durant tenure in Golden State. But the Lakers didn't have LeBron James for either of those games. He was out after sustaining an injury on Christmas Day against the Warriors, and Anthony Davis was still a New Orleans Pelican.

Take out the LeBron-less wins, and the Warriors' last back-to-back road wins against the Lakers came in 2017 — that window between the Kobe Bryant and LeBron James eras. The Warriors followed a Nov. 29 overtime win at then-Staples Center with a Dec. 18 overtime win in Los Angeles.

That Lakers' squad? Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Clarkson, with 24-year-old Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and 29-year-old Brook Lopez as veterans.

One of the reasons for the Warriors' struggles: Steph Curry doesn't shoot it well, traditionally, in this arena. With Steve Kerr as his coach since the start of the championship era, Curry has played 18 road games against the Lakers, including last year's playoffs. He averaged 22.6 points on 41.2 percent shooting. He made just 52-of-177 from three-point range (29.4 percent).

Conversely, in Curry's 18 games in the same time frame, in the same building, but against the Clippers, he averaged 26.7 points on 49.5 percent shooting. He made 73-of-179 from deep (40.8 percent).

Curry's best games on the road against the Lakers came against Kobe. Curry has topped 30 just seven times in this building against the Lakers, three of them against the Kobe Lakers. Those three games are the only times Curry has made 5 threes or more. Curry's biggest hame ever against the Lakers in this building: April 12, 2013. He scored 47, making nine threes in a two-point loss. He almost made the greatest shot of his life that game, his buzzer-beating beating heave from about 80 feet banked off the glass before rimming out.