Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
After a crazy first week of free agency, I thought for sure that things would slow down over the weekend, but I was wrong. The Steelers pulled off the most surprising trade of free agency so far by acquiring Justin Fields in a deal with the Bears.
We'll be breaking down that trade in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be taking a look at Ryan Wilson's latest mock draft and we'll be going over the biggest remaining needs for all 32 teams.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Mock Draft Monday: Vikings and Raiders both trade up for a quarterback
It's time for another edition of Mock Draft Monday, which is where we hunt down one of our NFL Draft gurus and force them to give you a new mock draft since there's no better way to start the week than with a fresh mock draft.
This week's mock is coming from NFL senior draft analyst Ryan Wilson, who has some wild trades going down in the first round. Not only does he have the Vikings trading into the top five for a QB, but he also has the Raiders making a trade to land a QB near the end of the first round. Also, the fact that the Bears traded away Justin Fields over the weekend made Wilson's life slightly easier, because it's now pretty clear that Chicago will be using the first overall pick on a quarterback.
With that in mind, here are the top-10 picks from his mock:
1. Bears: QB Caleb Wiliams (USC)
2. Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels (LSU)
3. Patriots: QB Drake Maye (UNC)
4. Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Ohio State)
5. Vikings (via mock trade with Chargers): QB J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
6. Giants: WR Malik Nabers (LSU) EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
7. Titans: OT Joe Alt (Notre Dame)
8. Falcons: EDGE Jared Verse (Florida State)
9. Bears: EDGE Dallas Turner (Alabama)
10. Jets: WR Rome Odunze (Washington)
Now, let's get to the Raiders. After selecting Toledo corner Quinyon Mitchell with the 13th overall pick, they pull off a trade with the 49ers at 31st overall and they use that pick to land Washington QB Michael Penix Jr.
From Wilson: "In 2018, the Ravens traded back into the bottom of the first round to select Lamar Jackson. The compensation: Baltimore sent picks 52 and 125 in 2018, and pick 53 in 2019 to Philadelphia for picks 32 and 132 in 2018. In this mock draft, the Raiders send picks 44 and 148 in 2024, and a second- and fourth-rounder in 2025 to move up to No. 31. Las Vegas gets the best deep-ball thrower in the class, in addition to arguably the best cornerback with pick No. 13."
If you want to see how the rest of Wilson's first round pans out, then be sure to check out his entire mock draft by clicking here.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with Ryan Wilson and Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube.
2. Breaking down the Steelers' wild weekend
The Steelers sent shockwaves through the NFL over the weekend with two huge trades that went down in a span of less than 28 hours. On Friday, they shipped Kenny Pickett and a 2024 fourth-rounder off to the Eagles, and in exchange, the Steelers got back a 2024 third-round pick and two 2025 seventh-rounders.
After trading Pickett, the Steelers still weren't done. One day later, they shockingly decided to acquire Justin Fields from the Bears.
Here's a look at the trade details:
- Steelers receive: Justin Fields
- Bears receive: Conditional 2025 sixth-round pick (Bumps up to a fourth-round pick if Fields plays 51% of the Steelers' offensive snaps in 2024)
For the Bears, this is an embarrassing deal. They used a first-round pick on Fields just three years ago and they got almost nothing in return for their former starting quarterback. As for the Steelers, they now have the perfect backup for Russell Wilson, and it appears that's definitely what Fields will be in Pittsburgh. Although Fields would surely love to compete for the starting job, the Steelers have apparently decided that Wilson will go into the season as the starter.
The Steelers have also decided that if they like what they see from Wilson in 2024, then they'll look to sign him to an extension after the season.
TRADE GRADES
Here's a look at our grades from the Fields trade (via Bryan DeArdo):
- Steelers grade: A. "This was a low-risk move for Pittsburgh. It gave up little to acquire a quarterback who still has untapped potential. Fields wasn't set up for success in Chicago, yet he continued to improve, and in 2022 recorded the second-highest rushing total by a quarterback in NFL history for a single season."
- Bears grade: D-. "The fact that the Steelers got considerably more for Kenny Pickett than the Bears did for Fields is nothing short of mind boggling." If you're wondering why Pickett was worth more in a trade than Fields, Jared Dubin did a good job of breaking that down here.
Also, you can check out DeArdo's full explanation for each grade by clicking here.
For most teams, being involved in two quarterback trades would qualify as a full weekend, but not for the Steelers. Not only did they make the trades, but they also signed Van Jefferson to a one-year deal. The Steelers could soon be adding another receiver on top of Jefferson and that's because former Chargers star Mike Williams is expected to visit Pittsburgh this week. You can read more about that here.
3. Biggest remaining needs for all 32 teams
The biggest problem with trying to build an NFL team is that it's pretty much impossible to create the perfect roster. Even if you fill a few of your needs in free agency, there are always going to be other needs.
With that in mind, Josh Edwards decided to take a look at every team's biggest remaining need after one week of free agency:
- Ravens: Offensive tackle. "Baltimore is currently in a position to start two players along the offensive line that only played a combined 191 offensive snaps last season. Utility man Patrick Mekari has been able to step into any role asked of him. However, the Ravens traded Morgan Moses to the New York Jets and veteran offensive guard Kevin Zeitler remains a free agent. For the time being, the offensive line should be a point of emphasis."
- Broncos: Quarterback. "Russell Wilson was clearly not the answer in the Rocky Mountains, but no one is rushing to claim Jarrett Stidham is either. Denver is likely to take a rookie quarterback somewhere in the 2024 NFL Draft. It is just a matter of how high."
- Cowboys: Running back. "A year after parting with Ezekiel Elliott, the team bid farewell to his replacement, Tony Pollard. Deuce Vaughn, Malik Davis and Snoop Conner are positioned for a hotly contested training camp battle."
- Cardinals: Wide receiver. "Arizona would trot out Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Chris Moore in a three-wide receiver set if the season began tomorrow. Kyler Murray may be their franchise quarterback but they have not exactly done a convincing job of proving it."
You can check out every team's biggest need here.
4. Overreactions and reality checks from free agency
Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about free agency. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several signings that happened around the NFL over the past week to decide if we're all overreacting to them
Statement: Falcons are a Super Bowl contender with Kirk Cousins.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "With Cousins at quarterback, the Falcons are certainly division-title contenders in a weak NFC South. ... Are they a Super Bowl contender with this group? There are still teams in the NFC that are more playoff tested and better than Atlanta. Cousins also has to prove he can make a deep playoff run of his own, too. The Falcons are a playoff team in 2024, but the rest is to be determined."
Statement: Giants are better off without Saquon Barkley.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Giants built a team around Barkley over the last six years, but have just a playoff win and a 34-64-1 record to show for it. They were wise to move on from Barkley, not make an offer and allocate their money elsewhere."
Statement: Eagles are better with Saquon Barkley.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Philadelphia still has Barkley in his prime for at least two years, having him in an offense with A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert as the top targets for Jalen Hurts. The Eagles are in a Super Bowl-contending window and want to take advantage of that."
There are plenty more overreactions from free agency, and you can check those out here.
5. Chiefs could explore option of leaving Kansas City
The Chiefs have been playing in Kansas City since 1963, but there seems to be at least a small chance that the team could be on the move at some point down the road if an upcoming sales tax vote doesn't go their way.
Here's what you need to know about the situation:
- Why the Chiefs want the sales tax to pass. The team recently unveiled plans for an $800 million renovation at Arrowhead Stadium that would upgrade almost everything, and of that total cost, the Chiefs would foot the bill for $300 million, which means $500 million would come from the sales tax.
- Chiefs will make long-term commitment to K.C. if sales tax passes. The Chiefs have said they would sign a 25-year lease at Arrowhead if the sales tax passes, which would include a team option for three five-year extensions on top of that. That would potentially tie the Chiefs to Kansas City for at least 40 more years.
- Chiefs could look to move if the sales tax fails. Chiefs president Mark Donovan was asked what the team's plan might be going forward if the sales tax fails, and he said a relocation would certainly be on the table. "I think they would have to include leaving Kansas City," Donovan said of the team's options if the vote fails. Yikes.
The sales tax is already in place through 2031 and if voters approve the extension, the tax would stay in place until 2064. The Chiefs' current lease at Arrowhead runs through 2031, which means, even if the sales tax fails, they won't be going anywhere for the next few years, but if the tax in Jackson County, Missouri doesn't get approved, that will certainly create some drama between Kansas City and the Chiefs. You can read more about the situation here.
6. Extra points: Jimmy Garoppolo headed to L.A.
It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Rams sign Jimmy Garoppolo. Matthew Stafford has a new backup quarterback after the Rams decided to sign Jimmy G over the weekend. Garoppolo, who spent last season with the Raiders, is getting a one-year deal in Los Angeles. The Rams now have to decide who their backup QB will be for the first two weeks of the season because Garoppolo will be serving a two-game suspension to start the year.
- Browns add another quarterback. The Browns' QB room is starting to get a little crowded. Although they let one Ravens quarterback leave in free agency (Joe Flacco), they brought in another one over the weekend by signing Tyler Huntley to a one-year deal. With Huntley under contract, that means the Browns now have four quarterbacks on the roster: Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Huntley.
- Jaguars finally have a new kicker. Less than a week after getting spurned by Wil Lutz, it looks like the Jaguars have finally found their kicker. According to NFL.com, the team has agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Joey Slye. The former Commanders kicker has impressive range -- he hit a long of 61 last season -- but he's struggled with his extra points. In 2023, he hit just 91.4% of his PAT attempts, which ranked outside the top 25 in the NFL.
- Patriots sign former Vikings receiver. The Patriots added some receiver depth over the weekend by signing K.J. Osborn to a one-year deal that's worth up to $6 million, according to ESPN.com. Osborn caught 48 passes for 540 yards and three touchdowns while catching passes from four different Vikings quarterbacks in 2023.
- Cardinals stadium is getting an upgrade. The Arizona Cardinals are making $15 million in improvements to State Farm Stadium. The upgrades will add more than 500 premium seats that includes 10 casita suites and two field-level clubs. It's a pretty cool design, and you can see video of it here.
- Jets sign Tyron Smith. The Jets made a major move over the weekend by signing former Cowboys tackle Tyron Smith to a one-year deal. According to PFT, Smith's base salary is only $6.5 million, but his total pay could shoot up to $20 million if he meets every incentive.
- Browns hire Mike Vrabel. The former Titans coach WILL be on an NFL sideline in 2024 after taking a job with the Browns. It's not exactly clear what Vrabel's role will be, but he'll be serving as a coaching and personnel consultant.
