NBA Free Agents This Summer Who Need To Have A Good Postseason

The 2024 NBA playoffs can be the ultimate proving ground for soon-to-be free agents. If they help lead their teams on deeper-than-expected postseason runs, that might help them cash in once free agency begins in late June.

The top stars on the free-agent market have nothing left to prove. If LeBron James or Paul George decline their player options for the 2024-25 season, they'll be getting max or near-max offers from multiple teams. The same likely goes for Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, who earned his first All-Star nod this season and could be headed for his first All-NBA team as well. He's almost certainly getting a max deal once the Sixers conduct their major offseason moves.

The same isn't true for every upcoming free agent, though. Some could earn themselves—or cost themselves—a pretty penny based on what they do in the playoffs.

Some combination of age, consistency and role raises questions about certain free agents' outlook moving forward. These players might not be able to answer all of them in the postseason, but a big performance could go a long way toward quieting any concerns.

James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers

Harden is now playing for his fourth NBA team in as many seasons. In 72 games with the Clippers this year, he averaged 16.6 points—his fewest since the 2010-11 campaign—along with 8.5 assists and 5.1 rebounds per game while shooting 42.8% overall and 38.1% from deep.

What is that worth in free agency? More importantly, is that value in line with what Harden expects?

The Clippers finished as the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference, but they're now slight underdogs to the fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in their first-round matchup, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Paul George can become an unrestricted free agent this summer by declining his $48.8 million player option, and there have been nearly as many rumors connecting George with the Philadelphia 76ers as there were last season about Harden potentially rejoining the Houston Rockets in free agency.

Rather than become a free agent, Harden picked up his $35.6 million last summer and demanded that the Sixers trade him. It took four agonizing months, but he ultimately wound up on the Clippers, who desperately needed his playmaking alongside George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers finished the regular season with the league's fourth-best offense, and Harden nearly doubled anyone else on the team in assists.

Still, an early postseason flameout could cause team governor Steve Ballmer to question how much to offer both George and Harden in free agency. The three-year, below-max extension that Leonard signed in January seemed to be a warning shot to George and Harden in case they were expecting full four-year max deals.

There isn't an obvious Harden suitor among the teams with cap space, and the Clippers will likely want to re-sign him regardless of what happens with George. A big playoff performance could go a long way toward cementing that relationship—and perhaps earning himself more money, too.

D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers (Player Option)

Russell was a fixture of the rumor mill leading up to February's trade deadline, as his $17.3 million salary this season made him the obvious salary match if the Lakers were to swing a big deal. They ended up standing pat at the trade deadline and leaning on the lineup that led them on a surprise run to the Western Conference Finals last season, and lo and behold, that same five-man group went on another big run.

Russell was a huge part of that. He finished as the Lakers' third-leading scorer with 18.0 points per game on 45.6% shooting, and he shot a career-best 41.5% from three-point range on 7.2 attempts per game. Russell isn't the pure passing point guard that LeBron James has clamored to play with for years, although his partnership with James and Anthony Davis is vastly better than their previous pairing with Russell Westbrook.

The Lakers face the New Orleans Pelicans in the play-in tournament Tuesday night after just playing on Sunday. James (28 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds) and Davis (30 points, 11 rebounds) shouldered the majority of the load in that game, but Russell chipped in a tidy 19 points on 6-of-13 shooting (including 5-of-10 from three). If he replicates that performance in the play-in tournament, he might help the Lakers book a first-round date with the defending champion Denver Nuggets.

If the Lakers lose to the Pelicans on Tuesday, they'll face the winner of the Sacramento Kings-Golden State Warriors game for the No. 8 seed on Friday. Whoever wins that game will take on the No. 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder, whom the Lakers might be able to exploit given their lack of interior heft. Either way, Russell would be in a win-or-go-home game Friday, so he'd have another national spotlight to take advantage of.

Russell has an $18.7 million player option for the 2024-25 season, which is nearly $6 million more than the projected $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, so he could just pick that up if he anticipates a chilly free-agent market. But if he helps the Lakers go on another big playoff run, he should be able to clear a $20 million annual salary with ease.

Jonas Valančiūnas, New Orleans Pelicans

Valančiūnas is in a precarious situation heading into Tuesday's play-in game against the Lakers. On Sunday, he played only seven minutes and finished with more turnovers (four) than rebounds (three) or points (two). Backup center Larry Nance Jr. played 31 minutes and had 13 points on 5-of-8 shooting, six rebounds and four assists.

That Lakers game was emblematic of a season-long trend for Valančiūnas and the Pelicans. Valančiūnas is playing only 23.5 minutes per game—his fewest since the 2018-19 season—because head coach Willie Green has been quick to downsize with Nance or even Zion Williamson as his small-ball center.

The Pelicans outscored opponents by 3.9 points per 100 possessions in 1,925 regular-season minutes with Valančiūnas on the court, but they had an even better net rating (plus-5.1) with him off the floor. Pelicans lineup data is noisy this year because of how many players missed 10-plus games, but Valančiūnas' limited minutes suggest that Green felt a smaller role would be best for him and the team.

If Valančiūnas is transitioning into more of a spot starter/bench big, his contract might plummet accordingly. He's earning $15.4 million this year in the second season of his two-year, $30.1 million extension that he signed with New Orleans in October 2021. It's unclear if he'll even crack eight figures per year on his next deal.

A big performance against the Davis and the Lakers on Tuesday to help the Pelicans clinch a playoff spot might go a long way for Valančiūnas' prospects of cashing in this summer. Ditto if he holds his own against Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets in the first round of the playoffs or Kings big man Domantas Sabonis in a win-or-go-home game Friday.

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

Thompson had an up-and-down season that included his coming off the bench for the first time since his rookie season. He bounced between the starting lineup and the bench from mid-February through late March, but since reentering the starting lineup, Thompson has averaged 21.8 points per game on 49.1% shooting overall and 4.2 three-pointers per game on 41.6% shooting from deep.

In the Warriors' four regular-season games against the Kings this year, Thompson averaged 17.0 points per game on 43.6% shooting and went 8-of-24 from long range. In last year's seven-game playoff series against them, he averaged 20.6 points on 42.5% shooting and knocked down 3.7 threes per game at a 35.6% clip.

In a win-or-go-home game, one hot or cold shooting night could be the difference between advancing to the playoffs or heading into the offseason. Recent injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter make the Kings more vulnerable along the wing, too. If Keon Ellis draws the primary assignment on Steph Curry, the Kings might put De'Aaron Fox on Thompson even though he's giving up three inches.

Thompson reportedly turned down a two-year extension "in the range of $48 million" ahead of the season, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, but he may be forced to take a smaller deal that aligns lengthwise with Curry and head coach Steve Kerr's contracts. Warriors governor Joe Lacob has already proclaimed that he's hoping to get the Warriors out of the luxury tax next season, which would require significant paring.

Thompson told Logan Murdock of The Ringer that he'd be open to taking a reduced role to stay with the Warriors, as playing alongside Curry and Draymond Green is "a bond for life" and "probably the best part of the job." If the two sides can't come to terms on an agreement, the Orlando Magic are reportedly lurking as a legitimate suitor to pry him away from Golden State.

Tobias Harris, Philadelphia 76ers

NBA players in the final year of their contracts often play at an unsustainably high level, only to come crashing down after they sign their new deals. Harris is doing basically the polar opposite of that.

Harris is averaging 17.1 points on 48.6% shooting, 6.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists in 33.9 minutes per game, but he's shooting only 34.9 percent from deep on 3.7 attempts per game. He hasn't shot that poorly over a full season since the 2016-17 campaign, his final full year in Detroit. (Ironically, he shot only 32.6% from deep in 26 games with the Sixers in 2018-19, right before they re-signed him to his five-year, $180 million contract.)

When Sixers star center Joel Embiid went down with a torn meniscus in late January, it opened a window of opportunity for Harris and the rest of the Sixers' starters. While Tyrese Maxey and Kelly Oubre Jr. took advantage by seizing larger offensive roles, Harris' output was impossible to predict on a night-to-night-basis.

Harris' decline in three-point volume might be the final dealbreaker for his future with the Sixers. They need floor-spacers and specialists around Embiid and Maxey, whereas Harris is more of a jack-of-all-trades and master of none. He has an underrated post-up game, but he isn't particularly efficient in isolations or in inverted pick-and-rolls.

Harris remains a starting-caliber player, but he's always been wildly overpaid relative to his on-court contributions. Unless he makes a huge impact in the playoffs, he might not even be able to earn half as much on his next contract, and it likely won't be with the Sixers. They seem to be eyeing much bigger prizes thanks to their ability to create up to $65 million in salary-cap space this summer.

Kelly Oubre Jr., Philadelphia 76ers

Despite averaging more than 20 points per game with the Charlotte Hornets in 2022-23, it took Oubre until late September this past offseason to sign a one-year, minimum-salary deal with the Sixers. This season, he's averaging 15.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 1.5 assists while shooting 44.2% overall and 31.2% from three on 4.8 attempts per game.

In other words, Oubre putting up numbers not far off from Harris, except he's on a minimum contract and Harris is on a near-max deal. On Friday, Embiid even said Oubre has been the Sixers' third-best player. If he keeps that up in the playoffs, he won't be settling for a min deal this summer.

Any questions about Oubre's ability to contribute to a contender should be gone after this season. He's still guilty of too many turnovers and ill-advised shots, but his fearlessness in attacking the rim is second to none. He looks to detonate no matter who is standing in his way, which can serve as a huge energizer when he connects.

If the Sixers do succeed in landing a max star via trade or free agency this summer, they may find it difficult to afford Oubre as well. They'd be limited to offering a starting salary of less than $17 million per year, which is roughly in line with the four-year extension that Grayson Allen just signed with the Phoenix Suns on Monday, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

If Oubre is hoping for $20 million or more per year on his next contract, he'll need to carry his strong regular-season performance over to the playoffs and hope that the Sixers fall slightly short of adding another max star this offseason.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.