Unlike the other majors, the PGA Championship is the only that is exclusive to professional golfers. No amateurs will be a part of the 2024 PGA Championship field when play tees off Thursday, May 16 from Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville. The field of pros hopes to take advantage of what has historically been a course with numerous birdie opportunities, as the average winning score from the three previous PGA Championships at Valhalla is 15-under-par. Rory McIlroy won the last major held at this course in 2014, while Brooks Koepka enters the PGA Championship 2024 as the defending champion.
McIlroy (10-1) and Koepka (16-1) are looking up to Scottie Scheffler in the 2024 PGA Championship odds. The Masters winner is the 4-1 PGA Championship favorite, followed by Jon Rahm (9-1). Ludvig Aberg, who was runner-up at the Masters in his first major start, is 16-1. Before locking in any 2024 PGA Championship picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings or FanDuel, or finalizing PGA Championship props and PGA Championship Pick Six entries, be sure to see the 2024 PGA Championship golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
McClure's model correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.
The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.
In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson, and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 11 majors entering the weekend and hit the Masters three straight years. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now with the PGA Championship 2024 field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 PGA Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 PGA Championship: Brooks Koepka, a three-time PGA champion and one of the favorites, stumbles and doesn't even crack the top 10. Koepka has five major tournament wins on his resume and a reputation for elevating his level of play in big events. However, his last two major starts haven't gone well as he was 45th at the Masters, which followed a 64th-place finish at last year's Open Championship. He's failed to shoot par in each of his last seven rounds at major tournaments.
After notching three tournament wins in 2023, including last year's PGA Championship, it has been tough sledding for Koepka in 2024. He has no victories, or even top-fives, and across his six starts, he has three times as many finishes outside the top 25 (three) as he has inside the top 10 (one). He played Valhalla at the 2014 PGA Championship and finished in a tie for 15th place, but that placement ranks just eighth out of his 11 career PGA Championship starts.
Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 31-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Thomas hasn't had the best run at recent majors, as he's missed the cut in four of his last five majors. However, the one cut he made was at last year's PGA Championship, and this is clearly his favorite major event. He won this tournament just two years ago, his second victory after also being the 2017 PGA champion. Also, Thomas has had more top-fives at the PGA Championship than top-fives at every other major tournament combined.
Thomas is off to a solid start this season, with a pair of top-10s. He also has strong metrics across the board, ranking among the top 12 of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green, birdie average and strokes gained: approach the green. Add in that Thomas is a Louisville native who will have the fan support at a major he's most comfortable at and he has a much better chance to win than his long PGA Championship 2024 odds imply, according to the model. See who else to pick here.
How to make 2024 PGA Championship picks
The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the PGA Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.
2024 PGA Championship odds, field
Get full 2024 PGA Championship picks, best bets, and predictions here.
Scottie Scheffler 4-1
Jon Rahm 9-1
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Ludvig Aberg 16-1
Brooks Koepka 16-1
Xander Schauffele 18-1
Viktor Hovland 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 20-1
Wyndham Clark 20-1
Cameron Smith 22-1
Joaquin Niemann 22-1
Collin Morikawa 25-1
Sam Burns 25-1
Max Homa 25-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 28-1
Tom Kim 28-1
Jordan Spieth 30-1
Bryson DeChambeau 30-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Dustin Johnson 30-1
Justin Thomas 33-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Jason Day 35-1
Cameron Young 35-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Rickie Fowler 45-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Shane Lowry 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Brian Harman 55-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Patrick Reed 65-1
Justin Rose 65-1
Russell Henley 65-1
Sahith Theegala 65-1
Keegan Bradley 75-1
Adam Scott 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Gary Woodland 100-1
Kurt Kitayama 100-1
Daniel Berger 100-1
Louis Oosthuizen 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Si Woo Kim 125-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Thomas Pieters 125-1
Abraham Ancer 125-1
J.T. Poston 125-1
Sepp Straka 125-1
Mito Pereira 150-1
Harris English 150-1
Phil Mickelson 150-1
Ryan Fox 150-1
Adam Hadwin 150-1
Sergio Garcia 150-1
Seamus Power 175-1
Denny McCarthy 175-1
Robert MacIntyre 175-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 175-1
Davis Riley 175-1
Aaron Wise 175-1
Marc Leishman 175-1
Billy Horschel 200-1
Harold Varner III 200-1
Jason Kokrak 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 225-1
Francisco Molinari 225-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1
