Inflation stats this morning. Budget excess in the afternoon. Once the gory details are known, we’ll tell you what it means and what to do about it. Meanwhile we need to discuss the Elephant in the room.
Of all the ‘isms’ in society, only one is still acceptable. In fact, it’s everywhere. Ageism. It’s cool to dis and dismiss people just because they get old. The irony is, it happens to everyone.
Denying you’re on this journey has serious financial implications. Retirement’s long and most are unprepared. Twenty years. Maybe thirty (or more once AI steals your job). It takes a long time to get ready to retire, and apparently we’re getting worse at it. Lots of people – accountants, actuaries, advisors, bankers, economists (but not many politicians) – worry we’re headed for a retirement crisis is epic proportions.
There are five reasons that gobs of people are pooched. And they don’t yet know.
First, realize what’s going on. For decades we knew a demographic timebomb was embedded in our midst. And it’s about to blow.
Here’s an NIA report (“Perspectives on Growing Older in Canada”) that found a quarter of people over 50 – still working – don’t make enough money now to cover living expenses. Another 40% say they can get by, but set aside nothing. Obviously they’re saving zippo for the future. Meanwhile the fastest growing cohort in society is people between 75 and 79. Breathing down their necks are the 85-year-olds.
So will you have enough to live a good life between, say, sixty and eighty-five? Obviously CPP and OAS won’t do it. They were never designed to support you. And never will, unless you live frugal, cheap and denied.
It’s coming, In seven years Canada will join Japan as a ‘super aged’ society, where more than 25% of the population are seniors. Besides ballooning OAS payments so they become the greatest single expenditure of government, consider health care. Today about a fifth of the population are over 65. But these same people consumer half of all the health care. By 2040 the wrinklies will account for 71% of all health expenditures. Just imagine what they might do to personal taxes (for those still working then – today’s Millennials, Zs and Alphas).
Gulp.
A major survey by accounting firm Deloitte found 86% of people 50 to 64 are at financial risk that would see them running out of money in retirement. Of people just entering retirement, more than half (55%) have to downscale their lifestyles in order to avoid outliving their capital. These are solidly middle-class folks. They’re not in the 31% of retirees trying to live solely on government assistance. And they’re not the 14% who are ‘retirement ready’. There are only 429,000 of them in Canada, and 2.5 million who are not.
Here’s is the graphic Deloitte uses to show the sorry state of current retiring Canadians.
Source: Deloitte. Click to enlarge.
This a mess. And while we have cabinet minsters in charge of diversity and inclusion, families and children and rural economic development (plus 37 more), there’s nobody in charge of getting ready for the demographic tidal wave that will whack the economy, topple society and Hoover the treasury. So, you’re on your own.
And what is this happening?
First, we live too long. Life expectancy is headed for 84 years. It used to be that men retired at 65 and croaked two years later (the ladies lasted longer – still do). Now we need to finance decades without a paycheque.
Second, workplace pensions are fading fast. Only a third are in some kind of plan, compared with half fifty years ago. Defined benefit pensions are available mostly to government workers, while other plans are defined-contribution in nature, the bulk of which are stuffed in crappy mutual funds.
Third, we suck at retirement savings. RRSP contributions have been falling for a decade. Almost 80% of the money in TFSAs is in savings accounts, low-yield GICs or other near-cash assets – lacking the growth so clearly needed. Deloitte found a third of all working Canadians, including one in five people close to retirement age, have never saved anything for the future. Nothing.
So, fourth, it’s financial illiteracy which is endangering the years to come. Too many Canadians are labouring under the false assumption ‘the government’ will look after them in retirement, or that their living costs will plunge once they stop working, or that ‘the market’ is too scary and risky to invest in, or they’re simply unaware of how to budget, where to grow money or how to use the tools they’re given, like tax shelters.
And, yes, consuming vast amounts of income and burying millions in lifelong debt payments, is residential real estate. It is the beast feeding on retirement, when most people think it’s their only ticket out of penury.
We now owe $2.1 trillion in mortgages alone, increasing by $12.6 billion per year. Every conceivable aspect of home ownership is getting more expensive, from property tax to utilities, online connectivity, insurance, all the stuff at Home Depot and the levies, fees and commissions real estate generates. Lately the housing market has flatlined. If rates don’t fall, the economy stutters or confidence fades, Canada could easily have a housing crisis. Then what?
So, it’s choice time. You can plan on being a happy, secure old snort. Or you can be the ageist grasshopper. But nobody gets out of here alive.
About the picture: “Here is Doodles enjoying the beach side,” writes Delusional Gus. “He loves to go on self guided tours around Mystic beach BC, but not to worry, he always returns home. Thanks for your insights, after your Dr.Garth post we’ve sold the condo, maxed out the TFSA, opened a TFSA for baby girl to start compounding and will open a FHSA to purchase a house in the future. Trying our best to have a B&D and retire before 60 with the same income we have now! Rented a 3bd in Vic’s outskirts and have space, and no debt, still paying less than the condo mortgage if counting the taxes and strata. Good job, hopefully you can rescue more people.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.
164 comments ↓
These early posts are making me nervous about what’s coming during the day!
Is it possible to receive CPP & OAS while living outside of Canada?
I’m starting to think that the people who retire in more affordable countries had a point.
“ChatGPT, publish a blog post of 500-1000 words each day before 9am in the style of G.T. from greaterfool.ca”
Wait a minute…was gratergool.ca the original ChatGT, before the tech creeps added a P to it?
—
#120 wallflower on 04.15.24 at 8:20 pm
reservation gas $1.44 today
>>
When the gap was a few cents, the market share grab was small, but these reservation gas stations are now starting to be well placed to grab some market share. Pop in, fill up the tank with gas, trunk with smokes…you’re SET!
Appreciate what your First Nations are doing for you.
Way early today Garth! Thought the dog looked a bit different from yesterday. Going to post again later after the budget?
Therein lies another big misconception. That Millenials and GenZs are all going to have big inheritances after their parents pass.
So, better not count on that for their housing strategy.
Garth, there is more.
Men. More specifically bald men.
Think about it. Today you can’t make fun of anything, but you can make fun of bald men.
Again, it happens to some, and it certainly isn’t by choice. Maybe genetic. Maybe they used the wrong shampoo. Whatever the case, it’s fair to make fun of bald dudes. Can’t do it to bald women, as Chris Rock clearly illustrated to us all. But Bald Man, fair game.
So hey, wrinkles, you’re not alone. And if you’re a bald wrinkly, maybe you deserve a little extra compassion? :-)
> A major survey by accounting firm Deloitte found 86% of people 5 to 64 are at financial risk that would see them running out of money in retirement.
50 to 64?
As I’ve said here for years, it will be the ones with strong families that survive, just as it always has been throughout history.
The government can’t love you, even if it had the money to comfortably warehouse you, feed you and provide healthcare for you, which it doesn’t.
Turmoil is coming, not everyone will want to go down with the sinking ship as the currency becomes more worthless and the government prints more of it to pay its bills.
Many strong families today also have relatives in other countries and play various forms of arbitrage or have escape plans if things go sideways. Keep those bonds strong.
For the rest, it is like watching a car crash in slow motion, but hard to feel sorry, especially for young people who have choices.
I’m watching the next generation, especially young women, who choose to live together unmarried with no commitments, sharing the rent while they party their 20’s away, and will become like way too many broke, single 50 something women that I know. They all vote Lib/NDP hoping the Govt. will be their daddy.
The Govt. can’t save people from themselves, look after yourself and your family.
pop the bubble pop the bubble pop the bubble pop the bubble.
2.9%? MY FOOT!
SHOW US THE RAW DATA!
SHOW US WHAT IS IN THE BASKET!
Considering what they feed children in schools for the morning meal vs. what they used to, before long the basket will be BBQ flavoured packaging popcorn fill and all-seasoned recyclable cardboard along with tap water. Inflation result: 2.9%
>
Can I access raw CPI data for my own calculations?
The information collected for the purposes of calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is confidential as defined by the Statistics Act. Thus, Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any data that would divulge information obtained under the Statistics Act that relates to any identifiable person, business or organization without the prior knowledge or the consent in writing of that person, business or organization.
Therefore, we are unable to provide access to our raw data. The CPI raw data cannot be made available through the Regional Data Centre (RDC) nor the Data Liberation Initiative (DLI).
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes/faq
Make it rain Deputy Prime Minister of Canada.
MAKE IT RAIN!
I think this is mostly correct, there is a lot of ageism out there.
I cannot even count how many times I have heard my generation described as “moisters”, just one example.
Nice graphic, but what are the $$$ that define each category, or are these just perceptions. Not everybody needs a $2 million RSP to retire comfortably or feel secure.
I ran into a guy I used to work with years ago who himself just retired at 59 – GM pension(I think). Not bad….but your house better be paid off…
Anywho, he was with his dewy eyed 19 yo son. They were on their way to enlist him in the army…for the pension.
Og
Nobody gets out of here alive. So leave ‘here’ a better place. And be prepared for the rest of eternity.
Maybe if you paid the Amazons some decent wages the grammar and spelling in postings like this wouldn’t be so bad.
OK, so answer your own question. How many million $CDN die it take for your average Canadian multi millionaire to safely retire? Do you retire in Canada or go somewhere tropical and cheap? How much? What’s the bottom line. Is it $150,000? $ 250,000? Dividends, Annuities? Asking for a friend.
I can retire in Maui on $100k. I can live very well in Thailand for $100K. I’d like to hear some real life experiences from the few here in the position to retire internationally. I travel a lot, have worked in some pretty exotic places making USD like a bandit. But what about you? Are you staying in Canada, why?
Wow wow wow!
Garth has turned to Malthusianism.
What happened? Not long ago it was all Goldilocks and now all that is left is the bears.
#4 Bald Eagle on 04.16.24 at 9:00 am
Garth, there is more.
Men. More specifically bald men.
Think about it. Today you can’t make fun of anything, but you can make fun of bald men.
Again, it happens to some, and it certainly isn’t by choice. Maybe genetic. Maybe they used the wrong shampoo. Whatever the case, it’s fair to make fun of bald dudes. Can’t do it to bald women, as Chris Rock clearly illustrated to us all. But Bald Man, fair game.
So hey, wrinkles, you’re not alone. And if you’re a bald wrinkly, maybe you deserve a little extra compassion? :-)
—————————————————————-
Vin Diesel, Jason Statham, Bruce Willis, Danny Devito – all bald and no one is taking shots at them.
It’s funny that Mils/GenZs are habitually blaming older generation for hoarding all the wealth. Turns out not exactly being the case.
#131 Wrk.dover on 04.16.24 at 6:59 am
factual numbers, not my opinion!
—
There’s a reason the rabble (listed below) is going on about renewable energy
#23 Re-Cowtown on 04.15.24 at 10:23 am
#67 Dr. V on 04.15.24 at 1:30 pm
#98 Alois on 04.15.24 at 5:29 pm
#100 Bdwy on 04.15.24 at 5:33 pm
#113 Another Deckchair on 04.15.24 at 7:37 pm
California has been killing it on renewables lately and the neanderthals can’t stand it. The O+G industry has a long history of smearing competitors hence the rabble getting all counterfactually frothy.
California Exceeds 100% of Energy Demand With Renewables Over a Record 30 Days
It works. Getting to 100% for 100% of the time will be tough. But the early, easy yards will have a big impact. Good job California.
So there are, or will be, a lot of seniors who can’t afford to retire. Let’s look on the bright side here. In that one in a trillion chance this labour shortage we keep hearing about is actually for real then there will be a lot of seniors looking for a job to supplement their income. That should help with this labour shortage.
Scary numbers indeed.
Financial illiteracy is rampant in this and many other countries.
Basic instruction on saving money and paying your debts should be a part of the (Math?, Social Studies?) curriculum for several years.
Starting early…say in grade 7 and up to grade 10.
Just a few weeks per school year.
Save the politically correct indoctrination for University students that have to pay for it themselves …
Excellent and true post, Garth!
Good inflation print, happy to be wrong in this case.
Most people do not even try to save because they believe it is impossible to save up for what is needed for retirement. The number trotted out by financial planners is now $1,700,000 to have a good retirement, with numbers like that people just jam their money into housing and hope to rent out rooms and live off government support.
Your own industry is pushing people away from savings by using scare tactics of unachievable numbers akin to realtors saying “buy now or be priced out forever” which in hindsight they were right.
Watch the financial news and when the market experiences volatility the talking heads who probably have no skin the game talk about it crashing or having a massive correction, yet when the market moves up like from November of last year until February of this year not a peep on a spectacular run of gains(even better when leverage was used).
The many people I know experiencing financial hardship due to mortgage payments doubling is unreal, but real estate is still the best investment and you never lose money on it according to them. They are putting money away for their retirement because their retirement plan is housing and as soon as one house is paid down they buy another. The second house is put into the other family members name so it has tax free growth along with the rent which is not required to be reported because it is multiple members of the same family pooling the rent to pay it down. Rinse and repeat as I know families that own three and four houses together now, that can be sold tax free.
Name an investment which has grown tax free at the rate housing has and provides tax free cash flow as well and requires no financial acumen other than to sign a mortgage document.
#6 AM in MN on 04.16.24 at 9:10 am
I’m with you in principal, though maybe I’m more optimistic about people.
For most of history, most people worked until they died – which wasn’t terribly old. The main insurance against old age was the simple principal of “raise competent and compassionate children who don’t hate you”. If you didn’t have children and expected to get old, you adopted some (there were plenty of orphans back then too). The back-up plan for the truly unfortunate was to rely on the compassion of your neighbors, so being a good neighbor in your prime was also important.
People live a lot longer now – which is a great thing. It is also unprecedented. Our current direction is unsustainable, it’s true. But the primary thing that sets people apart from animals is that we have unlimited capacity for adaptation. Change is inevitable, but how that change will manifest is anybody’s guess, because we’ve never faced a challenge like this before.
It’s a shame because investing has been solved. The government should have public service messages relentlessly broadcasting how easy and low cost it is to be a great investor capturing handsome market returns without excess risk or silly advice.
I’ll retire at 53, living free on the back of an ultra low cost, passive index portfolio. Simple to implement, easy to understand, dirt cheap and extremely effective.
#8 InfLIEtion
the last blush I tried to find numbers, some blog dogs pointed me in a direction….I’ll see if I can dig up the links.
The damning part of the the CPI is only ~28% of the index is related to housing….if someone can send that link along again it would be appreciated.
I am curious on how many folk in Canada only have 28% of their take home go to shelter costs…
Using a more realistic shelter cost ratio put inflation into the double digits…but we can’t have that now can we? Let’s just tax a few people a little more and pretend we are doing something!
#8 InfLIEtion on 04.16.24 at 9:12 am
2.9%? MY FOOT!
SHOW US THE RAW DATA!
SHOW US WHAT IS IN THE BASKET!
Considering what they feed children in schools for the morning meal vs. what they used to, before long the basket will be BBQ flavoured packaging popcorn fill and all-seasoned recyclable cardboard along with tap water. Inflation result: 2.9%
>
Can I access raw CPI data for my own calculations?
The information collected for the purposes of calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is confidential as defined by the Statistics Act. Thus, Statistics Canada is prohibited by law from releasing any data that would divulge information obtained under the Statistics Act that relates to any identifiable person, business or organization without the prior knowledge or the consent in writing of that person, business or organization.
Therefore, we are unable to provide access to our raw data. The CPI raw data cannot be made available through the Regional Data Centre (RDC) nor the Data Liberation Initiative (DLI).
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes/faq
———
A more visual way to look at it.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/2018016/cpi-ipc-eng.htm
Why is Canada about to become a “super aged” society? We admitted over 1.2 million immigrants last year including many young foreign students. I thought our massive immigration intake was supposed to solve our “age bomb” crisis. Canada doesn’t need more senior immigrants, we’ve already got too many of those.
Great blog post today, most Canadians are pooched. Of the 14% that are ready, since they are financially literate, many are looking for strategies to reduce their tax in retirement. This includes moving out of Canada to lower cost jurisdictions. It’s possible to get good health care out of Canada, at a fraction of what you pay in taxes.
Oh, and let’s not forget the impact of the growing epidemics in obesity, loneliness, depression, and anxiety… wealth divide and (proven) health implications for the poorer… will have on our social systems in the future. Not to mention that the data isn’t out yet on the health implications of having a pot shop on every corner – but the idea to dupe the masses so we don’t cause a fuss is clear as day…
Also, ever heard of Bryan Johnson? Normalization for the weathly could be next.
Og
Budget 2024 ‘likely to be the worst’ in decades, former BoC governor says
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/budget-2024-likely-to-be-the-worst-in-decades-former-boc-governor-says-1.6848214
Nice to see the “old establishment” has zero confidence in the current “clown car that is careening off the cliff” and taking us all with it.
A major survey by accounting firm Deloitte found 86% of people 5 to 64 are at financial risk
_______________________________
You might edit 50 to 64
Wow inflation ticks up while the economy is sagging. This will truly be late 70’s all over again. Stagflation is the worst of both world and Paul Volker will be coming out of retirement to jack rates again.
Boy, that happened fast!
Smoking apparently is down in Canada. I would attribute a heavy barrage of marketing campaigns over the years. Hammer it home long enough and it will finally sink in.
Maybe the government could do the same in regards to preparing for retirement. Continue to hammer it home via various ongoing marketing campaigns until that too sinks in. Not just the financial aspect but also physical wellbeing as well as social network strength and other components too. Introduce it in elementary school in an age appropriate manner so that by the time they leave high school, they have a good grasp of the importance of preparing for the future.
The canary in the coal mine – gold, is signaling more inflation to come without rate increases.
If RE was a UFC fighter it has already tapped out, imagine what rate increases going forward will do.
#24 Millmech on 04.16.24 at 10:41 am
Most people do not even try to save because they believe it is impossible to save up for what is needed for retirement. The number trotted out by financial planners is now $1,700,000 to have a good retirement, with numbers like that people just jam their money into housing and hope to rent out rooms and live off government support.
Your own industry is pushing people away from savings by using scare tactics of unachievable numbers akin to realtors saying “buy now or be priced out forever” which in hindsight they were right.
Watch the financial news and when the market experiences volatility the talking heads who probably have no skin the game talk about it crashing or having a massive correction, yet when the market moves up like from November of last year until February of this year not a peep on a spectacular run of gains(even better when leverage was used).
The many people I know experiencing financial hardship due to mortgage payments doubling is unreal, but real estate is still the best investment and you never lose money on it according to them. They are putting money away for their retirement because their retirement plan is housing and as soon as one house is paid down they buy another. The second house is put into the other family members name so it has tax free growth along with the rent which is not required to be reported because it is multiple members of the same family pooling the rent to pay it down. Rinse and repeat as I know families that own three and four houses together now, that can be sold tax free.
Name an investment which has grown tax free at the rate housing has and provides tax free cash flow as well and requires no financial acumen other than to sign a mortgage document.
———
$1.7 million is very realistic. Per household or per person. Especially if you work until 65. With or without real estate. It’s even realistic at age 45. Even 40.
It’s all about setting priorities, having a plan and sticking to your plan.
#26 Just Buy XGRO
XGRO? Really? Diversified yes, but I prefer to have the majority of my ETF’s in VFV. Absolutely no comparison in performance and diversified in the S&P 500 which has a killer track record for about 100 years.
XGRO seems like lazy investing to me, IMHO.
#27 Joe Schmoe
The damning part of the the CPI is only ~28% of the index is related to housing….if someone can send that link along again it would be appreciated.
I am curious on how many folk in Canada only have 28% of their take home go to shelter costs…
Using a more realistic shelter cost ratio put inflation into the double digits…but we can’t have that now can we? Let’s just tax a few people a little more and pretend we are doing something!
_________
One number doesn’t fit all. There are a lot of people paying a much higher percentage. And a lot a much lower percentage – those whose mortgage is paid off. It’s an average. Your mileage will vary.
#28 Travelling
Thanks!
Looks like guns and ammo will be an integral part of the average Canadian retirement plan in coming years.
Your writing has a way of resonating with me on a deep level. I appreciate the honesty and authenticity you bring to every post. Thank you for sharing your journey with us.
It’s probably going to be a bit of both:
– Increasing the RE taxes to kill the love for RE investment
– Increase the income + CPP taxes to help the older part of the population.
I understood one thing though.. the goverment doesn’t want the RE prices to fall too much, since this is the nest egg for most Canadian retirees.
#127 Bdwy on 04.15.24 at 10:41 pm
Wrkd dude . You paid some guys to install a system on your roof. I’ve designed and built 2 axis tracker systems, put panels in dozens of locations and have been running custom growing systems for multiple.decades.
______________________________________
My licensed dudes included an Enphase Envoy which logs the observed output of each of the panels every fifteen minutes of each and every day, and permanently stores the data.
It is all accessible to me at my online Enphase account!
I too know of what I say.
More stationery panels aimed several directions is cheaper than a mechanical tracker, because peak wind necessitates robust structural redundancy, so ours aim fixed base to solar midday, at my latitude angle. Logical.
#43 fake mailer on 04.16.24 at 11:42 am
Your writing has a way of resonating with me on a deep level. I appreciate the honesty and authenticity you bring to every post. Thank you for sharing your journey with us.
*****
Nice to see a sincere comment here. You seem like a nice person, but your name is odd.
Hmmm.
One wonders when the West will stop ignoring the reality of the Fentanyl crisis and deal with the govt tax subsidized producers of the raw chemicals needed to manufacture Fentanyl….
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-committee-finds-china-is-subsidizing-american-fentanyl-crisis-2024-04-16/
Are we more addicted to cheap widgets shipped from China while ignoring the obvious?
Payback for the Opium Wars of 150 years ago?
“China continues to provide subsidies in the form of value-added tax rebates to its companies that manufacture fentanyl analogues, precursors and other synthetic narcotics, so long as they sell them outside of China, ….”
“It wants the chaos and devastation that has resulted from this epidemic,….”
“The committee also said in its report that it found no evidence of new criminal enforcement actions by Beijing….”
Just before i retired I thought I was in reasonably good shape. Not stellar, but reasonably manageable. Then two things happened, my wife got to the point of meltdown about living in a wreck of a house that was under years of renovations with no end in sight. Solution, up stakes for a slightly smaller, but vastly better condition { but still quite old } house on the small parcel of land that we had always wanted. Got reasonably good coin for the old dump because the ALR rules on property under 2 acres changed and you could now build 2 houses where you were previously only allowed one. { plus a mobile if you could demonstrate the need for farm help, but who ever could on a single acre with a creek } All fine and dandy, but you never get something for nothing. So I am now a retiree with a mortgage. Not a huge mortgage , but big enough. And a fair bite out of my modest retirement income. Step 2 , the crazy inflation we are seeing. Sure the pension { tin plated at best, really more like zinc }went up a bit. But a drop in the bucket compared to the price surges I see . Insurance, energy , food all substantially higher than the income rise.
In short what looked like a reasonably adequate income on the eve of my retirement now looks very bare indeed.
Yes I could have just said no to my wife’s insistence of moving , but then there would have been all the messy details and expense of the divorce.
If 68% of our population is in a dire retirement scenario……..it says more about our education system and monetary system than individuals.
That’s a massive fail…..
Great post old fella! Lol..
19 Faron
“California has been killing it on renewables lately and the neanderthals can’t stand it.”
—————————————————————-
Good morning F. Not sure why you have described me as “Neanderthal”.
The link you provided states the electrical grid in Cali as
100% renewable for a period of X days.
I’ve often posted the following link, which will supposedly be updated this spring with newer numbers. They are currently from 2019.
https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles/provincial-territorial-energy-profiles-canada.html
Note the electricity production sources for the following provinces. I have included Nuclear as renewable. I dont know if it is recognized as such.
BC – 90% renewables
Manitoba – virtually 100%
Quebec – 99%
Ontario – 90%+
Nfland = 96%
NB – 70%
I dont have older numbers, but I suspect it’s been close to this way for years.
Most of Canada was way ahead of the game. Yes, it would be great if Alberta and Sask created more solar/wind power. Looking forward to the newer numbers. Will keep checking and re-post when available.
T think this piece would have been more impactful had there been some retirement saving $$$ amounts attached to the Deloitte percentages.
It’s far too late. The time to put in motion a housing build-out was years in advance of literally doubling the immigration numbers and literally tripling our temporary population (TFWs, international students).
I saw a statistic recently that to build the number of homes the Liberals are talking about in the next 6 years, we’d need one new home every two minutes. I checked it and the math checks out. How can anyone even propose this and keep a straight face? We simply don’t have the capacity.
As I keep repeating, any plan to restore housing affordability must involve significant measures to lower housing demand. I gather there will be next to nothing about that in this new housing plan, so it is doomed to failure. I know it, and they surely know it as well. This is all political theatre, and I – and most voters – no longer buy it.
When Bill Maher thinks our country is an international joke, you know you’ve hit rock bottom.
God help us if he ever reads Faron’s posts.
#27 Joe Schmoe on 04.16.24 at 10:54 am
Yes. This was noted in an exchange few weeks back. With a 1/3 of Canadians renting, which one of the renters you know have a 28% cost of shelter? Exactly. The basket of goods used for CPI and the breakdown is a basket case.
Additionally, we don’t know what’s in the basket, actually.
What exactly is in the food basket? What assumptions are there? What substitutions are being made at each calculation cycle?
Is anyone eating any meat anymore according to the CPI? Is it whole beef, ground beef or now just Costco hot dogs? We just don’t know. And we’re not allowed to know what is considered acceptable in this basket.
#28 Travelling
Yes yes yes, percentages. But what about what is actually specifically IN those sections “baskets”? Details…we don’t know. And you know what they say, the devil is in the details.
I noted just recently about TVs. “Household operations, furnishings and equipment” features this item surely. Well, I bough a 60″ a while back for about $1000. I was surprised to learn that a good 60″ today is well under $800 today. Just when you thought TVs couldn’t get cheaper, they do. And of course you can get even cheaper if you shop or not choose a good brand(substitution!).
Is this monthly CPI element causing the reported inflation to drop, while really being false? After all, this isn’t a monthly purchase item, but such meaningful dollar value drops can and surely do contribute to lower CPI data result. And so, TV bought once in a while help to keep CPI reporting down, while substitutions and a 28% shelter component, (which no one believes as valid) surely also help.
Garth,
What concerns me about today’s post is that superannuated tidal wave has political power, and are likely to do what voting blocks do: vote themselves the use of other people’s money. How do those of us who lived responsibly protect ourselves from those who did not, who think that is somehow our problem, and have the power to take what they want?
Garth, I’m serious about this. This could turn Canada into a basket case (not to mention ruin my retirements plans.)
Loved your write up on retirement Garth, saw it with many in my working career, never listened, know it all’s that new cup all, now they scream their entitlements. Sorry you are not getting mine, call Trudeau he gives away my share to the non-savers every day, he has plenty more to give out, just stay tuned later on today to see if you are on the list.
So far what appears to be runner ups in the next Canada election, 18 months out, give or take, I see no one that I will waste my time going to the voting station for. But Trudeau sticks out like a sore thumb the most. You never know, a rising star may surface from the background.
People have short memories about Trudeau, do you remember the blow that Trudeau took personally when during the 2019 election campaign, when a handful of photos came out of him dressed in blackface, a racist caricaturing of Black people. There were three photos: a 2001 yearbook photo when he was a teacher, a photo from when he was in high school, and a video of him as a young man, this alone almost undone the leader, but for some strange reason he escaped the net.
Another embarrassing moment for Justin Trudeau was when he found himself a laughing stock from both countries, after a trip to India in February 2018 where he enthusiastically dressed in various local costume, to the bemusement of Indian officials, “ you were the laughing stock of the whole country Justin, but to stupid or dumb to know it.
Let’s not forget that A photo emerged on the trip of Sophie Grégoire Trudeau with a man named Jaspal Atwal at a reception in Mumbai. Atwal was convicted in 1986 of the attempted murder of an Indian politician. This led to numerous questions about how he ended up at that reception, “go figure because many people cannot,” flukey maybe and maybe not.
Groping allegations: In 2018, a newspaper piece from 2000 emerged: A reporter alleged that Trudeau, who was 28 at the time, was at the Kokanee Summit in Creston, B.C., raising money for a charity. An editorial in the local paper said Trudeau was accused of “groping” and “inappropriately handling” a female reporter during the event, let’s be fair, it was allegations. Reached by CBC in 2018, the woman said “The incident referred to in the editorial did occur, as reported. Mr. Trudeau did apologize the next day. I did not pursue the incident at the time and will not be pursuing the incident further. I have had no subsequent contact with Mr. Trudeau, before or after he became Prime Minister.”
Now with all the in power Federal Governmen Liberal giveaways and handouts to stack up tomorrow’s votes, money handouts to totals that you and I could never count in our dreams and he wants my vote, “sure no problem, Justin”, unequivocally not.
I followed Christie Blackford’s stories over the years, she was an angel of news and a tiger to get the answers, Christie, you are so missed for the readers and followers, may you R.I.P.
Quote of the day: A daydream is a meal at which images are eaten
Excellent post, have to agree that the ostrich maneuver has been the general response to the age time bomb for literal decades now. And yes, lots of Canadians, especially the younger cohorts, have this belief that the government will ride up on the unicorn with bags of loot for all so no need to save or plan for the future. CERB just solidified that belief they could have their financial cake & eat it too:)
#1 ‘Out’ – check out the current rules on CPP/OAS via your handy Government of Canada website. The short answer to your question regarding receipt of those benefits if living abroad is yes, it is possible. Like I said, check out the current rules & keep checking if you intend to live abroad, because what is true today may not be true by the time you reach retirement age. I’d add that ageism isn’t just limited to Canada; while there are plenty of countries with large expat retiree communities the growth in that sector may lead to a curtailment or limitation on said countries continuing to welcome said expats. When countries are restricting visitors due to over tourism, one must believe long term stays are likely to face heightened restrictions as well. For instance, just read a headline regarding Brazil imposing travel restrictions to visitors from both the USA & Canada – I think Mexico as well – where the visa application to visit must include your personal bank statements for 3 months to prove you’ve sufficient income set aside to fund your visit & pay for any medical expenses while visiting. This was apparently in retaliation for Brazilians having to do the same thing when visiting abroad but regardless, not exactly conducive to encouraging visitors. I for one would not wish to provide my personal banking information in order to visit; given how easily said information could be misused kind of puts paid to the notion of visiting in the first place.
Hey Faron;
My first solar experiment was when I was a kid, probably circa 1972. My dad got some solar cells *somewhere* that were monocrystalline single cells, the size of a chocolate chip cookie. Some square, some round. I had one working experiment that ran for something like 30 to 40 years; my mum reminded me of it about a month ago when I went to visit, as it would start up in the morning and stop in the evening.
Solar’s great.
Two buts.
1) the further one goes to the poles, the less solar radiation falls per square metre of ground. Ref my Cos(degrees) comment.
2) I used to harp on here, and other places that we should “just use less energy”.
However, 99.99% of people have zero clue what that means. One or two took it as permission not to exercise.
Maybe, rather than letting Jevons Paradox run us into the ground, we should put our efforts into figuring out how to get the masses using fewer Joules per capita, as, in the long run, it might just help.
Just a thought, for what it’s worth.
Action–> Consequences
@ #4 Bald Eagle
Please avoid using the term bald, because some are sensitive about this condition that isn’t their fault. You need to use the politically correct terminology, and refer to the bald as “follically challenged.”
What’s wrong with DC plans ? These can offer some good choices of funds to invest in. I’ve been in my DC plan for over 25 years, and I figure the rate of return has been around 8% annually. And I do have a plan to cash out tax free eventually.
DB plans cannot be trusted unless you are with the federal government. If there’s even a 1% chance the company goes under, that’s 0.99% chance too much to take. And no chance to avoid taxes.
@#6 AM in MN on 04.16.24 at 9:10 am
As I’ve said here for years, it will be the ones with strong families that survive, just as it always has been throughout history.
The government can’t love you, even if it had the money to comfortably warehouse you, feed you and provide healthcare for you, which it doesn’t.
Turmoil is coming, not everyone will want to go down with the sinking ship as the currency becomes more worthless and the government prints more of it to pay its bills.
Many strong families today also have relatives in other countries and play various forms of arbitrage or have escape plans if things go sideways. Keep those bonds strong.
For the rest, it is like watching a car crash in slow motion, but hard to feel sorry, especially for young people who have choices.
I’m watching the next generation, especially young women, who choose to live together unmarried with no commitments, sharing the rent while they party their 20’s away, and will become like way too many broke, single 50 something women that I know. They all vote Lib/NDP hoping the Govt. will be their daddy.
The Govt. can’t save people from themselves, look after yourself and your family.
–
geez you are a dark soul.
#21 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.24 at 10:27 am
Scary numbers indeed.
Financial illiteracy is rampant in this and many other countries.
Basic instruction on saving money and paying your debts should be a part of the (Math?, Social Studies?) curriculum for several years.
Starting early…say in grade 7 and up to grade 10.
Just a few weeks per school year.”
Exactly my point on my comment to CBC Sunday after hearing a woman on cross country checkup show whine about how she cannot live on $2000 a month, her CPP & OAS. She said a number of times that the government was to blame for not giving her sufficient to live on. Unfortunately Ian Hanomansing seemed to agree with her without saying as much. She obviously never saved anything on her own for retirement. As Garth says the CPP and wrinkly pogey was never intended to give a senior enough to live on.
So I guess the movie Logan’s Run was truly ahead of it’s time… time to fire up the Carousel.
“Financial illiteracy is rampant in this and many other countries.
Basic instruction on saving money and paying your debts should be a part of the (Math?, Social Studies?) curriculum for several years.
Starting early…say in grade 7 and up to grade 10.
Just a few weeks per school year.
Save the politically correct indoctrination for University students that have to pay for it themselves …”
We try that but they lack a certain amount of context to help it make sense. That doesn’t mean we’ll stop trying though.
I make it clear to all of my students that the end goal is to be in control of their time as soon as possible. Most of us have to go to work but if you make a bit of a plan you can quite doing that before you’re in your 70’s.
As for indoctrination, as the old teacher saying goes “If we could indoctrinate them it would be to show up to class on time with a pencil”. Indoctrination hysteria is mostly driven by right-wingers who’d like to privatize education so they can give their friends a cut.
I love that the rapist slanderer Trump is in court over a six figure hush money payment while his net worth has dropped by $2.27 billion since the SPAC merger on shares he can’t sell.
The cold, objective hands of the equity markets are serving sweet justice.
#19 Faron on 04.16.24 at 10:18 am
Re the comment about how well California is doing producing power by renewables. In the link it says that the state has more power than required for between one quarter of an hour to six hours a day.
That is hardly enough to provide for future increases in power demands by electrification of transport, home heating, lawn mowers, etc. As it is when they produce more power now than required if they can sell it off to another state the price per mWh is minimum and does not come close to the cost of producing that power by wind or solar.
“But nobody gets out of here alive.”
This might not actually be true. Interesting discussion to have, for sure.
As this NYTimes piece highlights, the rapid pace of health technology is making the future look very promising. There are other similar reports over the last few years. Life extension and even perpetuity may be just around the corner.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/04/27/magazine/longevity-timeline.html
To sum it up:
Gen Z, Millennials and even Gen Xers born in the early 1960s may have some marvelous life extending technology and medicine within the next 10-20 years. Plus, there is really possibility of lifespans being extended well beyond 125-150 years for these cohorts within the next two decades. Unfortunately this will not likely be available for anyone born before about 1961 due to scientific rollout of what lies ahead and average lifespans. Not unlike self-driving cars in that sense, it may seem slow progress now, but definitely coming in the years ahead.
There is one obvious and logical solution to the problem: raise the retirement age! Whether legislated or de-facto, I don’t care.
Not only do people get older, they are also a lot healthier at 65, and many jobs are arguably not as physically demanding as they used to be.
Besides, with more oldies needing health care (and other necessities), there are bound to be more jobs available that those still in good health can fill.
Invert, always invert said Charlie Munger.
That’s easy for me since I like to think backwards anyhow.
“We now owe $2.1 trillion in mortgages alone, increasing by $12.6 billion per year.”
****************************
“We” don’t owe anything in mortgages. Some of “us” owe a pile to others of us.
The financially literate Canadians are directly or indirectly owed the vast majority of that mortgage and loan money. The financially literate in their old age hoover from the young and from non-financially-literate seniors.
As far as tons of money invested in GIC and deposit accounts and maybe bonds, it’s impossible for that not to be the case since all that mortgage debt is funded by those items and has to be. Very little is funded by bank or other common equity shares.
Okay, that’s your daily inversion. See you tomorrow probably.
“First, we live too long. Life expectancy is headed for 84 years. It used to be that men retired at 65 and croaked two years later (the ladies lasted longer – still do). Now we need to finance decades without a paycheque.”
People really aren’t living that much longer.
“Life expectancy” statistics nearly always mean “life expectancy at birth”, which is very heavily skewed by the (very good) reduction in infant mortality, which dragged down averages for a long time.
In the 1970s, about 85% of people lived to 70 years old.
These days, closer to 95%
What about 80 years old?
75% in the 70s, 85% now.
What was the share of people who got letters from the governor general?
50% in the 70s, 65% now.
The monarch?
15% in the 70s, 30% now.
Enjoy the cheap money while it lasts. Rates are going nowhere but up.
69 Jens on 04.16.24 at 2:57 pm
There is one obvious and logical solution to the problem: raise the retirement age! Whether legislated or de-facto, I don’t care.
Not only do people get older, they are also a lot healthier at 65, and many jobs are arguably not as physically demanding as they used to be.
Besides, with more oldies needing health care (and other necessities), there are bound to be more jobs available that those still in good health can fill.
*******************************
YES!!!
What’s this talk of Open Banking with government oversight of our financial banking access data?
#4 bald eagle
You are so right, I have pics of me in 70-71 with hair to my shoulders, while I sit on my ’66 convertible’s fender.
It’s all gone down the drain, including the music.
Turning 71 next month and my wife is 62. We both retired at 60 and have not had a mortgage for 16 years. Ample investments provide a comfortable life. On your advice we both started CPP at 60. No kids, driving a 2000 Honda Civic and purchasing RE back in the last century made this possible as well as saving and investing since our 20s. This column is bad news for many as they enter the “golden” years. Most of our friends have no plans/expectations for retirement so we feel fortunate.
Re: RE sales declining, this condo has been on the market for 10 days. We live in the building, and it is highly desired in this market (Kitsilano). Usually, properties sell within a few days. The listing says nothing about the single pane windows (very drafty in winter) or that the electrical infrastructure does not allow for stage 2 EV charging.
https://www.rew.ca/buildings/8086/century-house-vancouver-bc
Thank you for everything. A daily dose of hard reality.
Well, Canada conveniently has MAID now. The line forms to the left.
I hear ya Garth, but I am 70, and know a lot of people my age and older.
Never once have I heard of them complain about there financial situation, and I know their pensions are low because I was their manager.
They are accepting life graciously.
I’m sure their are some in dire straits, but many just adjust their lifestyle to what they have.
My grandparents never had company pensions and never had much after suffering thru the depression and major wars, but they never complained about their situations.
#71 Sunshowers on 04.16.24 at 3:24 pm
People really aren’t living that much longer.
“Life expectancy” statistics nearly always mean “life expectancy at birth”, which is very heavily skewed by the (very good) reduction in infant mortality, which dragged down averages for a long time.
**********************
Absolutely right! What matters is life expectancy once having made it to 65 or 70. If you won’t get to 65 retirement is not much of an issue. It’s well known that if a couple gets to 65, there’s over a 50% chance of at least one making it to 90. The average age of death being 82 or whatever it is is irrelevant to that math. I know a couple 89 and 93. Statistically a good chance at least one of such a couple (on average) has another 5 or more years since they made it that far.
idk, the government seems to bail out anyone who has made bad financial decisions lately (covid!). If the liberals or NDP stay in power they’ll take care of the old, but that will make everyone is poor via taxes or devaluation of our currency. If you’ve ever been to an Eastern European country that’s where we’re headed – fast.
I have no doubt they will raise income taxes on the top 1%. Because that will accomplish nothing other then making the envious feel good.
And we can spend this money on more public servants and loans to home builders.
And productivity will continue to fall.
The new wealthy are two government employees. The new protected class, 200K combined income, and gravy pensions. The absolute sweet spot in this economy. God forbid these people pay more, or receive less service.
Well there it is. Capital gains increased from 50% to 66% for anything over $250k.
Why do men on average die younger than women ?
Because they want to !!!
PS Can’t wait for Garth and Co. to discuss the budget.
It is even worse than this:
“Deloitte found a third of all working Canadians, including one in five people close to retirement age, have never saved anything for the future. Nothing.”
A cohort that I know did not even report meaningful income for decades (fraud) and now draw less than $250 per month in CPP and will be going GIS all the way which means untold amounts coming out of current coffers. This is so not sustainable and not even being talked about. Meanwhile, they have paid for $1M+ houses (and some have more than that in real estate generating zero income).
One would think that for every 50 condo buildings constructed, that one nursing home could be built. With the aging population, this could be as big an issue as the lack of housing for the average Joe. As it is in Ontario, you will be forced into any home, possibly kilometres away from your loved ones and with the possibility of married couples going to separate homes. That’s if you’re taking up a hospital bed and there are no vacancies in the three homes of your choice.
Law Society of BC to be disbanded under new legislation
The new law means, in theory, you will be able to have broader access to legal services at a more affordable rate than lawyers. One stakeholder suggests lawyers opposed to the move wish to perpetuate a system that ‘does not work for so many people.’
https://www.biv.com/news/economy-law-politics/law-society-of-bc-to-be-disbanded-under-new-legislation-8589402
================================
COMMENT:
Lawyers? bwhahahaha !!!!
At least the NDP Commie net is cast to entrap all facets of society…no favourites.
“First, we live too long. Life expectancy is headed for 84 years. It used to be that men retired at 65 and croaked two years later (the ladies lasted longer – still do). ” – GT
Life expectancy numbers have dropped in the USA for the past 3 years, mostly due to the fentanyl crisis but there is another cause not being talked about.
The elephant in the room that isn’t being discussed is the 25% rise in many diseases since 2021.
Japan Cancer Data
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onww2X-ecfg
How about a cabinet minister in charge of Financial Literacy?
It’s really confusing to know how to live one’s life sometimes. Like you can save, invest, live frugally, forgo expensive vacations and dining out and drive modest vehicles, live in a modest house, work a soul sucking but stable well paying job, etc, and then be taxed into oblivion on money you earn through those savings and investments (and god forbid, wealth accumulated) in order to pay for folks who don’t save and who won’t make those sacrifices of work the same types of jobs, so that they can have a good time while young and healthy enough to make a hand-to-mouth living, and then later live off government cheese when they’re old and broke. Where’s the incentive? Sometimes I wonder if I’ve thought about it all wrong, if I’ve swallowed the “bootstraps and self-reliance” cool-aid and should simply have whooped it up, or taken bigger risks. The government will just give you money, food, shelter, and health care if you need it, right? Even dental and drugs soon. If time is the true currency of life, why waste it working beyond the bare necessity. Go full BaristaFIRE.
I’m not wired like that, but I sure wonder if I’m the greater fool sometimes.
Not just the young. I remember my brother laughing when I received my first dividend increase from a CDN bank decades ago. “Ha, ha … $25 … big deal”. Now he is virtually homeless at 75 and doesn’t speak to me. I won’t help him with $$$ although I suggested solid financial advice many many times. What can you do when a grasshopper can’t stop hopping?
Time to re-introduce the window tax. If you have lots of windows you pay a lot more tax.
If you brick yourself in and insulate you control your carbon footprint.
I guess I should’ve been a liberal.
If it weren’t for my Ronnie Reagan frame of mind I believe you could really get innovative taxing people to death for sport.
Yikes. A hike on capital gains tax. If we thought there wasn’t enough capital investment already, I wonder how much $$ leaves Canada now.
There are 3 ways for governments to reduce deficits:
1. Increase taxes (bad option generally)
2. Decrease spending (better option, but a political landmine).
3. Increase productivity. This is the key! And completely ignored by the current government(s)…
The theme of todays budget is “generational fairness”. Who better to decide whats fair than our more than generous Lib/Dip government. Dr. Garth’s theme today is also “generational fairness”. But he says an individuals choices alone make it fair. That entails a regular work schedule, delayed gratification, no fun, a disciplined lifetime agenda. That is “old thought, old ways, old habits”. Modernized lil potato & his twitchy smurf follow correct thought of late great Economystic. ” A free lunch for everybody & nobody working in the kitchen.”
Sigh. Every time I hear ‘economic fairness’ by the government in this country, their hands get a little deeper in my pockets.
Never would they consider cutting their own spending instead…
Not sure you actually made the point that the younger generations should be nicer to the boomers, Garth…
#48 Dragonfly58 on 04.16.24 at 12:14 pm
Cheer up it’s sunny here in Langley, well it was until your your usual dark cloud creating post.
Pooched. Yep. They gone and done it.
“The inclusion rate—the portion of capital gains on which tax is paid—for capital gains for individuals with more than $250,000 in capital gains in a year will increase from one-half to two-thirds.”
Cited from https://canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2024/04/tax-fairness-for-every-generation.html
#52 Concerned Citizen on 04.16.24 at 12:52 pm
I saw a statistic recently that to build the number of homes the Liberals are talking about in the next 6 years, we’d need one new home every two minutes.
_____________________________________
So far this year, there is one house presently under construction in my county. How many counties are in Canada?
#19 Faron on 04.16.24 at 10:18 am
#131 Wrk.dover on 04.16.24 at 6:59 am
factual numbers, not my opinion!
—
There’s a reason the rabble (listed below) is going on about renewable energy
#23 Re-Cowtown on 04.15.24 at 10:23 am
#67 Dr. V on 04.15.24 at 1:30 pm
#98 Alois on 04.15.24 at 5:29 pm
#100 Bdwy on 04.15.24 at 5:33 pm
#113 Another Deckchair on 04.15.24 at 7:37 pm
California has been killing it on renewables lately and the neanderthals can’t stand it. The O+G industry has a long history of smearing competitors hence the rabble getting all counterfactually frothy.
etc. etc.
================================
COMMENT:
OK Faron…whatever.
You tend to surf the guard rails of logic.
Like EV’s…Solar Panel industry relies on Gov’t grants, subsidies etc.
What’s happening is this”free” gov’t money is drying up and these industries are closing and going bankrupt.
Apparently homes with Solar Panels are avoided by potential home purchasers. Many insurers want nothing to do with them. They are not recyclable. When damaged they leach toxic chemicals into the ground.
I wouldn’t want Solar Panels or EV’s etc. if they were free.
Sorry if I am bumming you out Airfix. The new place needs { and is getting } endless back straining , manual work. The shovel and wheelbarrow type. Days and weeks on end . It gives me way too much time to ponder life while my body is on autopilot getting the ground work done. Sunny today, but I have been at this for three months now and lots of out in the rain and mud. A pile of blackberrys bigger than my pick up dug up by the roots , plus trying to level out a building site by hand . Where is an excavator when you need one ? Something about 2 or 3 days at $300.00 an hour or so just doesn’t jive with an older guy on a pension. So shovel , wheelbarrow etc it is.
#62 fomosapien on 04.16.24 at 2:01 pm
@#6 AM in MN on 04.16.24 at 9:10 am
–
geez you are a dark soul.
——————————————————-
Where’s the darkness?
Unlike many on this blog I take mention that life is good, in many respects, although I’m not as young as I once was.
I have a great family, including the extended ones, on both sides, and everyone is doing well, but that doesn’t make me oblivious to some of the unhappiness around me that I observe.
As much as I think we all need to do our part to help the less fortunate, it is hard for me to watch young people go down a path that very often leads to misery and unhappiness.
Not that it’s my place to do anything about it, although we do with our own to make sure they don’t follow.
I think you might find darkness somewhere in the mirror…..
Thieving libs at it again.
Tax lawyers going to love this. Cap gains are easily ‘structured’
Was happy to pay on 50%. Anything more , we’ll that’s gonna be tougher to get .
Actually, we are not living too long. We are living according to the rules our creator designated (IMO), 125 years max.
A lot of homes in London, Ontario will be up for sale very soon to beat the tax change this June 25th. A short term buying opportunity in the month of June where the seller will take anything to beat the deadline.
They blew it all on toys, watched soa and all went out and bought Harleys, 4th house, 3rd wife, boats and ATVs.
Let them eat cat food.
#100 Dragonfly58 on 04.16.24 at 5:54 pm
Good on you, hard work is good for the mind.
Sounds like you deserve a break though, take Sunday off and go to Ft Langley, St George’s day British car show.
Doctors. If you think the exodus is bad now, Just wait a few months.
Nobody gets it in the neck with taxes worse than Doctors. Not only do I not blame them for leaving Canada I actually encourage them. Because my conscience demands that I tell them the truth.
It appears Canada is doomed. Oh well it was nice while it lasted.
And yet in spite of your alarming subject today, Garth, there are still MANY readers of your blog who continue to support the radical Socialist NDP/Liberal Coalition.
Why?
Pierre Poilievre can’t be voted in soon enough and even if he and the Conservatives win a majority, Trudeau will have caused SO MUCH DAMAGE to Canada that it is unlikely that Pierre will even be able to fix it.
Garth, I wish you would use your platform to ORDER everyone to vote Conservative when the next election comes around.
But alas you will probably ghost me once again.
I am sorry but it is not old people or even people that saved nothing or little, it is the retards called Liberals, left brain dead socialists that only understand to take and give nothing, do not contribute nothing to society, a country whatever you want to say. I think it is better Canada split up and get their own regional currencies instead of this failed Canada country.
@#93 fishman
“The theme of todays budget is “generational fairness”. Who better to decide whats fair than our more than generous Lib/Dip government.”
+++
No real surprises.
More spending, more taxes.
A desperate Liberal budget for a LibDP minority govt plummeting in the polls.
Oh well, whats another $50 billion deeper in debt for the Nation…
After they blew $250 Billion on Covid ….$50 billion seems like a deal to them.
$60 billion per year for taxpayers in National debt interest payments?
$70 billion per year?
No one really knows.
Until these feckless financial fools are gone, gone gone and adults can audit the insanity.
What i do not realize is in fact how you are no longer actually much more wellfavored than you might be right now Youre very intelligent You recognize thus considerably in relation to this topic made me in my view believe it from numerous numerous angles Its like men and women are not fascinated until it is one thing to do with Lady gaga Your own stuffs excellent All the time handle it up
On a 1m gain
50% taxed is 250k
66.7 taxed is 333k
At 50% rate
Chrystia just grabbed 83k extra. Bastages.
#100 Dragonfly58 on 04.16.24 at 5:54 pm
endless back straining , manual work.
_____________________________
You as buff as Garth yet?
Ban housing as an investment!
The top 20% of wage earners pay 66% of all taxes but only earn 49% of all income. The Bottom 50% of wage earners pay 9% of all taxes yet earn 20% of all income.
We are running out of taxpayers….
I do not know what you are talking about Garth, I maximize my TFSAs, RRSPs each year in 5 year GICs now some 6 to 10 years too and have averaged 4.7% over the last 35 years. I rent a modest place and have every month $8,000 ahead put in my RRSPs, TFSAs, cash investments and my tax free interest portion is now approaching 13%. In the next decade it will be 20%.
You see most people think lower to low interest rates helped to the economy and people’s finances but really they are deeper in debt, have much less or no savings, assets, investments and think the government will support them. They do not realize the government is the biggest loser as their money becomes more worthless too as they make too much. The more Liberal the government is the more they can not do anything good for Canada.
Now at 56, I have $1.5 million in RRSP, TFSAs, cash investments and no debt and my investment income is 70% of my working income. I do not need to get high returns 8%, 9%+. You know most people do not understand that they think the government has some special magic or something. When I am gone they can live with all their misery and problems as they will be paying for it more than me.
Reality is stark, you know what tax we need? A government checks in balances tax. The more they pay and give benefits to workers, pensions, unions etc. the higher the taxes, percentage they pay. When the government collects all that tax then they have to give it to the Bank of Canada and it will cancel that currency. One step solution.
I hope all these parasites in Ottawa and elsewhere will be paying the ultimate tax not being here anymore.
Garth Turner: “If rates don’t fall, the economy stutters or confidence fades, Canada could easily have a housing crisis.”
Precisely.
And that’s why we must “CUT TEH RATES!”
It’s not complicated.
Everyone feels in their gut that there’s a direct line between cutting rates and mega boom times in propadee.
Cutting rats will fix everything in the economy.
So the Libs are upping the CAP Gains tax rate.
They heard rumors about innovation and are determined to leave no stone unturned in deterring it.
Thanks for the reminder Airfix. Somehow I often forget about that one. And I almost always miss the ABFM in Vancouver due to a conflict with a Washington State meet I have been going to for years with a bunch of long time car buddies. Ft Langley is small, but usually I see something I am interested in. You never know , perhaps even a TVR.
Best of all possible budgets.
By the Least of the evils.
Confirmation:
Jagmeet Singh doesn’t like it.
Pierre Poilievre doesn’t like it.
#58 Another Deckchair on 04.16.24 at 1:28 pm
Xxx
Lucky you. I had to make my own ; ). https://solarmuseum.org/cells/bell-solar-energy-experiment/
Good times.
DELETED
76, edging toward 77, working at least 2 jobs. Life on the westcoast. I’m thankful.
@#107 Minski
“Doctors. If you think the exodus is bad now, Just wait a few months.”
++++
Yep.
“Fairness for every generation”
Doesnt include Health Care……
That was the straw that broke the camels back.
I’ve got a degree in software and electrical engineering.
The Canadian government has now pledged to take the majority of my earnings and investment income.
Were all done. Down south we go.
No special tax for overpaid Plummers in the budget?
CMHC
“Housing starts declined 7% in March from Feb.”
https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/housing-starts-down-seven-per-cent-in-march-from-february-cmhc-1.6848846#:~:text=Canada%20Mortgage%20and%20Housing%20Corp,compared%20with%20260%2C047%20in%20February.
@#128 Ponzies Plummer Praise
You plumber isnt overpaid when he shows up during the Christmas holidays to replace the burst Hot water tank…..While all your relatives wait to shower, laundry and wash dishes……
And then demands you pay with Visa for a $2000 bill.
Hot water on demand is worth twice that….
Unless you enjoy cold showers Ponzie?
Budget days are usually uneventful for me.
As I always position myself defensively and don’t cowboy around much.
Steady as she goes.
And if I have to pay a few % more in taxes. No sweat.
The US House of Representatives agreed to reauthorize a controversial spying law known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act last Friday without any meaningful reforms, dashing hopes that Congress might finally put a stop to intelligence agencies’ warrantless surveillance of Americans’ emails, text messages and phone calls.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/16/house-fisa-government-surveillance-senate
Interesting watching the body language of the MP’s around the Finance Minister when she was delivering the Budget in Parliament.
Her Liberal colleagues ( namely Anita Annand and Steven Guilbeault) looked like they would rather have had their wisdom teeth removed by a dull, rusty spoon…….than be sitting beside Freeland.
I expect more of the experienced Lib MP’s to leave before the next election.
They know what is coming.
#110 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.24 at 7:23 pm
Oh well, whats another $50 billion deeper in debt for the Nation…
————-
You sound like my brain… I can barely give a rip anymore. My hopes for the eventual repair of Canada turned to ash during Covid. He’s gonna keep doing the same thing till he gets booted.
These days I’m more concerned with planning how to minimize the social, economic, and fiscal repercussions of Trudeau’s tenure on my future self. They will last for a long time, and can no longer be avoided.
On the $250,000 threshold on capital gains from the budget announcement, I suspect those who have been holding off increasing their ACB gradually on said capital gains over the years (especially those with large amounts of investment real estate) are now kicking themselves hard.
With stocks, bonds, ETFs, you can easily manage by a few dollars how much capital gains you want to declare annually. Sell an investment property, you can’t chunk out the capital gains on that. Ouch! That won’t be just affecting 0.13% of the Canadian population. I wonder if between now and June will be a good time to pick up somebody’s secondary property/cottage at a discount?
I can see the government taking a windfall amount in tax revenue for tax year 2024. After 2024, might be a different story.
B.C. home sales slide almost 10 per cent in March despite mortgage rate drop.
#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.24 at 10:09 pm
Interesting watching the body language of the MP’s around the Finance Minister when she was delivering the Budget in Parliament.
Her Liberal colleagues ( namely Anita Annand and Steven Guilbeault) looked like they would rather have had their wisdom teeth removed by a dull, rusty spoon…….than be sitting beside Freeland.
I expect more of the experienced Lib MP’s to leave before the next election.
They know what is coming.
===================
COMMENT:
I agree…
It was only a while back that T2’s “star” Ministers would be front and center re: numerous news conferences etc.
Now??? AWOL !!!
I predict that T2 will resign…and Freeland will be stoopid enough to take over and do a Kim Campbell re: shortest time as PM..
Re #112 – Using your $1 mil capital gains scenario ,the way I read it is that inclusion rate will be 50% on the first $250k and 66.67 % on the remaining $250,000.01 to $1 million.
Senator Plett on the Liberals.
Ensure you’ve had your dinner BEFORE listening to this real eye-opener.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lrY9UJam7 … V0dA%3D%3D
@#101 AM in MN on 04.16.24 at 5:54 pm
#62 fomosapien on 04.16.24 at 2:01 pm
@#6 AM in MN on 04.16.24 at 9:10 am
–
geez you are a dark soul.
——————————————————-
Where’s the darkness?
Unlike many on this blog I take mention that life is good, in many respects, although I’m not as young as I once was.
I have a great family, including the extended ones, on both sides, and everyone is doing well, but that doesn’t make me oblivious to some of the unhappiness around me that I observe.
As much as I think we all need to do our part to help the less fortunate, it is hard for me to watch young people go down a path that very often leads to misery and unhappiness.
Not that it’s my place to do anything about it, although we do with our own to make sure they don’t follow.
I think you might find darkness somewhere in the mirror…..
–
nah, you’re definitely a dark soul.
#108 Bonobo on 04.16.24 at 7:14 pm
And yet in spite of your alarming subject today, Garth, there are still MANY readers of your blog who continue to support the radical Socialist NDP/Liberal Coalition.
Why?
Pierre Poilievre can’t be voted in soon enough and even if he and the Conservatives win a majority, Trudeau will have caused SO MUCH DAMAGE to Canada that it is unlikely that Pierre will even be able to fix it.
===================================
COMMENT:
That’s the point..
When the public mood changes…politicians will become like werewolves and bare their fangs and claws to show their true colors and agendas.
BC’s Dave Barrett NDP Gov’t in 1970’s beat the Socreds who were in for 20 years….it was not so much pro NDP but tired of WAC Bennett and crew.
Howevwer..its was reported the NDP knew they would only be in for ONE TERM…..(ie from 1972 to 1975)so they whipped out their agenda book and passed 2 pieces of legislation every 3 days ..with such disasters as ALR and ICBC.
Again..low in POLLS etc. = like a wounded animal.
Jagmeet could pull the trigger any time and T2 knows it.
That video link went nowhere (odd…even with cut n paste)
Here it is:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrY9UJam7k0
I saw a statistic recently that to build the number of homes the Liberals are talking about in the next 6 years, we’d need one new home every two minutes. I checked it and the math checks out. How can anyone even propose this and keep a straight face? We simply don’t have the capacity.
……….
The math might work that way if they were all single family homes….but that is certainly not the idea. There will be mostly apartments, co-op housing and condo’s built but it is most unlikely they will come anywhere near the target.
135 Travelling
“With stocks, bonds, ETFs, you can easily manage by a few dollars how much capital gains you want to declare annually. Sell an investment property, you can’t chunk out the capital gains on that. Ouch!”
—————————————————
I just love explaining exactly that to people who only have RE. And then also how I dont have to clean and paint my investments for showing, and wait ???? to sell and get the money, and go to the lawyers office…….
Alois 136
Forget about Freeland running as PM. She’s a foil for Trudeau and Director of WEF. Count on Marc Carney flying from New York and being massively advertised as your saviour.
On the millions of houses being built, that’s sucker bait. All our industry can manage is 165000 per year based on the head count of trades in site. How does a framing crew increase productivity by multiples of 20 ?
Sure, they import, but new imports have be trained. That takes years overall. Pierre Trudeau literally denuded Punjab of men in their 20’s in the 70’s. India complained that they didn’t have enough men to bring the harvest in. Where’s the labour force coming from?
My prediction for housing starts in 2030…..170,000…more or less the same as now. Unless of course Marc Carney denudes the Global South.
135- We sold our purpose built rentals and our industrial portfolio during the last two years. The 50% GC was a gift I knew would be taken away.
Is there life before death? Not really, it only looks like there is.
@123 Phylis
“Lucky you. I had to make my own ; ). https://solarmuseum.org/cells/bell-solar-energy-experiment/
Good times.”
Wow! That is incredible! Thank you for sharing that link – opened my eyes a bit more… ;-)
And, thanks for a great pic of Doodles, Gus.
#136 As predicted on 04.16.24 at 10:46 pm
B.C. home sales slide almost 10 per cent in March despite mortgage rate drop.
_____
What mortgage rate drop?
Garth, can you talk about if the new capital gains inclusion rate for small business still makes sense for us to retain earnings instead of just paying ourselves?
I guess it’s all true then.
Things just keep getting worser and worser.
So good to be old.
Timing is everything.
I work hard for my money. If the government arbitrarily decides my payments go way up, there needs to be some quid pro quo…
…say first in line at emerg, VIP service at the border, a touch of deference from Service Canada, parks reservation preference, a cut of ArriveCan $…
A tax tip:
Do your taxes early… say mid-March, and submit. The early submittal allows all the CRA people sitting around waiting for end of April to quickly assess. Don’t pay yet.
Check back in mid-April- the assessment will be done and usually fairly close to your ‘best guess’ number. Pay that. Audit defense!
Alberta finance minister responds to federal budget – April 16, 2024
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9laQSGTHGA
Denethor:
“Abandon your posts! Flee, flee for your lives!”
#142 Barb on 04.16.24 at 11:27 pm
“That video link went nowhere (odd…even with cut n paste)”
Qualitatively and quantitatively, the most corrupt admin in all of Canadian history. No other is even remotely close. RCMP asleep at the wheel.
And tragically, the cabinet is chock full of ideological zealots who have no inhibition to cause our ruin in every manner imaginable.
BTW, why are we paying these vast taxes for ever dwindling services?
I see massive brain drain and exodus of the best and brightest from Canada to greener pastures. No way there is a happy ending here.
In the SA timeline over the last 25 years as a family, always living on the ocean, we’ve built 4 boats, bought 8, gave 3 away, sold 6 and currently own 3.
Is that normal? It feels normal. We’re very pleased with the current fleet. Probably best to just write them into the estate plan now.
#133 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.16.24 at 10:09 pm
Crowdie:
This is more serious than I thought.
The phenomenon you are experiencing is called motivated perception
Well, looks like I’ll be paying about an extra $150k in Cap Gains tax due to a sale later this year and because of this budget.
I know the lefty’s will shame me for complaining, arguing I can do just a little more for the country.
It just isn’t worth working hard and taking risk in Canada anymore.
It might be different if I could get a family doctor, the Gov was actually fixing some problems or things weren’t getting worse, but they are.
Plan accordingly.
@#157 Quinty’s Quest
“The phenomenon you are experiencing is called motivated perception”
+++
Tired of regaling us with economic theory….so now you’ve dusted off the Psychology 101 reference manuals to delight us with your Freudian analysis of all things Crowdie?
Perhaps I could be the subject of your Doctoral Thesis.
“”Flatula intelligensia and the perils of elevators”
Dr Quint has a imperious ring to it.
A shout out to some new budget items:
1. Small Biz CG Exemption to $1.25M
2. New Entrepreneur cap gain tax benefit on business sale by founders of 33% inclusion rather than 50% for up to $2M.
#2 is consequential and offsets a lot of the other increased taxation… if you’re in that entrepreneurial arena…
This means, combining the two, sale of a biz would incur tax on $660k of the first $3.25M ($1.25M exempt, 30% of $2M). In a 58% tax bracket, this equals a tax bill of $382,800 and a total untaxed windfall of $2.87M.
Scrumptious! If, you know, you have a highly-profitable business someone will buy :-)
@152 Seriously dumb and not funny if that is what you were going for!
Almost as dumb as CEF suggesting his taxes should not go to rainbow crosswalks.
Dude, correct me if I am wrong, but you and your companies took CERB money (both loans and payroll assistance).
And as an engineering services firm I imagine some of your work involves government contracts (municipal, provincial, federal)? Where do you think that money comes from?
It seems you are already front of line with your hand out?
Lastly, we all work hard for our money, stop being a snowflake. Perhaps Garth can kick you a few dollars as posting here seems to be your side hustle.
Reading what Soul Man has to say reminds me of discussions my husband and I have about leaving Canada. But where to go? If retired, like us, you worry about learning a new language proficiently enough to deal with bureaucracy elsewhere, leaving friends and family, suitable climate, health care, cultural differences and blending in etc. all the things that go into the mix. But with the current financial trajectory in Canada, I worry about the devaluation of our currency moving forward and how much we will need to survive comfortably into the future in Canada. If you are on your own, with no family support in another country, it seems a difficult prospect when you are at an advanced age (wrinklie).
I hope when the conservatives get in they cut everything 33.33% immediately and reduce Canadians tax burden over 5 years by 33.33%.
Can we get the $$$ numbers?
11 Bankersorta on 04.16.24 at 9:24 am
Nice graphic, but what are the $$$ that define each category, or are these just perceptions. Not everybody needs a $2 million RSP to retire comfortably or feel secure.
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