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1 in 5 Americans think violence may solve U.S. divisions, poll finds

One in 5 U.S. adults believe Americans may have to resort to violence to get their own country back on track, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, an attitude that experts say puts the nation in “an incredibly dangerous place” in the months before the 2024 presidential election.

Most Americans, no matter their political affiliation, do not believe that violence is a solution to domestic political divisions, according to this latest poll. But Republicans were more likely than Democrats or independents — and slightly more likely than the population overall – to say force may be needed to course-correct.

During recent reelection campaign rallies, presumptive Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump has questioned the humanity of immigrants, referred to a much debated “blood bath for the country” if he does not get reelected and describes people who have been convicted for Jan. 6 criminal offenses as “hostages.”

READ MORE: Why Trump’s alarmist message on immigration may be resonating beyond his base

His speeches often attempt “to convince people the country is going downhill, that things are awful and only he can fix them,” said Barbara McQuade, a law professor at the University of Michigan and author of “Attack from Within: How Disinformation is Sabotaging America.”

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Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

These latest poll results suggest “to some extent, these strategies are working” and highlight that “we need strong voices pushing back,” said McQuade, who served as U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan.

“It’s an incredibly dangerous place to be,” she said.

McQuade added that authoritarians across history have deployed this tactic, conjuring fear to manipulate people’s emotions.

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Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

“Violence isn’t the way to get our country back on track,” said David Avella, chairman of GOPAC, a Republican state and local political training organization. He noted that the United States is “still a country where Democrats and Republicans and independents still hang out with one another” and where most people (68 percent, according to this poll) feel the American Dream remains attainable.

“We’re still a country that believes in law and order, and everybody still has to play by the rules,” Avella said.

While most Americans seem to agree with that, some took a softer stance. This poll found that about 25 percent of U.S. adults thought a president should be immune from crimes committed while in office. Republicans, at 34 percent, were nearly twice as likely as Democrats (18 percent) or independents (19 percent) to feel this way.

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Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

In addition, 41 percent of Americans overall said the nation has gotten so far off track that it needs a leader willing to break rules. Looking across partisan lines, 56 percent of Republicans, 28 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of independents agree.

“Regardless of your politics, the idea of breaking rules and engaging in violence is just antithetical to the idea of America,” McQuade said. Disinformation, both on the campaign trail and on social media, has gone far to distort people’s sense of reality, she added.

An emerging disregard for the rule of law is already undermining “the story of what America is supposed to be,” said Democratic strategist Spencer Critchley, adding that it has also been observed “across western democracy” .

“We are risking losing our democracy, and we are, in many cases, seeing fascism right before our eyes,” he said

To counteract the potential for further harm, McQuade stressed the need to call out disinformation and authoritarian tactics, improve media literacy and civics education, as well as bolster reforms on social media.

To gauge views among U.S. adults on several polarizing issues, the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist asked questions about some attitudes to gain a sense of how widespread they might be at this point in time. Findings in this poll included:

  • Roughly 8 in 10 Americans say they have friends with different political beliefs than theirs. Among independents, that rises to about 9 in 10.
  • Three-quarters of Americans said religion should not influence government policy. Another 24 percent said religion should play a role, including almost half of all Republican men.
  • 51 percent of Americans overall said immigrants who enter the U.S. illegally should be deported (an opinion shared by 84 percent of Republicans, 55 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats).
  • Two-thirds of Americans say the country “is too politically correct.” Trump voters were about twice as likely as Biden voters to agree (79 percent vs. 37 percent).
  • 47 percent of Americans overall say discrimination against white people is as much of a problem as it is against Black people and people in other minority groups. Looking across party lines, 77 percent of Republicans, 48 percent of independents and 22 percent of Democrats agree.
  • President Joe Biden won the 2020 election. In this poll, 71 percent of Americans overall said they believe that to be true. That drops to 38 percent among Republicans.

The Biden vs. Trump rematch is set. Where will the undecideds go?

Much can change between now and November, but 6 in 10 Americans say they already know for whom they want to vote in the 2024 election, and that nothing will change their minds.

That means 4 in 10 Americans could still be persuaded if presidential candidates offer them positions they agree with on a small handful of issues, Avella said.

“Both candidates have potential for some growth or could lose voters,” he said. “That’s why campaigns matter.”

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Chart by Jenna Cohen/PBS NewsHour

If the presidential election were held today, 50 percent of U.S. registered voters said they would vote for Biden. This marks his highest support among potential voters in the 2024 race, according to Marist polls going back to August 2023.

His support was strongest among people who live in wealthier households, college graduates, people of color, women, Gen X and baby boomers, people without children living at home and residents of big cities and suburban areas.

Trump found support seemingly among everyone else, particularly independents, people who did not graduate from college, residents of small towns and rural areas, men and white evangelical Christians. Overall, 48 percent of registered voters said they would vote for Trump.

“We are consistently seeing Biden not connecting as strongly with independents, young, or non-white voters compared to 2020,” said Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Statistically, in this poll along with Trump’s better showing among independents, it’s a toss-up among young voters.”

And while Biden and Trump have each clinched enough delegates to earn their parties’ nominations, a majority of Americans still hold unfavorable views of both candidates, according to this latest poll.

Biden’s approval ratings have remained statistically frozen for years, another sign of the polarization within U.S. politics. In this latest poll, 4 in 10 Americans said they approve of what the president is doing in office. At the same time, 5 in 10 said they disapproved. Similarly, 5 in 10 Americans said they hold an unfavorable view of Biden, another attitude that has remained unshakeable for two years, according to Marist’s polling data.

The PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey on March 25 through March 28 that polled 1,305 U.S. adults with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points and 1,199 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.