What many climatologists and meteorologists feared is coming true: it is quite possibly going to be a very active tropical hurricane season in the North Atlantic Ocean. A fairly inactive past few years could be taking a turn for the worst as we potentially see one of the most active tropical seasons in recorded history within the Atlantic basin.
Every year around early springtime, researchers/professors and scientists at Colorado State University release the annual Hurricane Season Outlook. Shown below is a summary graphic of the overall outlook issued by CSU.
This years outlook is quite an alarming one as almost double the amount of named storms is very well possible.Colorado State University
There will be updates made to this outlook so this is not the final prediction for tropical activity for the summer and fall. Nevertheless, the first one always sets the tone for what is most likely to occur over the next six months or so. Typically, the Atlantic basin experiences around 14-15 named storms per year. This year they are projecting 23 or more. With respect to hurricanes, about half of all named storms get classified as such with 3-4 of those labeled as a major hurricane, which is Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Our outlook has a strong probability of 11 hurricanes, with at least 5 of those reaching the 111 mph mark to officially classify it into major hurricane status.
About this time last year, the forecast outlook was announced with a very different message. 2023′s prediction was a much more tame one, with the overall dynamic hinting at more of an average year in the tropical Atlantic. Thirteen named storms with 6 hurricanes as well as two major Category 3s were predicted. As seen below, that mostly verified; the only real difference being the amount of named storms. According to the map, there were 19 named storms with 6 hurricanes, including three that reached major Category 3.
A quick look back at last year's hurricane season shows it wasn't as active as expected.The Weather Channel
According to meteorologists, the largest reason for a bold forecast this year is a much anticipated switch in climatic conditions. As a majority of society is already aware of, we’ve been in an El Niño period for the last few years. This has had a tremendous impact on the atmosphere and ocean dynamics, especially in the Atlantic. Colorado State’s forecast heavily incorporates the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) parameter into their final statistical analysis.
El Niño conditions typically mean a warmer, but drier pattern. Along with that, there is generally stronger vertical wind shear and less instability for developing thunderstorms to work with. La Niña is the exact opposite of this as a warmer/wetter ocean surfaces pair with much less vertical wind shear and increased instability. As of early April, we are currently transitioning from El Niño to La Niña.
For hurricanes to form, the right conditions must be present. These conditions include vertical wind shear, moisture availability, ocean surface temperatures, and atmospheric instability. The best case scenario for optimal hurricane formation is less vertical wind shear, more moisture present, warmer ocean temperatures, and higher instability. As a result of these anticipated oceanic settings, an active tropical season is possible.
The last time we found ourselves flipping from El Niño to La Niña in the middle of hurricane season was 2010. Interestingly enough, they had an ultra-active tropical season that year. Nineteen named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes occurred that year. What 2010 didn’t see was record warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). As of April 2nd, 2024, SST anomalies are well above average. Simply put, the ocean is much warmer than normal right now and is going to get warmer in the near future.
Are we really going to see a record hurricane season? It may be too early to tell. Atlantic Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, so there’s still time for things to play out. History has shown that the CSU outlooks have generally panned out. They haven’t been perfect and some years have been complete busts for that matter, but most of the time they get very close.
So, this ominous forecast doesn’t necessarily guarantee a high-impact season. It simply means the odds are higher. Keep that information in mind as we head into summertime.