Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite series of bets for the Eastern and Western Conference playoffs, including Cavs versus Magic and Clippers against the Mavs.
ML Parlay (+124)
76ers ML (-218) vs Heat
Cavaliers ML (-185) vs Magic
The Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are arguably the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks’ worst nightmares in a first-round matchup, so this game will be exciting, to say the least.
Joel Embiid is back and the 76ers have won five straight with him all by at least 4 points and eight consecutive games overall, including a win over Miami on April 4 (109-105).
The Heat have the second-best defensive rating post-All-Star break, but over the last eight games, the 76ers own the No. 1 defense and 7th-best offense.
Philly is hot at the right time and with Embiid only playing once this season against the New York Knicks, that matchup for the 76ers would be an opportune one.
The Cavaliers tanked the fourth quarter of the regular season finale to get a worse seed in order to play the Orlando Magic, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2019-20.
I break down the Cavs matchup more in the next portion of bets, but Cleveland has the size down low, star power at the guard position, and the hunger for a first-round win after a first-round exit last season and not making the second-round since LeBron James played for them in 2017-18.
Give me the 76ers and Cavs ML Parlay at +124 odds down to +110.
Pick: 76ers and Cavs ML Parlay (1u)
Magic (+156) vs Cavaliers (-186): O/U 5.5 Games
The Cleveland Cavaliers lost in the first round of the playoffs last season and this is the best matchup possible to escape the first round this year.
Cleveland could have played Miami or Philadelphia as the No. 2 seed or Indiana as the No. 3 seed, but instead get an Orlando Magic team making the postseason for the first time since 2019-20.
Orlando and Cleveland split the season series 2-2 with the smallest margin of victory being seven points. The Cavaliers have the size to match up with the Magic down low, the better shooting, star power at guard, in addition to the playoff experience.
Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony combine for 17.6 points per game and a guy like Gary Harris (37.1%) is one of the best three-point shooters that Orlando has to offer. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland could feast and if Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley limit Orlando’s bigs in the paint, then Cleveland should advance to the second round for the first time since 2017-18 (LeBron James era).
Orlando cashed us three units on futures when it won the Southeast Division, but now is the time to fade the Magic. Give me Cleveland to win the series at -184 odds on FanDuel out to -200.
On multiple sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM, you can play Cleveland to win Game 1 and the series at -110 to -115 odds, which I think is a play too.
Picks: Cavaliers to win Series (Risk 2u), Cavaliers to win Game 1 and the Series (1u)
Clippers (-105) vs Mavericks (-115): O/U 5.5 Games
The Dallas Mavericks went 18-9 since the All-Star break with the 7th-ranked offense and 13th defense. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Clippers are 15-14 with the 14th-ranked offense and 22nd-ranked defense in that same span.
The midseason acquisitions from Dallas boosted this team’s success and a healthy Kyrie Irving alongside Luka Doncic is deadly. The Clippers duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George also received a boost with James Harden and Russell Westbrook’s arrival, which is enough to make this a competitive series.
Los Angeles went 2-1 versus Dallas this season with the previous meeting being Dec. 20. The Clippers will face a Mavs team they aren’t 100 percent familiar with and while I lean Dallas to win the series, I think the best bet is the Over 5.5 games.
Four of the Mavericks’ last five series have gone Over 5.5 games and six of the past seven for the Clippers. Los Angeles lost 4-1 to Suns last season in the first round, while Dallas missed the postseason.
This matchup sets up a potential seven-game series with lots of star power. I played Dallas and L.A. Over 5.5 Games Played at -195 odds on DraftKings. You can grab the series at six games around +200 or seven games around +230, which both hold value.
Pick: Over 5.5 Games (Risk 2u)
Pelicans vs Lakers: O/U 224.5
The route to a Western Conference Title runs through either Oklahoma City (No. 1 seed) or Denver (No. 2 seed) for New Orleans or Los Angeles as the No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
Los Angeles has beaten the Pelicans three out of four times this season, including the previous, but with Father Time chasing after LeBron James, I expect he and the Lakers to know the better matchup for a Finals appearance runs through the younger and lesser experienced Thunder rather than defending champion Nuggets.
Anthony Davis left the regular season finale with a minor back injury late in the game and while he is playing against New Orleans, the last thing Los Angeles wants is to push AD too far in a career-high season for games played (76).
For the Pelicans, not that they are happy to be here, but if they lose this game, they are likely an underdog in the next matchup and worth fading versus the Kings or Warriors, as to where the Lakers would be favorites against either Sacramento or Golden State.
I grabbed the Pelicans on the ML at -116 odds on FanDuel and would go to -125. While I think the Lakers are the better team, I also believe L.A. will be strategical and opt for the easier route to a championship — through the Kings or Warriors, then the Thunder. City.
Pick: Pelicans ML (1u)
Season Record: 28-18 (60.8%) +12.16u
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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