Plenty at stake

All LS elections are consequential. But 2024’s may be more consequential than most

The model code of conduct that kicked in on Saturday will continue till June. The actual polling will start on April 19 and run over six weeks. The electorate is now around 969 million. But even accounting for that number, this is a long-drawn exercise for 21st century India, which is retooling itself as a digital economy. Given that election duty will be first priority, even everyday governance will be affected for an unusually long time. The election cycle needs to be shrunk to minimise inconvenience for people.

Big third? | Every LS election is unique. And consequential. A special feature of the coming election is that Modi is aiming to become PM for the third straight term. If he does achieve it, he will equal Nehru’s record of three successive victories. Just a decade ago, India was still in its coalition era and even a simple majority for a political party seemed a tall order. And three consecutive, clear victories were inconceivable.

At a crossroads | At a crossroads Congress, India’s dominant party for the first four decades after Independence, is at its lowest point. It suffered big defeats in 2014 and 2019. Its combined seats in these two LS rounds were not even half of what it got in 2009, when it anchored a coalition.

Another drubbing will make it hard for the party to revive. While it has pockets of strength, a central leadership that appears incapable of winning can lead to state units peeling away into regional outfits. If Congress has to be seen as a serious contender at the national level, it needs a big improvement on its last result.

BJP’s missing link | BJP’s dominance of India is dissimilar to that of the erstwhile Congress. In its core region such as the Hindi belt and western India, BJP’s victory margins are huge. But in most of south India and parts of eastern India, it has met with stiff opposition from regional parties. Congress at its peak had a wider geographical footprint. Modi’s frequent trips to TN in the recent past indicate that the party is putting in extra effort to deepen its roots in these regions.

Regional parties, dwindling returns | Regional parties in the period between 1989 and 2014 punched above their weight in Delhi. In 1990s, the combined vote share of regional parties more than doubled from the earlier level of 20%. Majority govts since 2014 have reduced the clout of regional parties. The bigger risk for them in 2024 is if Congress improves its performance, it’s most likely to come at the expense of regional parties.

LS 2024 may see big realignment of social blocs, and that could influence political trajectory over the next decade.