It's fitting that deep into the fantasy playoffs, tonight's five-game NBA slate is defined by a series of matchups with postseason-like vibes. With seeding implications weighing heavy in many of today's games, such as the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat battling to potentially exit the play-in tier of the Eastern conference, stakes are meaningful.
There is a positive correlation to such competitiveness and fantasy implications in that only of today's five games has a spread above 3.5 points. Tighter spreads lead to more predictable rotations, which means more predictive minute patterns for players throughout each roster. When speculating production for fantasy purposes, it's clearly of value to have some predictive empowerment.
The Sacramento Kings are down a few wings in Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk, which vaults Harrison Barnes (28.6% rostered in ESPN men's basketball leagues) and Keon Ellis (3.2%) into more important roles. Their opponent tonight, the New York Knicks, have been leaning heavily on Miles McBride (19.3%). Fantasy managers are finally taking notice, as McBride is the most-added player in ESPN leagues during the past week.
The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors in another game with significant seeding consequences. The continued absence of Aleperen Sengun means more small-ball looks from Ime Udoka. The return of Cam Whitmore has cut into the ascendent nature of Amen Thompson (39.6%), but there is still real value in Thompson's defensive and rebounding potential.
The only double-digit spread of the slate includes the Atlanta Hawks as road dogs visiting the Dallas Mavericks years removed from their fateful draft day deal. The Hawks have a two-way wing who is finally finding consistent success years into his career, as you'll read about below in an actionable edition of the stream team.
Thursday's Stream Team
Miles McBride, PG, New York Knicks (Rostered in 13.2%)
We've been pushing McBride this week as a helpful backcourt addition because, well, he basically never leaves the floor for Tom Thibodeau. With at least 45 minutes in three straight games, McBride's exposure leads to fun fantasy lines via such rich exposure. The potential for rewarding shooting, scoring, and defensive results are undeniably present in a matchup with a depleted Kings backcourt.
Amen Thompson, SG, Houston Rockets (39.6%)
A power forward's skill set merges with the body and agility of a guard, as Thompson's atypical game often leads to unique results. Even with the presence of Whitmore, there is room for Thompson to accrue multiple steals and clean the glass for an undersized Houston roster.
De'Andre Hunter, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks (17.5%)
Fresh from one of his best lines of the year, Hunter is putting together a strong finish after a quiet, injury-influenced start to his season. With the team tasking him with perimeter scoring and important defensive assignments, Hunter has surpassed 30 minutes in six straight and next faces a Dallas team lacking athleticism and size at the wing spots.
Keon Ellis, SG, Sacramento Kings (3.2%):
There isn't often much offensive pop from Ellis, but he's a dynamic defender and impressive rebounder from the backcourt. There are so many minutes available for this depleted Kings backcourt and a larger role can lead to larger numbers.
Projections and injury reports
Fantasy projections powered by ESPN Analytics. * Projections assume all players who are listed as GTD will play. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Players available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues are listed in italics.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
7:30 p.m. Kaseya Center, Miami
BPI Projection: Heat in the 5th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD - Knee); Mo Bamba, (GTD - Illness); Tobias Harris, (GTD - Knee); Tyrese Maxey, (GTD - Hip); Robert Covington, (OUT - Knee); De'Anthony Melton, (OUT - Back)
Heat: Tyler Herro, (OUT - Foot); Josh Richardson, (OUT - Shoulder)
76ers projections:
Joel Embiid, C: 48.8 FPTS (28.6 pts, 10.0 reb, 5.1 ast, 1.3 blk)
Tyrese Maxey, PG/SG: 43.2 FPTS (24.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 5.4 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Tobias Harris, SF/PF: 31.3 FPTS (15.8 pts, 6.2 reb, 2.5 ast)
Kelly Oubre Jr., SF/PF: 28.0 FPTS (15.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.0 ast)
Kyle Lowry, PG: 22.0 FPTS (8.4 pts, 2.9 reb, 3.7 ast)
Buddy Hield, SG/SF: 16.5 FPTS (7.1 pts, 2.1 reb, 2.0 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Cameron Payne, PG: 16.4 FPTS (8.0 pts, 2.1 reb, 2.2 ast)
Heat projections:
Bam Adebayo, C: 37.7 FPTS (18.6 pts, 10.2 reb, 3.9 ast)
Jimmy Butler, SF/PF: 37.4 FPTS (20.4 pts, 4.9 reb, 4.7 ast)
Terry Rozier, PG/SG: 35.2 FPTS (18.7 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.4 ast, 2.3 3PM)
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF: 24.3 FPTS (11.9 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF: 18.2 FPTS (9.1 pts, 2.7 reb, 2.2 ast)
Nikola Jovic, SF: 16.6 FPTS (7.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.9 ast)
Caleb Martin, SG/SF: 16.4 FPTS (8.1 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.7 ast)
Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
BPI Projection: Knicks in the 3rd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Kings: Malik Monk, (OUT - Knee); Kevin Huerter, (OUT - Shoulder)
Knicks: Duane Washington Jr., (GTD - Knee); Josh Hart, (GTD - Wrist); Mitchell Robinson, (GTD - Ankle); OG Anunoby, (OUT - Elbow); Julius Randle, (OUT - Shoulder)
Kings projections:
De'Aaron Fox, PG: 50.8 FPTS (27.6 pts, 4.6 reb, 6.0 ast, 2.9 3PM)
Domantas Sabonis, PF/C: 43.0 FPTS (19.9 pts, 10.7 reb, 6.8 ast)
Keegan Murray, SF/PF: 28.4 FPTS (14.5 pts, 5.4 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Harrison Barnes, SF/PF: 21.2 FPTS (11.7 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.3 ast, 1.8 3PM)
Keon Ellis, SG: 19.6 FPTS (9.2 pts, 3.7 reb, 1.4 ast)
Trey Lyles, PF: 14.4 FPTS (6.9 pts, 3.9 reb, 1.0 ast)
Davion Mitchell, PG: 11.2 FPTS (5.7 pts, 1.5 reb, 1.3 ast)
Knicks projections:
Jalen Brunson, PG/SG: 40.5 FPTS (24.6 pts, 3.2 reb, 5.1 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Donte DiVincenzo, SG: 33.2 FPTS (17.0 pts, 4.5 reb, 2.9 ast, 3.4 3PM)
Josh Hart, SG/SF: 32.0 FPTS (11.0 pts, 8.3 reb, 4.8 ast)
Miles McBride, PG: 27.0 FPTS (14.5 pts, 3.0 reb, 2.3 ast, 2.4 3PM)
Isaiah Hartenstein, PF/C: 22.2 FPTS (9.2 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.0 ast)
Precious Achiuwa, PF/C: 15.6 FPTS (7.0 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.2 ast)
Mitchell Robinson, C: 12.7 FPTS (4.5 pts, 6.1 reb, 0.7 ast)
Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks
7:30 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
BPI Projection: Mavericks in the highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Hawks: Mouhamed Gueye, (GTD - Elbow); Trae Young, (OUT - Finger); AJ Griffin, (OUT - Ankle); Onyeka Okongwu, (OUT - Toe); Saddiq Bey, (OUT - Knee)
Mavericks: Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal); Josh Green, (OUT - Ankle); Dereck Lively II, (OUT - Knee)
Hawks projections:
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG: 46.7 FPTS (22.6 pts, 5.4 reb, 6.9 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG/SF: 34.1 FPTS (17.9 pts, 4.5 reb, 3.3 ast, 3.2 3PM)
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF: 32.9 FPTS (15.5 pts, 7.8 reb, 3.5 ast)
De'Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 25.3 FPTS (15.5 pts, 4.1 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Clint Capela, C: 24.7 FPTS (11.2 pts, 9.6 reb, 1.2 ast)
Bruno Fernando, C: 16.8 FPTS (8.1 pts, 6.0 reb, 1.0 ast)
Kobe Bufkin, PG: 13.6 FPTS (5.5 pts, 2.3 reb, 1.9 ast)
Mavericks projections:
Luka Doncic, PG: 58.6 FPTS (33.5 pts, 8.7 reb, 8.5 ast, 3.9 3PM)
Kyrie Irving, PG/SG: 49.8 FPTS (29.3 pts, 5.0 reb, 5.7 ast, 3.0 3PM)
P.J. Washington, PF: 28.2 FPTS (15.4 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.0 3PM)
Daniel Gafford, PF/C: 27.0 FPTS (13.1 pts, 7.9 reb, 1.6 ast, 2.3 blk)
Tim Hardaway Jr., SG/SF: 24.7 FPTS (13.9 pts, 3.1 reb, 1.7 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Dante Exum, PG: 18.7 FPTS (10.0 pts, 2.8 reb, 2.6 ast)
Derrick Jones Jr., SF: 15.8 FPTS (8.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 1.1 ast)
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. Toyota Center, Houston
BPI Projection: Warriors in the 4th highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Warriors: Javonte Green, (GTD - Personal); Gary Payton II, (GTD - Ankle); Jonathan Kuminga, (GTD - Knee)
Rockets: Alperen Sengun, (OUT - Ankle); Steven Adams, (OUT - Knee); Tari Eason, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Warriors projections:
Stephen Curry, PG: 41.5 FPTS (25.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 5.1 ast, 4.3 3PM)
Klay Thompson, SG/SF: 29.7 FPTS (17.7 pts, 3.2 reb, 2.6 ast, 3.3 3PM)
Andrew Wiggins, SF/PF: 28.4 FPTS (17.3 pts, 4.9 reb, 2.4 ast)
Trayce Jackson-Davis, PF: 26.2 FPTS (12.6 pts, 7.5 reb, 1.6 ast, 1.8 blk)
Draymond Green, PF/C: 25.9 FPTS (9.7 pts, 7.0 reb, 5.1 ast)
Chris Paul, PG: 23.9 FPTS (9.1 pts, 3.5 reb, 5.1 ast)
Brandin Podziemski, SG: 21.6 FPTS (9.1 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.7 ast)
Rockets projections:
Jalen Green, SG: 38.2 FPTS (23.5 pts, 5.0 reb, 3.7 ast, 2.7 3PM)
Fred VanVleet, PG: 36.3 FPTS (15.5 pts, 3.6 reb, 6.7 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Amen Thompson, SG: 25.2 FPTS (11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 2.3 ast)
Jabari Smith Jr., PF/C: 24.5 FPTS (13.0 pts, 6.4 reb, 1.2 ast)
Cam Whitmore, SF: 20.7 FPTS (12.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 0.7 ast)
Dillon Brooks, SG/SF: 18.9 FPTS (10.3 pts, 3.0 reb, 1.6 ast)
Jock Landale, C: 15.3 FPTS (7.2 pts, 4.7 reb, 1.2 ast)
Denver Nuggets at LA Clippers
10 p.m. Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
BPI Projection: Clippers in the 2nd highest-scoring game of the slate.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD - Foot); Jamal Murray, (GTD - Knee); Nikola Jokic, (GTD - Hip); Vlatko Cancar, (GTD - Knee); Zeke Nnaji, (GTD - Thigh)
Clippers: Jordan Miller, (GTD - Thumb); Moussa Diabate, (GTD - Hand); Kawhi Leonard, (OUT - Knee); Joshua Primo, (OUT - Lower Leg)
Nuggets projections:
Nikola Jokic, C: 57.8 FPTS (26.4 pts, 12.3 reb, 7.8 ast)
Michael Porter Jr., SF: 34.7 FPTS (18.5 pts, 7.0 reb, 1.5 ast, 2.8 3PM)
Aaron Gordon, PF: 31.8 FPTS (15.8 pts, 6.6 reb, 3.9 ast)
Reggie Jackson, PG: 25.6 FPTS (13.7 pts, 2.6 reb, 3.6 ast)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG/SF: 23.9 FPTS (11.2 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.0 ast)
Christian Braun, SG: 17.7 FPTS (8.5 pts, 4.4 reb, 1.5 ast)
Peyton Watson, SF: 15.4 FPTS (7.6 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.1 ast)
Clippers projections:
Paul George, SG/SF/PF: 45.6 FPTS (26.5 pts, 5.3 reb, 4.2 ast, 3.5 3PM)
James Harden, PG/SG: 40.6 FPTS (17.2 pts, 4.9 reb, 8.4 ast, 2.6 3PM)
Ivica Zubac, C: 27.0 FPTS (12.6 pts, 9.2 reb, 1.4 ast, 1.3 blk)
Norman Powell, SG/SF: 24.6 FPTS (15.2 pts, 2.7 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.2 3PM)
Russell Westbrook, PG: 23.0 FPTS (10.6 pts, 3.8 reb, 4.1 ast)
Terance Mann, SG/SF: 16.7 FPTS (8.5 pts, 2.9 reb, 1.2 ast)
Amir Coffey, SG: 12.7 FPTS (6.4 pts, 2.2 reb, 1.0 ast)