While the Dodgers and Padres played a couple games in South Korea last week, the traditional start to the MLB season is later this week. Baltimore is the favorite in the AL East in large part due to their new ace, Corbin Burnes. Thursday, Burnes and the O’s host Mike Trout and the Angels at Camden Yards.
Burnes (+700) enters life in the American League as the favorite for the Cy Young Award in 2024. Kevin Gausman (+750) of the Blue Jays follows close behind followed by Houston’s Frambler Valdez (+800).
The boys of Bet the EDGE broke down the AL and NL Cy Young markets on today’s episode.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) agrees with Burnes being the favorite.
“The Orioles are going to win a ton of games. I think ultimately, not enough improvement has happened across the AL East to suggest to you that there’s going to be a HUGE CORRECTION there. I think he’s kind of the perfect fit to drop in and lead that pitching staff. It’s tough for me to see he won’t have the headline stats to really be a factor here.”
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While Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) agrees with Burnes as a favorite in the market, there are two names on his short list to pay attention to and think about backing.
“Two guys that I would keep an eye on, and they are not the sexiest names but Zach Eflin - his projections are excellent and he’s 30:1 to win the award - and Shane Bieber. If Shane Bieber is healthy and the Guardians start well, he is 30:1 too. His projections are still very strong.”
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Understand, though, that Croucher is cautious about diving into this futures market.
“This is probably the awards market across every sport that I bet the least in the preseason, just because guys come out of nowhere in this award, constantly…I think there is some value in just getting a look at how these guys go (early in the season). Also, guys just go down with injuries during Spring Training. So generally, I don’t want to blast into Gerrit Cole in January and obviously he is not in the discussion anymore, because he’s going to be out for a couple of months.”
So, if not now, when is the right time to buy into this market? Dinsick believes patience is a virtue.
“It’s not now. There are so many examples of early season flameouts and/or injuries. Being patient, biding your time, and then preying on some drifting prices in the May / June timeframe is usually kind of the sweet spot.”
Croucher agrees but does see a couple reasons to wade into the market sooner than later.
“The time now is to jump on long shots…the other way that I think about this is in a macro sense. Who can you afford to wait and get a look at? If Zach Eflin has two good starts out of the gate, his price is not going to move that much. If Corbin Burnes goes 13 scoreless in his first two starts, he’s going to be like +450 immediately.”
By the way, the longshot Croucher is considering is…Carlos Rodon (+4000).
Enjoy Opening Day and the official start to another 162-game slate of sweats.
