'I'm covering the London Mayor election - here's what could stop Sadiq Khan from winning'

Sadiq Khan could become London's longest ever serving mayor next month, if the city's electors choose him once again to captain City Hall. His predecessors, Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson, served two terms each.

The office was only founded in 2000. Mr Khan has repeatedly insisted that he 'does not believe' promising polling that puts him way out in front of his Tory rival - Susan Hall.

A survey of 1,019 Londoners by Survation for ITV revealed last week that the mayor holds 44 per cent of the vote, with his Ms Hall on 26 per cent.

READ MORE: Sadiq Khan lashes out at London bus 'cynics' branding Bakerloop 'just a rail replacement'

This puts her eighteen percentage points behind. Both, however, are positioned more closely as regards approval ratings – Ms Hall on +5 per cent, and Mr Khan on +4 per cent. It came after a Savanta poll for the Centre for London released last month gave Mr Khan a 24 point lead over his Tory rival.

It is my understanding that the mayor's team has a focus on not being complacent, despite these positive signs. Establishing this mood - one that doubtless resembles the outlook of the Labour Party's national campaign team - is obviously a wise move.

'Nothing’s ever in the bag'

As Susan Hall herself told me in October: "Nothing’s ever in the bag. As a politician, if you ever think anything’s in the bag, you’re quite frankly not a proper politician."

An interesting feature of Mr Khan's campaign has been an emphasis on his first name. Posters and leaflets are asking voters to trust in 'Sadiq' once again.

This approach is being used by many local election candidates, including Labour's mayor in Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham. Research has clearly suggested that voters respond well to this, as opposed to an emphasis on parties, and it helps if the person seeking election is a well-known, established figure.

Interestingly, Susan Hall's branding, at least on social media, features a distinct lack of blue. Instead, her adverts are include dark orange underlining and text background. This may be the Harrow councillor's way of trying to distance herself from the national Conservative Party.

On April 5, the latest YouGov poll put the Tories on 20 percentage points across the country, with Labour 23 ahead on 43 per cent. Encouraging surveys like this are being dismissed by Mr Khan, but they are nevertheless good news for his fortunes in the capital, as the public's opinions about national issues always play a part in local ballots.

A yearning for change at the top is a powerful force, albeit now somewhat of a cliché

The capital is of course a 'Labour city' anyway, and the party's good country-wide fortunes will most likely give the mayor a further boost. However, there is a chance that Mr Khan longevity may work against him.

Voters may have a sense of Sadiq fatigue, as City Hall's incumbent has already been in the job for eight years. That seems to be the length of time that Londoners are comfortable retaining their leaders for.

A yearning for change at the top is a powerful force, albeit now somewhat of a cliché. John Major, Gordon Brown and now Rishi Sunak are all too aware of this. Although, some electors may choose to vote for Mr Khan simply because they know who he is.

Ms Hall is presenting herself as an alternative. The former hairdresser owner will be hoping to garner as many votes from those disgruntled with the status quo as possible.

This portion of the city's electorate is the key to her potential victory. Some places are pretty much guaranteed to return Labour London Assembly candidates and Mr Khan as mayor. During a recent interview with MyLondon, the Reform UK candidate, Howard Cox, volunteered that people in Islington, for example, will most likely not be putting their crosses in his box.

Ms Hall will be aware that it seems as though she will have more joy in Outer London, a lot of which was encompassed by the ULEZ in August, than in the centre of the capital. Whether or not it affects them personally - TfL says that 95 per cent of vehicles seen driving in London on an average working day are compliant with emission rules and therefore do not incur a £12.50 daily fee - a number of residents do not like the idea of more rules and cameras in what is now the world's largest clean air zone.

What counts is people’s daily experience

In addition, the Tory candidate is focusing on crime. Mr Khan says that he is tackling it as if it were an 'infection' by cutting out violence before it has a chance to spread.

The mayor says that, over the past eight years, there has been a reduction in gun crime and homicides by both knife and guns. He adds that fewer young people - under the age of 25 - have been injured with a knife and there have been fewer burglaries. But Mr Khan added that there are still too many violent incidents.

Regardless of the figures, what counts is people’s daily experience, and what seems to be a regular influx of horrible news reports about the latest grisly incidents in London. This, at times, produces a frightening atmosphere and sense of anarchy.

Another topic regularly mentioned by Mr Khan and Ms Hall is housing. This is deeply intertwined with the cost of living. Voters sometimes have a tendency to have a go at whoever is in charge when their individual finances are not in a good way, regardless of whether or not it is their fault.

Some would suggest that this happened in 2010 as Labour was ousted from power amid the financial crisis, and may happen across the pond if Joe Biden were ousted by a certain Mr Trump in the US in November. But, some discontent may be countered in London by the fact that financial struggles and a lack of purchasing power tend to impact young people acutely. Voters in this demographic tend to be more likely to support Labour.

One aspect of the election that will be particularly interesting to observe - if you are a nerd like me - is the impact of the shift from a supplementary voting system to first past the post, the system used at general elections. Mr Khan was helped out by Liberal Democrat and Green voters selecting him as their second choice in 2021, with their votes being added to the first preference votes in a second round.

Now, he is asking 'progressive' Londoners to 'lend him their vote' on May 2. Furthermore, the mayor fears the impact of the introduction of mandatory voter ID.

'People were lulled into a false sense of security'

Mr Khan has said that he fears that 900,000 people could be turned away from polling stations for not bringing an acceptable form of documentation with them. Behind this warning is mostly likely a fear that the mayor's support base, which includes a lot of those who are less well-off financially and ethnic minorities, are less likely to possess photo ID.

However, a lot of older Tory voters may not have passports nor photo driver licenses, instead still possessing a paper version, and as a result may also be unable to cast their votes.

In March, when asked about his prospects, Mr Khan told MyLondon that polls narrowed in 2021 when he took on Lord Bailey for the city's leadership. He added: "There was a sense of complacency - people were lulled into a false sense of security, who were Labour supporters."

Turnout will be crucial, and may well be low as fatigue with politics in general grips the city and country. Rarely in Britain's modern history has political turmoil been such a constant feature of people's lives.

All of the above - I appreciate I went on a bit - means that, if I were to put money on it, I would bet on Mr Khan being returned. But, a mix of technical and emotional factors could mean that the gap between he and Ms Hall will be smaller than polls are predicting.

Read our exclusive sit-down interview with Sadiq Khan ahead of the London mayoral election here. Read our full chat with Susan Hall here.

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