Welcome to Monday’s Early Edition from i.

“The Middle East is on the brink. The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate,” UN Secretary General António Guterres told the Security Council on Sunday.

Fears that Iran would respond to Israel’s air strikes on a consulate in Damascus had become reality a day earlier, as it fired 300 drones and missiles at the country. It is the first time Tehran has directly attacked Israel, despite the two being engaged in a decades-long shadow war across the region.

The assault allowed Iran to show off some of its military capability, which it has built up despite heavy Western sanctions. It also allowed Israel to flex the might of its defence systems, with the IDF reporting that 99 per cent of the threats had been intercepted – though a girl was seriously injured. While military prowess may be a significant factor in the conflict – with some raising concerns at how close Iran may be to building a nuclear weapon – the most pressing question is on what happens next.

A US official on Sunday said “it is a calculation the Israelis have to make” when asked if the White House would caution against a response. What Netanyahu’s government decides could have far-reaching implications for regional and global security. We’ll take a look at what may come, after the other headlines.

 Today’s news, and why it matters

 The Government learnt about a major Chinese hack on MPs two years ago but did not warn them until March, i can reveal. MPs were not told about attempts from a Chinese state affiliated group to hack their parliamentary accounts until March of this year, despite the UK government being informed about the attempts in 2022, according to a leaked FBI document obtained by i.

More than 250 survivors of the Manchester Arena bomb attack are taking legal action against MI5, lawyers representing them have confirmed. Twenty-two people died and hundreds were injured after Salman Abedi detonated a bomb in the venue at the end of an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.

How “dining clubs” help keep party donors secret. Some dining clubs offer access to ministers as a perk of the membership fee, which can be up to £50,000, reports Eleanor Langford.

More than 2,000 NHS buildings in England pre-date the creation of the health service, according to new research, sparking concerns about the safety of patients and staff. Analysis of NHS Digital data by the Liberal Democrats found 34 of 211 NHS trusts had at least one building out of four which had been standing before 1948 – the year the health service was founded.

A carbon tablet smaller than a grain of salt could be used to prevent cirrhosis of the liver in as little as three years, scientists claim. Experiments in rats and mice found the tablets prevented liver scarring and reduced acute chronic liver failure, raising hopes that they could be used for human patients at risk of cirrhosis, which can be fatal.

Four questions on Iran’s attack:

Which weapons did Iran use? Israel said Iran launched 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles and at least 120 ballistic missiles in the assault. The projectiles were fired from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. A US intelligence assessment earlier this year said that Tehran has dedicated itself towards “improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of its missiles”. Israeli and American early-warning systems detected the launch of Shahed drones before Iran’s faster-moving missiles targeting military bases in northern and southern Israel were unleashed. Tehran is understood to have amassed more than 20 different models of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), including advanced surveillance drones and 10 types of “kamikaze” drone, which crashes into its target. Experts also suggested that Tehran had used its Paveh cruise missile, as a measure of the sophistication of this weekend’s assault. Read more about Iran’s weapons arsenal here.

Will Israel respond? All eyes are currently on what Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will do next. On Sunday he convened his five-member war cabinet, the majority of which reportedly favours a response of some kind, but members are split on the scale and timing of one. While some members of the war cabinet were understood to have proposed an immediate retaliatory strike, this was called off due to pressure from US president Joe Biden, the New York Times said. Prior to the meeting, Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s wartime unity government, said: “We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us.” Israel’s Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile, said the confrontation with Iran was “not over yet”, and Israel’s Channel 12 TV cited an unnamed Israeli official as saying there would be a “significant response”. IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said they had drawn up plans for “offensive and defensive” action. Western allies have condemned Iran and expressed solidarity with Israel, but have also warned against regional escalation. A top US official said Washington had informed Israel it did not plan on striking Iran itself. Joe Biden’s National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said: “The President does not believe it needs to move in that direction whatsoever,” when asked about a wider conflict.And any decision made by Israel may have to consider the mood at home. Dr Alon Liel, a former head of Israel’s foreign ministry, told i there is no public appetite for Mr Netanyahu to escalate hostilities with Tehran. “While Netanyahu will face pressure from the right to retaliate to Iran’s attack, he needs to resist and focus on getting the hostages home. If he’s interested in keeping the hugely important support from the US, then he will not escalate things with Iran any further,” he said. Read that story here.

What happens if there is an escalation? Iran has already warned Israel its response “will be much larger than tonight’s military action if Israel retaliates against Iran”. Masoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Middle East programmes at the Atlantic Council think-tank, warned that tit-for-tat strikes could cause regional players and those involved in helping Israel “targeted and dragged into the regional conflagration to a higher degree than shooting down a few drones”. A worst-case scenario could see Iran’s allies Syria and Iraq also drawn into a wider conflict. Rishi Sunak said on Sunday that “the fallout for regional stability would be hard to overstate” had Iran’s attack on Israel been successful. But could Western countries help prevent it escalating into all-out war? Read the full piece here. Patrick Cockburn notes: “It is not yet clear how far the political and military balance in the Middle East has been changed by the latest escalation. The seven-month long war in Gaza is showing no sign of ending, making an all-out military confrontation between Israel and Iran look more and more likely.” Read his analysis here.

How is the UK involved? The UK is one of several countries, including the US and France, which helped to counter Saturday’s attack. Rishi Sunak confirmed that British RAF jets shot down a number of Iranian drones in the assault. Additional RAF war planes were deployed over Iraq and Syria, where armed forces were already operating as part of the Operation Shader mission against the so-called Islamic State. The Ministry of Defence said: “In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government has been working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks.” Tobias Ellwood, former defence minister and former Defence Committee chairman,told the Telegraph on Sunday: “It’s very clear that Britain will stand with Israel to help defend its guys and its soil along with the United States as well.” Read the full story here. It’s expected that Mr Sunak will make a statement on the conflict in the Commons today. And as Anne McElvoy notes: “When the Commons meets on Monday in emergency session, we will see alignment between Labour and the Conservatives on the “deep concern” narrative and calls for calm. Beneath that unity however, lies uncertainty and tension about what should follow. The Government is seeking to balance support for Israel – which will now have to be explicitly restated by Labour and the Tories – with appeals for bigger and faster humanitarian aide and how soon a durable ceasefire can be achieved in Gaza. Failures are more likely than successes in such matters.” Read her piece, here.

Around the world

 Australian police are investigating whether Joel Cauchi, the man who killed six people in a Sydney shopping mall, targeted women. “It’s obvious to me, it’s obvious to detectives that seems to be an area of interest that the offender focused on women and avoided the men,” NSW Police Commissioner Karen Webb said.

Donald Trump will set foot in a New York courthouse on Monday and become the first former US president to stand trial in a criminal case. He is accused of falsifying his business records to disguise a hush-money payment made to Stormy Daniels, a former adult film star, shortly before the 2016 election.

The UK’s love affair with Japan is growing, as the nation throws open its doors to British workers looking to work remotely from the country. Japan now offers a six-month digital nomad visa, which tacked on to any existing three-month “tourist” visa will give British Japanophiles nine months to pursue remote work and sightseeing.

A study has revealed that Parisians use bicycles more than cars. Researchers from the Paris Region Institute found that 11 per cent of journeys by ­Parisians were on bicycles, compared with 9 per cent in cars, 44 per cent on foot and 34 per cent by public transport.

 Watch out for…

 Westminster, where MPs return from Easter recess today. All eyes will be on the latest round of wrangling over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda Bill, as MPs consider amendments by the House of Lords. 

 Thoughts for the day

 A new generation of MPs is just what Westminster needs. The loss of the old guard is an opportunity for a big change in the way MPs operate – and it could help us all, argues Isabel Hardman.

We have the answer to ending toxic culture wars. A better evidence base is slaying unsubstantiated shibboleths, writes Sebastian Payne.

We don’t need Liz Truss’s book when our bills still show the consequences. Her husband had correctly predicted “it would all end in tears”, notes Stefano Hatfield.

Culture Break

 Ed Gamble: “I need to make sure I’m the best posh straight white man in comedy”. How did a stand-up comedian become one of the most influential people in British food? Sarah Carson goes for lunch with him to find out.

The Big Read

 Is Covid still a threat four years on from the first wave? i asked leading Covid scientists about their reasons for optimism – and for concern – about the virus.

Sport

 Harlequins make history, Lawes stars for Saints and more rugby talking points. The biggest talking points from rugby across Europe this weekend, according to Hugh Godwin.

Something to brighten your day

 Urban gardeners better at helping to revive nature than rural counterparts. Study finds you “get a better return on your investment” by making a city garden more insect-friendly than you do a country garden, writes Tom Bawden.