The Sinhala and Tamil New Year may have diminished the pace of political activity in the country as political leaders took a breather for the festivities (with many taking wing abroad) but that has not dampened the enthusiasm of the major political parties that remain very much focused on the elections due this year.
Many of these parties have issues and challenges that are unique to themselves. Arguably the worst hit at this time is the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) where the dispute between the factions headed by two former Presidents, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Maithripala Sirisena is at its peak.
The current situation is that Kumaratunga has obtained an enjoining order restraining Sirisena from functioning as Chairman of the SLFP. This is due to be heard further in Court today (Thursday). In the interim, the Politburo of the SLFP met and appointed Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva as Acting Chairman.
The two factions are also locked in a battle to gain access to the party’s headquarters in Darley Road, Colombo. This tussle is eerily reminiscent of the battle between former Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike and Maithripala Senanayake for the SLFP leadership and control of its party headquarters four decades ago.
Whatever the outcome of the Court proceedings and whichever faction emerges ahead, there is no denying that the credibility of the SLFP and its popularity has taken a severe beating. As a result, it is no longer in a position to be a force to reckon with at major national elections due later in the year.
There is a slight possibility for the party to have a reversal of its misfortune if the Court holds in Kumaratunga’s favour which could result in a change of leadership of the SLFP. However, the absence of a single personality as a clear choice to succeed Sirisena reduces this prospect drastically.
Minister de Silva has been appointed as an ‘Interim’ Chairman but does not possess the charismatic leadership qualities or the youthful dynamism that are required to resurrect the SLFP, most party stalwarts feel. They also believe reconciliation between the warring factions is unlikely at this stage.
The role of the SLFP’s former General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekara in this dispute has been quite interesting. Jayasekara was recently locked in a dispute with Sirisena who sacked him from his position as General Secretary. Therefore, it was expected he would join those opposed to Sirisena.
Instead, Jayasekara has chosen to do the opposite. He has spoken out against the action taken by Kumaratunga and her allies calling it a ‘conspiracy’ to destroy the SLFP. This has been interpreted as an attempt to win Sirisena’s confidence and cement his position as No.2 under Sirisena’s leadership.
This is a decisive call that Jayasekara is making. Once known as a leading stalwart in the United National Party (UNP), Jayasekara left that party to seek better avenues to progress his career. He has now identified himself with the Sirisena faction in a step that could make or break his political future.
While the SLFP is trying to put its house in order, its erstwhile rival, the UNP has also been engaging in some soul searching of its own in preparation for elections. President Ranil Wickremesinghe has constantly reviewed the state of the party’s grassroots network after its resounding defeat in 2020.
As the leader of the country, President Wickremesinghe has had to focus his time and energy to resurrecting the country’s economy. He has delegated the task of rejuvenating the UNP to the second-tier leadership of the party. While this is underway, it still has not elevated the UNP to its glory days.
Some UNP stalwarts argue that this is a difficult task as the party’s representation in Parliament has been reduced to a solitary National List seat. However, it must be noted that the Jathika Jana Balavegaya (JJB) or the National People’s Power (NPP), with just three MPs in Parliament has made great strides in setting up and expanding its party network.
However, it is now certain that if President Wickremesinghe puts himself forward as a candidate for the Presidential Election (PE) that must be held by October, he will not run from the UNP per se. Instead, he will project himself as a ‘common’ candidate and contest under a symbol different from the UNP’s ‘Elephant.’
Despite the ‘Elephant’s historical value as a symbol readily recognised by the Sri Lankan voter, it has been suggested that the President will be at an advantage if he contests with a ‘neutral’ symbol. This enables the President to project himself as a statesman, devoid of petty and parochial party politics.
There is no shortage of parties and symbols for the President to choose from. The frontrunner at this time is the ‘Swan’ which has been used a couple of times before in PEs. The rights to this symbol are now with former Minister Ravi Karunanayake. This is the symbol which propelled Maithripala Sirisena to the Presidency in 2015.
Also available to the President are parties that are under the direction of Minister of Tiran Alles. They possess the symbols of the cellular phone and the trophy. It was the latter that was used at the 2010 General Elections (GE) by the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka and Arjuna Ranatunga.
It is clear that the UNP and President Wickremesinghe in particular are pursuing an ‘open door’ policy of welcoming all politicians to join the President for the next PE and GE. In fact, the General Secretary of the UNP Palitha Range Bandara even made references to specific politicians in this regard recently.
“What we are thinking of is a joint effort which goes beyond party politics. So, we invite all political parties to join hands to achieve the common goal of making Sri Lanka a stable nation,” Bandara told the media on Tuesday when asked whether his party would welcome any SLFP members who are in crisis.
Bandara also invited several MPs from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) to join his leader. “We call on Dr. Harsha de Silva, Eran Wickramaratne, Kabir Hashim and Thalatha Athukorala to join us,” Bandara said. He claimed that these Parliamentarians were being “sidelined” by SJB and Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa.
The UNP will find the task of wooing disgruntled or disappointed SJB MPs far easier than enlisting the support of the party President Wickremesinghe governs with, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). There are two equally strong schools of thought in that party about this crucial issue.
One is that President Wickremesinghe should be given another term of office to complete the task of rescuing the economy which he has begun. This is best articulated by Minister Prasanna Ranatunga. Another faction in the party resists this idea, suggesting that the SLPP should field its own candidate.
The statements of various party stalwarts- including Ranatunga and new National Organiser Namal Rajapaksa – did not help the SLPP project an image of unity in the party. As a result, the party has now asked its members to refrain from making statements about PE candidates until the party makes a formal decision in due course.
Against this backdrop, there is yet another group carrying out discussions of its own to try and put forward a candidate for the PE. They include the group led by Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila as well as some from the Nidahasa Jathika Sabhawa (NJS). This dialogue is ongoing.
There are a diverse range of politicians involved in this process. Whether they will be able to find common ground and agree on a candidate agreeable to all the parties in the dialogue remains to be seen. Whether such a candidate can then command a following among the public is also an issue.
The other party in the PE race, the NPP does not have to deal with such matters. It has steadily built up its support network and expanded its vote base. Its leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) is its confirmed candidate. There are no disputes about that. However, even the NPP is now scrutinising its campaign.
This is after concerns were raised as to whether the NPP can sustain the early momentum it generated. This peaked early last year in the aftermath of the turmoil that led to the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and the postponement of Local Government (LG) polls. Now though, its support may be falling. Sri Lankans have short memories and most parties cannot sustain a momentum gained from a couple of events.
All this hectic political activity points in only one direction, towards the PE later this year. Next week will see a flurry of political events and pronouncements as parties vie against each other to recapture the attention of voters. It all points to a very interesting few months ahead.
This column also notes with sadness the passing away of Sarvodaya founder Dr. A.T. Ariyaratne, who, although not a career politician, was influential in political circles with his analytical comments on the local political scene. He was also an unofficial ambassador for Sri Lanka, having close relationships with many world leaders.
The week also marked the sudden death of former MP Palitha Thevarapperuma, a maverick politician who was popular among the electorate for always siding with the common people, sometimes even going against party dictates. He was also an animal lover, who fed stray animals during the Covid lockdown period at his own expense. As a junior minister for wildlife conservation, he even had a couple of heated arguments with his Minister Field Marshal Fonseka, which no one else would have dared to do. However, he kept a low profile after retiring from active politics, occasionally popping up to give a voice cut or two.
