Early Summer heat & humidity leads to the chance for strong Spring style storms
The combination of heat and humidity is making it feel a lot more like late May across Central Texas. The warmest day of the week will be Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s & heat index values in the low-to-mid 90s. This combination of heat and humidity is also fuel for strong thunderstorms, and as a cold front approaches Central Texas we will likely see some strong storm fire up in our area. Storms are likely to form across our northwestern counties around 4-5pm, and will gradually drift southeast through the late afternoon/early evening. The main threat from these storms will be large hail (possibly golf ball size or larger), and damaging straight line winds. Once the sun sets we will start to lose some of the fuel for these storms, so we expect to see storm quickly lose their strength around 9-10pm.
When Thursday’s rain comes to a close overnight, the arriving front should help to bring us slightly cooler and less humid air! We’ll start out close to 60° Friday morning and then warm into the mid-to-upper 70s with only a 20% rain chance. A much higher rain chance returns Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as a big storm system pushes through the state. Although severe storms are unlikely from Saturday afternoon and overnight storms, the storms should contain locally heavy downpours and maybe some gusty winds too. Rain should gradually come to a close from west-to-east and we’ll likely tally 1″ to 3″ of rain when all is set and done!
A big change, albeit brief change, is on the way to temperatures behind the weekend rain. High temperatures Saturday will likely only warm into the low-to-mid 70s and may drop into the 60s when the rain starts to push through. When the rain finishes, even with returning sunshine for some late Sunday, high temperatures may only warm into the low-to-mid 60s! Although the change in temperatures late this weekend won’t last for long, we’re expecting a few days of cooler than normal temperatures. Highs on Monday will only warm into the low 70s with upper 70s returning by Tuesday. Mid-week storm chances will return next week and although it’s too early for specifics on how strong the mid-week storms will be, long range forecast model data is showing the Central and Southern Plains severe weather season will ramp up late this month and into May.
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