Lewis Hamilton and George Russell hailed their “best session” of the year so far in Suzuka yesterday but warned Mercedes fans “not to expect too much” ahead of qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix on Saturday.
The British duo have endured a torrid 2024 season so far, with the W15 proving to be just as troublesome as its predecessors the W13 and the W14. Most worryingly, after a big reboot over the winter, intended to give the team a more stable platform, the car has lurched wildly in terms of its performance from one session to the next.
That maddening inconsistency, which stems from the failure to replicate on track what the team is seeing in the wind tunnel and in the simulator back at Brackley, explains why the two drivers are remaining so cautious ahead of qualifying, which takes place at 6am UK time on Saturday morning.
But Hamilton, especially, could not resist getting just a little bit excited after going fifth quickest in first practice at the fast and flowing Suzuka circuit in Japan, just behind his teammate Russell. Both Mercedes drivers were within half a second of Max Verstappen’s Red Bull. The second session was a washout, with the times completely irrelevant.
“It was the best session for us so far this year and the best the car has felt,” Hamilton reported afterwards. “I felt very positive and excited heading into FP2 as this is a circuit that every driver loves to drive. It was a shame not to get much running in, therefore.”
Given they retired from ninth and seventh places respectively at the last race in Melbourne two weeks ago, it represented progression of sorts. Even if there, as in Japan, Mercedes showed speed in practice before failing to perform when it really mattered.
Mercedes have not brought any upgrades to Japan in terms of parts. But Hamilton – whose results of seventh, ninth and DNF make this, statistically speaking at least, his worst ever start to a Formula One season – added that he hoped the team could build on their strong Friday.
“In the last two years here, we’ve struggled with a car that has had an inconsistent balance and has been difficult to drive. The team has done a lot of great work since Australia, and we seemed to hit the ground running today. The car was definitely in a sweeter spot. We’ve got a better baseline to start from this weekend and hopefully we can build on that.”
Russell noted that the W15 has shown a tendency thus far to perform better in cooler conditions, with the air temperature expected to rise slightly for qualifying. “So that is a note of caution,” Russell said. But the 26-year-old added that their focus in Japan had been to “make the car more consistent in variable conditions” so perhaps they will be better equipped to cope with a slight temperature rise.
The stakes are sufficiently high for Mercedes that team principal Toto Wolff abandoned his plan to work remotely at this race, as he has for the last few years. Wolff said it was only right that he turned up in person when the team was experiencing a tough time.
“I think it’s important to be with the race team...it does me good also, to be close to the action,” he explained.
Mercedes considering Hamilton replacement options
Wolff is also sizing up potential replacements for Ferrari-bound Hamilton, of course. The Austrian was asked on Friday about the possibility of bringing four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel out of retirement, a possibility the German raised himself earlier this week. Wolff said he would “never discount” a move for Vettel.
But the smart money – assuming Mercedes cannot poach Verstappen, who remains Wolff’s absolute first choice – is on F2 starlet Kimi Antonelli.
Wolff has hinted he would rather wait to see whether the Italian has what it takes than rush into a marriage of convenience, which could rule out a move for someone like Carlos Sainz, who is making way for Hamilton at Maranello, as the Spaniard is likely to want to secure his future sooner than Mercedes will want to make a decision. Fernando Alonso likewise could also be ruled out on those grounds if he is prepared to make Aston Martin really sweat over a renewal.
There remains the possibility that a Red Bull seat opens up, of course, although it feels increasingly as if Sergio Perez will secure a renewal if he can finish consistently second fastest behind Verstappen.
“The driver market is very dynamic,” Wolff said. “Some of the really good guys are about to sign for some of the other teams. We want to continue to have this discussion and keep the options open, but at that stage I think it’s much too early for us to commit to a driver, whether very young or very experienced – I don’t want to say old! The next few months will give us more clues.”