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Jobs Report Today: Hiring Blows Past Projections
Follow the latest news and analysis of the March nonfarm payrolls report.
Last Updated:
April 8, 2024 at 3:50 AM EDT
A Deeper Look at the Numbers
Friday's jobs report surpassed projections.
The U.S. added 303,000 jobs in March according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected the data to show a payroll gain of 205,000 last month. The BLS reported a revised 270,000 jobs added in February.
The bulk of March’s job gains occurred in healthcare, government, and construction.
The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 3.8% from 3.9% in February.
Wage growth, a closely watched metric, bounced higher last month to 0.3% from the 0.2% logged in February.
Follow our coverage of the report below.
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The March jobs report was a very good one for everyday Americans. Payroll gains were very strong, unemployment remained low, wages grew more quickly than inflation, and some of the previous mixed signals on the strength of the job market seemed to fade.
But with the labor market so strong, it brings up the question: What does this mean for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve? Are three cuts of a quarter of a percentage point still feasible for this year?
Many economists and analysts say that Friday’s report likely doesn’t change what the Fed will do. Chair Jerome Powell himself said following the March policy meeting that strong job growth alone wouldn't be enough to keep the Federal Open Market Committee from starting to lower the fed funds rate.
“The monetary policy implications of the March employment report are minimal,” writes Dante DeAntonio, Moody’s Analytics labor economist.
While payroll gains came in much stronger than expected, the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings were in line with expectations, so there is some optimism that the Fed will look past the hiring numbers as it considers the bigger picture. And many economists and Fed watchers predict the Fed will start cutting in June—the odds of that remain at around 60%, writes Rob Swanke, senior equity strategist for Commonwealth Financial Network.
“The bar for starting an easing cycle has little to do with the labor market—it is the inflation picture that will be determinant,” writes Eric Winograd, AllianceBernstein’s director of developed- market economic research.
That means next week’s consumer price index inflation reading is more important to near-term monetary policy than Friday’s employment data. Fed officials will have two additional employment reports—for April and May—in hand by the time the committee meets in early June. Several additional reports on inflation will affect their thinking as well.
“If the Fed is confident that inflation is sliding, they will cut even if the labor market is strong,” Winograd says.
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In recent months, there have been some mixed signals in the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data around the true state of the U.S. job market. The bureau uses two surveys to compile its jobs report, and one had shown much more strength than the other.
Friday’s data, however, shows that the secondary household survey, which has been significantly weaker recently, is “finally converging with the stronger establishment survey,” writes ZipRecruiter Chief Economist Julia Pollak. Generally speaking, the household survey is used to track the unemployment rate, while a survey of establishments tracks payrolls.
The convergence of what the two surveys show is due, in part, to the fact that Friday’s household survey showed that the U.S civilian labor force grew by 469,000. The number of Americans employed grew by 498,000. Additionally, the labor-force participation rate hit 62.7%, a modest uptick from the 62.5% rate logged in February and January.
Another sign of strength is that the average workweek, tracked by the establishment survey, surprisingly went up. Last month, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up to 34.4 hours from 34.3 hours logged in February.
“We have found plenty of reasons to poke holes in the payroll data of the last several months, but that is a much harder exercise to perform today,” writes Thomas Simons, senior economist at Jefferies.
“The data leaves us borderline speechless. We were optimistic about the payroll numbers coming into today based on recent trends in jobless claims and momentum from prior months, but we did not expect to see such strong data around the periphery and within the details,” Simons said.
Updated 16 days ago
Much of the recent hiring has been in areas that are less affected by higher interest rates, such as the public sector and education, but the latest data show that broadened slightly last month.
The bulk of March’s job gains occurred in healthcare, government, and construction, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
Healthcare added 72,000 jobs in March, which is a bit above the average monthly gain of 60,000 the sector has posted over the last year. In March, hiring within healthcare was strongest in ambulatory healthcare services, hospitals, and nursing and residential care facilities.
Government employment grew by 71,000 last month. That is markedly higher than the 54,000 jobs that the public sector has added on an average monthly basis over the past 12 months. Local governments continue to lead the way.
The construction sector significantly picked up the pace of hiring last month, adding 39,000 jobs in March. Over the past year, construction has only added an average of about 19,000 jobs a month.
Employment in leisure and hospitality returned to prepandemic levels after several years of slow job growth, adding 49,000 jobs in March. Over the past year, job growth in the sector had averaged 37,000 per month.