The first round of the NHL playoffs is arguably the best part of the entire hockey season. It’s electric — the speed, the ramped-up physicality, the chess-like matchup game and the heroes and villains make for must-watch TV. The luxury of having four of those games every day, while players are at their freshest, is the icing on top for hockey fans.
There are so many intriguing playoff topics that we can’t cover every angle, but here are seven of the most fascinating storylines heading into Round 1.
Canucks: Contenders or pretenders?
Vancouver’s emergence as Pacific Division champions is one of the biggest surprises of the season. Before 2023-24, the Canucks were a dysfunctional mess, having missed the playoffs in seven of the last eight years. The Canucks were expected to be a bubble wild-card team at best, yet here they are with the second-best record in the Western Conference.
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The big debate now is how formidable (or not) they are as Stanley Cup contenders. They look like the ultimate mystery box team — you can spin an equally convincing narrative for them as you can against them.
Vancouver’s bull case as a contender starts with the star talent it has at every position: Quinn Hughes on the blue line, Thatcher Demko in net, a pair of forwards in J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson that have had a 100-point season within the last two years, and a newly minted 40-goal scorer in Brock Boeser. The Canucks were fuelled by a PDO bender at the start of the season but have quietly become a possession powerhouse at even strength.
Since Jan. 1, the Canucks rank top five in the NHL for controlling five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals. The Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers — all considered bona fide Cup contenders — are the other teams in the top five in those categories.
This territorial dominance is on the back of Vancouver’s elite defensive metrics: The Hurricanes are the only team that surrendered fewer five-on-five shots and expected goals against in that timeframe. There’s no “easy” matchup in the Western Conference, but in Round 1, the Canucks will play the Nashville Predators, a favorable opponent compared to the Vegas Golden Knights or Los Angeles Kings.
The Canucks’ bear case includes their lack of playoff experience, sliding special teams (25th-ranked power play and 20th-ranked penalty kill since the All-Star break) and their slowing offence (24th in goals scored per game since the All-Star break). There’s also the possibility the Canucks overachieved in the regular season because of best-case scenarios unfolding.
Round 1 will give us a pretty good indication of just how threatening the Canucks are.
Could Avalanche’s goaltending woes sink them?
In 2022, the Colorado Avalanche proved they could win the Stanley Cup without top-notch goaltending. That year, Darcy Kuemper, hampered by an eye injury, posted a mediocre .902 save percentage en route to Colorado’s championship. Even with that history in mind, Alexandar Georgiev’s form is worrying.
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Georgiev has an .897 save percentage over 63 games this season. More sophisticated goaltending metrics, such as Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected, suggest that Georgiev has performed only slightly below average considering the volume of high-danger chances he’s faced. The problem is that he’s playing some of his worst hockey heading into the playoffs. Georgiev has surrendered at least four goals in five of his last six games, including an ugly .840 save percentage. He was pulled after allowing four goals on 15 shots against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday. The next night, he blew a 3-0 lead against the Golden Knights, with the Avs losing in overtime.
With Colorado facing Winnipeg, Georgiev versus Connor Hellebuyck is the most lopsided goaltending matchup of the first round. This should worry Avs fans, but they can take some solace in looking at the results of last year’s goaltending mismatches.
The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Tampa Bay Lightning despite an Ilya Samsonov versus Andrei Vasilevkskiy matchup. The New Jersey Devils beat the New York Rangers despite having Vitek Vanecek against Igor Shesterkin. Florida beat the Boston Bruins despite starting the series with Alex Lyon versus Linus Ullmark, the Vezina Trophy winner. Carolina beat the New York Islanders despite having to contend with Ilya Sorokin. Vegas beat Winnipeg despite a Laurent Brossoit versus Hellebuyck matchup.
Those examples should alleviate some anxiety, but Colorado will need Georgiev to steady his game if the Avalanche intend to make a deep run.
Panarin playoff redemption?
Artemi Panarin is a world-class talent, but the playoffs have not been kind to him recently.
He didn’t register a single primary point (just two secondary assists) and had some of the worst underlying numbers of all Rangers forwards in their seven-game first-round series loss to the Devils last year. During the Rangers’ trip to the Eastern Conference final in 2022, he scored 16 points in 20 games, a far cry from the 96 points in 75 games he produced in the regular season. He wasn’t enough of a driver at even strength, scoring just one five-on-five point in six games against the Lightning in the conference final.
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Overall, Panarin has 46 points in 57 playoff games. Those aren’t horrible numbers, but it would translate to a 66-point pace over an 82-game regular season, which isn’t enough for a superstar making $11.6 million per year.
The Rangers have a dangerous team, but they need Panarin firing on all cylinders to push for the Stanley Cup. The good news is that his confidence should be at an all-time high. Panarin erupted for a career-high 120 points this season. He’s easily been the Rangers’ MVP and has reinvented himself as a goal scorer, putting up 49 goals after failing to crack 30 goals in the four seasons prior.
Panarin’s goal-scoring evolution should make him more difficult to contain in the playoffs. Now, he looks capable of cutting to the inside and doing damage from high-traffic areas as a shooter, instead of being solely reliant on his east-west playmaking.
New York has the easiest first-round opponent in Washington, so Round 1 is far from the toughest test, but hopefully, it’s the start of Panarin’s playoff redemption story.
Will Leafs’ blue line, goaltending get exposed?
Toronto and Boston is a fascinating matchup of perennially strong regular-season teams that have underachieved in the playoffs recently. The Leafs’ postseason woes are well-documented, but Boston’s picked up a recent habit of playoff choking, too. Since the 2020-21 season, Boston has the best regular-season record of all NHL teams, yet it’s won just one playoff round over the three years, with back-to-back first-round exits. That includes infamously blowing a 3-1 series lead to the Panthers, the second wild-card team, after a historic regular season last spring.
The Bruins have had the Leafs’ number since 2013, but this is still a more favorable scenario for Toronto than drawing the Panthers, who are superior to Boston on paper and easily handled Toronto in Round 2 last year.
Offensively, the Leafs have more firepower than the Bruins. They have Auston Matthews (69 goals), William Nylander (98 points) and Mitch Marner (85 points in 69 games). David Pastrňák, meanwhile, is the only Bruins forward who eclipsed 70 points this season. Toronto’s secondary scoring has also caught fire lately: Tyler Bertuzzi has 15 goals in 28 games since the All-Star break, and Max Domi has 20 points in his last 25 games (although he missed the last two games of the regular season with an injury).
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Boston has a substantial edge, however, on the blue line and in net. Toronto’s lack of puck-moving chops from the back end was a clear issue in the playoffs last year, especially against Florida’s heavy forecheck. That hasn’t been solved, and on top of that, T.J. Brodie’s sharp decline leaves the Leafs without a trustworthy shutdown pair to throw out against Pastrňák. Toronto has plenty of physical depth on the blue line but it lacks a high-end top-four workhorse or two. Maybe it won’t kill the Leafs in Round 1, but it feels like a problem that will eventually catch up to them, and likely sooner rather than later.
The Leafs’ middling blue line wouldn’t be as much of a concern if it wasn’t also for the question marks in net with Ilya Samsonov. They don’t have goaltending that can bail them out like the Bruins do with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Toronto is uber-talented offensively, but lackluster defense and goaltending make it difficult to see the Leafs getting past the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Can Stone, Golden Knights flip a switch?
After firing on all cylinders for the first three weeks of the season, the Golden Knights haven’t played anywhere near their peak. Vegas went 34-28-7 through the final 69 games, ranking 10th among Western Conference teams in points percentage during that timeframe.
Injuries are, of course, a big part of the story: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo, William Karlsson, Shea Theodore, Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez and Zach Whitecloud are among Vegas’ players who have played fewer than 70 games this season. But even when Vegas has had most of its roster available, it hasn’t sustained elite contender form.
On paper, the Golden Knights have a stacked roster. They have an elite blue line with mobility, size and two-way skill. The forward group is exceptionally deep, especially with Tomáš Hertl’s acquisition. The question now comes down to whether Stone and Alex Pietrangelo (who hasn’t played since April 2) returning can help Vegas flip a switch and find its fastball again. It’d be a huge help if one of Adin Hill or Logan Thompson could heat up in net, too.
There won’t be any grace period as Vegas will go toe-to-toe against one of the Western Conference’s top heavyweights in either Dallas or Edmonton in Round 1.
Will Oilers’ secondary scoring come through?
Edmonton’s goaltending and blue line stand out as the team’s two biggest question marks for the playoffs. But another key wild card that hasn’t been discussed as prevalently is the Oilers’ scoring beyond Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
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Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane and Zach Hyman combined for just three five-on-five goals during the 2023 playoffs, including only one in the Vegas series. It was disappointing considering Nugent-Hopkins was coming off a 104-point campaign, Hyman had scored 83 points and Kane had scored 13 goals in 15 games during Edmonton’s 2022 playoff run. McDavid and Draisaitl will have stretches where they can singlehandedly win games, but they can’t be realistically counted on to do that every night. Draisaitl, for example, didn’t score in the final four games of the Golden Knights series.
If Edmonton draws Vegas in Round 1 again, it’ll need improved secondary scoring in addition to tighter defensive play and goaltending. The Oilers should be better positioned in that regard: Warren Foegele is having a terrific season (tied with Bo Horvat, Lucas Raymond and Adrian Kempe, among others, with 17 five-on-five goals), Hyman appeared to be playing hurt last playoffs, Corey Perry is a proven playoff performer and Adam Henrique could move the needle.
Four potential goalie dilemmas
There are a few teams with goalie deployment dilemmas in Round 1.
Ullmark and Swayman’s numbers are nearly identical for the season, although the former has been substantially hotter for Boston in the second half. Ullmark, therefore, seems more likely to earn the Game 1 nod, but the suspense is in seeing how long his leash will be. Last year, the Bruins didn’t give Swayman a chance until Game 7, which felt too late.
On Long Island, Sorokin’s status as the undisputed No. 1 is up in the air. His save percentage has slipped to a .906 since the All-Star break, and over the last three weeks, with the Islanders’ playoff fate on the line, the Islanders have shifted their goalie deployment. Since March 28, Semyon Varlamov has played seven games (.939 save percentage), whereas Sorokin has played only four (.932 save percentage). Varlamov’s best season of his career, in 2013-14 with the Avalanche, was with Patrick Roy as head coach, so there’s trust and familiarity between them. It’ll be interesting to track who starts in the series and how long of a leash they get.
Vegas’ first-round goalie usage will be fascinating, too. Thompson has significantly better numbers than Hill since the All-Star break, but the latter has the proven playoff performer stamp.
In Carolina, Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov are two quality options who’ve handled a relatively balanced workload lately. Andersen has been scorching hot since his return and will probably get the nod for the playoffs, but will the Canes rotate Kochetkov in to manage Andersen’s workload given the latter’s injury history?
(Top photo of Artemi Panarin: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
