Republicans feel the heat in Arizona as two candidates suffer ratings changes for their races

Two key races in Arizona have moved more to the left in the wake of the Arizona Supreme Court ruling that a strict 1864 abortion ban is enforceable in the state. 

The race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and former television news anchor Republican Kari Lake is now labeled “lean Democratic” when it was previously a “toss-up,” according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics ranking. They are looking to replace Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who won her seat in 2018 as a Democrat and is not seeking reelection.

“In Arizona’s open-seat Senate race, we now see the Democrats as a narrow favorite, so we’re pushing that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik wrote. “And we also view the swing district AZ-6, held by first-term Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R), as a truly 50-50 proposition, so we’re moving it from Leans Republican to Toss-up.”

In the first quarter of 2024, Gallego brought in $7.5 million, outraising Lake’s $3.6 million she acquired during the same time. She raised $1 million from a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser earlier this year.

Lake ran for governor of Arizona in 2022, when she lost to now-Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ). Lake has softened her abortion stance in the wake of the Arizona Supreme Court’s decision. She was previously stridently opposed to the procedure. 

“My personal belief is that all life matters. All life counts, and all life is precious, and I don’t believe in abortion,” Lake said during the gubernatorial debate in 2022. “I think the older law is going to take and is going to go into effect. That’s what I believe will happen.”

Now, she is critical of the court’s ruling, saying it was “out of step with Arizonans.”

“I won’t let Kari Lake distort the record,” Gallego said, calling the court’s decision “devastating.”

Arizona Democrats are looking to run on abortion with a ballot measure that would enshrine the right to an abortion into the state’s constitution. It is a strategy that has worked in other swing and Republican-leaning states such as Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio.

In the House, Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, which encompasses the southeastern portion of the state, including some suburbs of Tucson, has moved from “lean Republican” to a “toss-up.” Ciscomani has represented the district since 2022. 

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Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) has represented the Phoenix area for a decade in the House. His district is also labeled a toss-up, according to the nonpartisan CookPoliticalReport. He represents Arizona’s newly redrawn 1st District, which has voted increasingly blue over the years. In 2022, Schweikert narrowly maintained his seat by about 3,000 votes.

Democrats nationwide are targeting districts like Ciscomani and Schweikert’s in the 2024 general election. Arizona is still a toss-up for the presidential election, according to the Center for Politics. In 2020, Arizona voted for Joe Biden, the first Democrat to win the state since President Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996.