Three out of every four Democrats and Republicans surveyed in a new Maryland poll support their party’s presumptive nominee for president, underscoring a lack of enthusiasm for both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as they appear headed toward a rematch this November, according to the poll for The Baltimore Sun, the University of Baltimore and FOX45.
The poll reveals different levels of dissatisfaction — and varied potential impacts — on each side, said Steve Raabe, president of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the survey.
For Democrats, the apathy could mean lower turnout in the May 14 primary and, in turn, impact the outcome of other races, like the U.S. Senate election in Maryland that’s looking increasingly like a battleground, Raabe said. On the other side, the poll’s findings that a fifth of Maryland Republicans would vote for the other choice on their ballot, former candidate Nikki Haley, indicate Trump’s support in the state could have eroded further.
“Biden’s not going to lose Maryland no matter what,” Raabe said of the Democrat, who won by a whopping 33 percentage points here four years ago. “But that lack of enthusiasm could definitely impact other races.”
The question for anti-Trump Republicans who may be planning to cast a “protest vote” for Haley, meanwhile, is if they’ll come back to Trump in November — or look for someone else, like Biden or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whose supporters are seeking to get his name on the general election ballot, Raabe said.
“If that continues, it would be a significant problem for the Republican nominee,” he said, emphasizing that much could change between now and November.
The poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters and 451 likely Republican primary voters was conducted April 7-10. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 points for Democrats and 4.6 points for Republicans. A statewide sample of 1,292 likely general election voters had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.
The survey found 73% of Democrats said they would vote for Biden in the primary, 12% said they were uncommitted to any presidential candidate and 9% were undecided.
A similar 74% of Republicans said they would vote for Trump, 18% would pick Haley and 7% were undecided.
In a movement that has played a role in other states and reached Maryland, as well, some Democrats have campaigned for their party’s voters to pick “uncommitted” over Biden as a message to the president to back a total ceasefire in the war between Israel and Gaza. “Uncommitted to any Presidential Candidate” is a choice on Maryland’s Democratic primary ballot.
Primaries in Michigan and Minnesota, for instance, resulted in a few Democratic National Convention delegates being awarded to the cause after 13% and 19% of primary voters in those states, respectively, chose that option instead of Biden.
Maryland voters overwhelmingly support a ceasefire, the latest poll showed. The 57% who said they want an immediate ceasefire and 23% who want continued military action is in line with recent national polling.
But only a small portion of those polled — 2% — said world affairs, including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, were the most important issue for them in deciding who to vote for in Maryland’s open U.S. Senate race.
And a 12% “uncommitted” vote in the Democratic presidential primary, as indicated by the poll, would be on par with the last two Democratic presidents running for reelection. Both in 2012, when Barack Obama was on the ballot for the second time, and in 1996, when it was Bill Clinton, about 11% of Maryland Democrats chose “uncommitted.”
“There are protest votes in all primaries,” said John Willis, a former secretary of state under Democratic Gov. Parris Glendening and executive in residence at the University of Baltimore’s School of Public and International Affairs.
Biden’s “uncommitted” detractors would be much more significant if they represent around 20% of the primary returns — at which point it would also have a practical effect, Willis said. If more than 15% of voters in a congressional district pick “uncommitted,” it would be awarded a delegate to the Democratic National Convention. (Democrats Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips are also on the Maryland ballot, with each winning 3% of statewide Democratic voters polled.)
“I wish Mr. Biden was more forceful [in pushing for a ceasefire], but I do understand the political constraints,” said poll respondent Anne Ducastel, 55, a registered Democrat from Baltimore County who said she’s supporting the president.
Maryland, one of the most diverse states on the East Coast, has significant Jewish and Muslim populations compared to other states. Montgomery County, the state’s largest jurisdiction, ranks in the top 10 of counties nationwide for both the share of people who identify as Jewish (9%) and Muslim (3%), according to the Public Religion Research Institute, a nonprofit and nonpartisan research organization.
“Here in Maryland we have both sides of the issue,” Willis said.
Raabe, who has conducted polls for The Sun since 2007, said the level of support for a ceasefire should make elected officials “sit up and take note.” But he also stressed that the survey occurred before Iran’s attack last weekend on Israel. That “would potentially shift numbers like this fairly dramatically,” he said.
The Sun, FOX45, UB to host US Senate Democratic primary election forum Friday
The race to replace retiring Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin is likely the Maryland election to be the most directly impacted by national issues this year.
In the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. David Trone leads Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, 48% to 29%, according to the Sun/FOX45/UB poll. Former Gov. Larry Hogan, who is expected to win the Republican nomination, would beat Trone, 53% to 40%, and Alsobrooks, 54% to 36%, if those hypothetical matchups were held now, the poll found.
Hogan backed Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, and has been a frequent critic of Trump.
That won’t make a difference for voters like Crystal Kennell, a 40-year-old delivery driver from Pasadena who responded to the poll and said in an interview she’s voting Republican up and down the ballot this year.
“I can’t wait until Trump gets back into office. We need him,” said Kennell, who liked Hogan while he was governor, but is more enthusiastic about Trump because she believes he will work to lower inflation and stop U.S. aid to Ukraine.
But the Republican bloc behind Haley shows there’s continued support for Hogan’s brand of politics, Willis said. What that ultimately means for Hogan in November is still unclear.
Trump’s criminal and civil trials, how the candidates conduct their campaigns, actions by the U.S. Supreme Court and any other number of wild cards could have a meaningful impact in the months ahead, he said.
Willis noted that Hogan has never appeared on a ballot with the former president, who will draw thousands of Trump-supporting voters to the polls who maybe have not voted for Hogan in the past.
“It’s a little bit of a conundrum for Hogan in the fall,” Willis said.
For Democrats, the lack of excitement about returning Biden to the White House could mean smaller turnout and thus fewer voters picking the party’s Senate nominee.
“The question for them is, will they just stay home?” Raabe said.
About this poll
Results are based on a statewide survey of 1,292 likely general election voters: 600 likely Democratic primary voters, 451 likely Republican primary voters, and 241 voters of any party affiliation who said they were likely to vote in the general election but not a primary. The poll was conducted April 7-10 by OpinionWorks of Annapolis. Voters were randomly selected from the Maryland State Board of Elections’ voter file and contacted by trained interviewers by phone (landline and cellular). Additional voters were interviewed online through voter file sampling and databases known as consumer panels. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for questions on which all voters were surveyed. It is 4.0 points for the Democratic primary voters, and 4.6 points for the sample of Republican primary voters.
