Box Office Projections Highlight Overdue Franchise Returns
The 2023 box office was marred by many strike delays and films suffering from franchise fatigue.
2024’s solution? Bring every other franchise back.
Projections gathered by Guggenheim Securities in March show 17 films that are expected to exceed $100 million domestically in their first four weeks, but there’s nary an original film between them.
The only film not based on existing IP is John Krasinski and Paramount’s “IF.” Due in May, “IF” is projected to match Krasinski’s last “Quiet Place” film in 2021 and outperform a prequel that bows a month later.
Beyond wholly original “IF,” film adaptations of Broadway musical “Wicked” and ABC’s 1980s series “The Fall Guy” at Universal are the only projects that don’t belong to existing film franchises. If neither matches its projection, Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” should pick up the slack.
The domestic projection of Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” is well above $300 million for its first four weeks. That would make it 2024’s box office champion, as Warner Bros.’ “Dune 2” is slowing down ahead of that threshold. “Deadpool” hasn’t been in theaters since 2018, while Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine took his intended final bow in 2017’s “Logan.”
Those two films, both rated R, were among the last of 20th Century’s hits when it was still a Fox studio, so the Marvel heroes can help give Disney a competitive edge with adults that will counterbalance December’s “Mufasa,” a prequel to 2019’s live-action remake of “The Lion King.”
That’s a big deal for Disney, as 2024 will also see DC and Warner Bros.’ sequel to 2019’s R-rated “Joker,” which earned $1 billion worldwide. Said to be more of a “jukebox musical” this time around, “Joker: Folie à Deux” is projected to be one of the top performers of the year.
Warners is especially focused on sequels this year, earning another hit with “Godzilla x Kong,” which opened to $80 million domestically last weekend after “Dune 2” dominated March. “Furiosa,” a follow-up to 2015’s “Mad Max: Fury Road,” is due in May after Disney delivers another “Planet of the Apes” entry. Then Warners is offering nostalgia bait in December with a sequel to 1988’s “Beetlejuice.”
A co-production with Warners, Universal’s “Twisters” is a sequel to its 1996 originator, while Paramount’s “Gladiator 2” sees Ridley Scott return to the world of his historical epic that bowed in 2000. Even Garfield is getting another go in theaters in May through Sony’s "The Garfield Movie," the first of that IP since two films in 2004 and 2006.
Even if franchise fatigue hit hard last year, it appears the drawing board for the studios is simply whatever was put on ice while they maxed out value for other IP.
