Ukraine-Russia war latest: Macron explains at what point he'd send troops to Ukraine; children injured in guided bomb attack

That's it from our live coverage for today - thanks for following along. 

Before we go, here is a quick reminder of today's updates: 

• French President Emmanuel Macron said he would consider sending troops to Ukraine if Russian troops broke through the frontline
• Ukrainian workers picked through the ruins of a postal depot destroyed in a Russian attack yesterday, which set off a large fire
• At least six children and an adult were injured in a Russian guided bomb attack in Kharkiv 
• Sweden saw a surge in cyber attacks as it moved towards NATO membership, analysis found
• Russia said it had seized control of the village of Berdychi in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukraine war is unlikely to end anytime soon, the top US intelligence official has predicted. 

Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, said that Vladimir Putin sees domestic and international developments going in his favour, making it likely he will press on with actions in Ukraine. 

"Putin's increasingly aggressive tactics against Ukraine, such as strikes on Ukraine's electricity infrastructure, are intended to impress Ukraine that continuing to fight will only increase the damage to Ukraine and offer no plausible path to victory," she said.

"These aggressive tactics are likely to continue and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon."

It comes as the White House said it remains "deeply concerned" that it is not seeing China make any changes with helping Russia's military - after concerns raised by US secretary of state Antony Blinken.

During a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and senior Chinese officials last week, Mr Blinken said: "Fuelling Russia's defence industrial base not only threatens Ukrainian security, it threatens European security.

"Russia would struggle to sustain its assault on Ukraine without China's support."

Mr Blinken did not elaborate on how the US would address the matter if China continues to help Russia, but today White House spokesperson John Kirby said imposing further sanctions on Russia and North Korea is not off the table.

Sweden's succession to NATO prompted a surge in Russia-linked cyber attacks that not only targeted the Swedish nation but also other countries including the US and Ukraine, according to new analysis.

NetScout says it observed a "massive shift" in distributed-denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks as Sweden worked towards joining the alliance after over two centuries of neutrality.

Note: DDoS refers to when attackers flood a server or network with excessive traffic that it is unable to process fast enough.

NetScout says Swedish government infrastructure was targeted in such an attack in May 2023, with the attacks "strengthening" throughout last year and into 2024 as the country achieved NATO succession after a nearly two-year wait, the firm said. 

There was an "onslaught" in February when Sweden's foreign minister hinted at Hungary dropping its objection to Stockholm becoming part of NATO, it said.

Attacks peaked on 4 March this year, three days before Sweden officially joined the alliance, with 2,275 recorded in a single day.

An investigation by NetScout found that the "likely culprits" of the DDoS attacks were Russia-supporting cyber groups which it described as "politically motivated".

Russia-linked groups have been behind a number of cyber attacks since the war began. One of the most dramatic saw services provided by Ukraine's biggest telecoms operator knocked out for days for some 24 million users.

At least six children and one adult have been injured after Russian guided bombs hit Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region.

The bombs struck civilian infrastructure and private houses, injuring at least six children and one adult, local officials said.

Houses and civilian infrastructure in the town of Derhachi - a frequent site of Russian aerial strikes - was damaged due to the strike.

"Two of the children received minor injuries to their limbs, and four - moderate injuries," regional governor Oleh Synehubov said on Telegram.

Kharkiv, which lies about 30km from the border with Russia, and the surrounding region have long been targeted by Russian attacks but the strikes have become more intense in recent months, hitting civilian and energy infrastructure.

Moscow denies deliberately targeting civilians.

Ukrainian troops on the frontline have said ammunition shortages mean it is a "luxury" if they shoot 30 shells a day.

A commander manning a US-supplied M777 howitzer artillery gun close to Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region said the number of shells fired daily was sometimes in single digits.

Parts of the Ukrainian military are swiftly running out of ammunition or simply do not have the shells they need to suppress Russian attacks that have recently ramped up, particularly in the east.

"If we compare it with the beginning [of the full-scale invasion], when we fired up to 100 shells a day, then now, when we fire 30 shells it's a luxury," commander Oleksandr Kozachenko said.

Russian attacks 'unpredictable'

Ukrainian officials believe that Moscow wants to seize the eastern city of Chasiv Yar by 9 May, when the Russians celebrate Victory Day.

If they succeed, it would place some of the largest Ukrainian-held cities in the Donetsk region within artillery range, according to military analysts from Black Bird Group - a group of volunteers in Finland.

Troops describe Russian attacks in the region as steady but often unpredictable.

Mr Kozachenko and his unit are now waiting for a fresh influx of ammunition from the US aid package that was approved last week.

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he would consider sending troops to Ukraine if Russian troops broke through the frontline.

The president said it would also be a possibility if Ukraine turned to the French government for help - but stressed that currently there is no consensus between Ukraine and France on this issue.

Speaking to The Economist, Mr Macron said: "I have a clear strategic goal: Russia cannot win in Ukraine. If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe."

He called Russia "a threat to the security of Europeans" and France would have to "in any case" ask itself the question of sending its troops if they went ahead with a further offensive.

It is the second time Mr Macron discussed sending troops to Ukraine after saying "we cannot exclude anything," in a meeting of Kyiv's partner countries back in February.

It's been around a year since Ukraine was in final preparations for its much-touted spring counteroffensive against Russia.

The aim was to breach Russian lines and recapture large swathes of occupied territory. But despite a surge in military support from the West, the counteroffensive did not live up to expectations and Ukraine failed to push back Russian forces. 

Our military analyst, Sean Bell, says Ukraine has provided an "incredibly robust defence" since then, but a long delay by US Congress in passing a multi-billion dollar aid package for Kyiv has "taken its toll".

"Ukraine has lost ground on the frontline and Russia has momentum, which has impacted Ukrainian morale and cost lives," he explains.

So will the US decision to provide $60bn of military aid turn the tide in Ukraine's favour? This is among the topics discussed by Bell in this week's Red Matrix podcast.

Russia could make advances this summer

Momentum is vital in warfare, Bell says, and Russia has plenty of this after capitalising on Ukraine's much-publicised shortage of weapons to target its energy infrastructure, cities and the frontline.

Despite heavy Russian casualties, Bell says Vladimir Putin will want to seize the window of opportunity to inflict more losses on Ukraine "before US military aid can be brought to bear".  

"Many military analysts believe that Russian advances in key sectors of the frontline look likely to be repeated this summer as there is increasing evidence that Russia is preparing for a large-scale summer offensive," he says.

Putin's long game

Mr Putin is preparing for a long war which will eventually see Western support for Ukraine wane, Bell says.

"Russia has more soldiers, has tripled the size of its defence industrial base to create a sustainable supply of weapons... and can fund the war through huge and sustainable oil revenues," he explains.

Ukraine, meanwhile, is "critically dependent" on Western aid. 

Despite the contrast in military might, Bell doesn't anticipate a strategic Russian breakthrough - with Moscow's battlefield success "not a foregone conclusion".

He points to recent comments from Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said Western allies can defend Ukraine in the same way they defended Israel from a recent Iranian attack.

"Why not afford Ukraine the same level of support?" says Bell.

Western hesitation emboldens Putin

The West "has the military might to stop Russia's invasion in its tracks", says Bell, but has so far been deterred by escalating Russian rhetoric.

But longer it "tolerates" Russia's actions, the more emboldened Mr Putin will become, making him a "more dangerous threat to the West in the coming years", he adds.

Regardless of the US's huge military aid package for Ukraine, Mr Zelenskyy and his forces look to be in for a "very difficult spring and summer", Bell says.

This weekend (Sunday 5 May) Ukrainians will celebrate Easter.

As part of the religious holiday Easter cakes will be sent to troops on the frontline. 

Some Ukrainian soldiers attended a church service in Kyiv where all the cakes were blessed by clergymen before being sent to those fighting.  

More than 900 packages worth almost 3m hryvnias (£60,000) were destroyed in a Russian missile strike on a postal depot last night. 

Earlier we reported that 14 people had been injured after the strike in the city of Odesa.

Regional governor Oleh Kiper said a large fire had also broken out as a result. 

In a post on Facebook, the postal company said there were a total of 904 packages waiting to be delivered in the warehouse that was destroyed. 

"Not only our depot and branch was destroyed by the Russian rocket, but also 15.5 tons of your orders from online stores with clothing, appliances, kids toys, treats for pets, medicines, parcels with care for family members," it wrote. 

It said it had started to call affected customers who will receive a full refund. 

Russia used more than 300 missiles, around 300 Shahed-type drones and over 3,200 guided bombs to attack Ukraine in April, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Writing on the Telegram messaging app, Mr Zelenskyy said cities and communities around the country "suffer every day and every night from this deliberate and vile terror".

He added that only the "force of Ukraine's air defences, the force of the soldiers who hold the frontline and the force of the unity of the world" can stop Russian aggression. 

Mr Zelenskyy has continually asked allies for more air defence systems to protect against Russian strikes - especially Patriot air defence launch systems or the French SAMP/T system. 

Both the US and Germany have agreed to send Patriot defence systems, which White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at the start of the week should reach the frontlines "soon".