Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) has a healthy lead over both of his most likely Republican opponents in this November’s New Jersey Senate election – but that lead shrinks if incumbent Senator Bob Menendez chooses to run as an independent, according to a poll released this morning by Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU).
Kim, who is the heavy frontrunner for the Democratic Senate nomination this June, posts a 49%-39% lead over Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner and a 47%-38% lead over developer Curtis Bashaw. While those leads are smaller than some previous Democratic statewide margins, they’re still comfortable enough victories for Kim, a three-term South Jersey congressman.
If Menendez is added to the mix, however, things could get closer. In a matchup with Serrano Glassner, Kim leads 45%-39% with Menendez taking 7%; if Bashaw is the Republican nominee, Kim is up 44%-38% while Menendez takes 6%.
“Right now, this race isn’t close enough for Menendez to serve as a spoiler,” Dan Cassino, the director of the FDU poll, said in a release accompanying the poll. “But if he’s on the ballot, the race gets a lot more interesting.”
Menendez is currently under indictment on federal bribery charges, an indictment which has tanked his reputation among New Jersey voters and left him with few allies in either party. But while he’s not competing in the Democratic primary this year, he has left the door open to running as an independent if he’s exonerated in court.
The FDU poll finds that he could retain some loyal voters’ support if he does – particularly voters of color. Just 4% of white voters say they’d support Menendez as an independent candidate, but he gets support from 14% of Black voters, 12% of Asian voters, and 10% of Hispanic voters.
“Despite all of his legal problems, Menendez still has a base, and if he’s on the ballot, that base is going to come out for him,” Cassino said. “He’s not going to win, but he might be able to make things uncomfortable for Democrats.”
The poll does not mention a number of other candidates who are also running in the June Senate primary: Democrats Patricia Campos-Medina and Larry Hamm, and Republicans Albert Harshaw and Justin Murphy.
The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll was conducted from April 1-8 with a sample size of 809 registered New Jersey voters and a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.