Will Macklin Celebrini become a member of the San Jose Sharks?
Barring something unexpected, there’s a 25.5 percent chance.
The Sharks have been mired in 32nd place in the NHL’s overall standings for the last three-plus weeks and unless they suddenly get hot, that’s where they will finish, too. If that’s the case, they will have a 25.5 percent chance of winning the draft lottery.
The Sharks, with 44 points, have now won twice in their last 14 games and going into Tuesday’s date with the Calgary Flames, are seven points back of the Chicago Blackhawks for 31st place with five games left to play.
The Sharks could ‘clinch’ 32nd place by next week if they lose to the Flames in regulation time and the Blackhawks beat St. Louis on Wednesday.
But even if the Blackhawks do not earn another point, the Sharks would need to win no less than three of their final five games and go to overtime in at least two others to pass Chicago. That’s because the Blackhawks own the first tie-breaker, regulation wins, with 17 compared to the Sharks’ 13. The second tie-breaker is also owned by Chicago, with 21 regulation or overtime wins to San Jose’s 17.
Celebrini, a former Jr. Shark, led Boston University into the NCAA Frozen Four with a combined five points in wins over the Rochester Institute of Technology and Minnesota in last week’s regionals. The centerman has 64 points in 37 games for a 1.73 points per game average, second-best in Division I behind the Sharks’ top prospect, Boston College’s Will Smith (1.77).
BU plays Denver in the national semifinals on April 11. The other semifinal has Boston College facing Michigan. The title game is on April 13.
Here’s how things look for the NHL’s bottom three teams with two weeks left.
30. Anaheim Ducks (25-48-5, 55 points, 4 games remaining)
Home (2): Los Angeles, Calgary
Road (2): Los Angeles, Vegas
Remaining opponents’ points percentage: .574 (13th-hardest in NHL, per Tankathon.com)
Outlook: The Ducks are inching toward finishing in 30th place overall after their overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues tonight. They cannot catch Columbus for 29th, and are now four points ahead of the 31st place Blackhawks, who have five games left.
It is still possible for the Ducks to fall to 31st place behind the Blackhawks, who have one game in hand on Anaheim. But Chicago’s remaining schedule is tough.
The 31st-place team has a 13.5 percent chance of winning the lottery, and the 30th-place team has an 11.5 percent chance.
31. Chicago Blackhawks (23-49-5, 51 points, 5 GR)
Home (3): Nashville, Carolina
Road (3): St. Louis, Vegas, Los Angeles
Remaining opponents’ points percentage: .609 (sixth-hardest in NHL)
Outlook: The Blackhawks are (gasp!) 8-7-0 since March 5. That’s allowed Chicago to go from two points behind the Sharks to seven points ahead in about four weeks.
The Blackhawks’ five games come against teams with an above .500 points percentage. Four of those games are against teams now in a playoff spot. Chicago, though, is not a pushover at home with a 16-19-4 record.
32. San Jose Sharks (18-51-8, 44 points, 5 GR)
Home (4): Calgary, Minnesota
Road (3): Seattle, Edmonton, Calgary
Remaining opponents’ points percentage: .531 (21st-hardest in NHL)
Outlook: What’s the old saying? If you’re going through hell, keep going? The Sharks have come this far, so what’s the harm in staying the course for less than two more weeks?
The Sharks do not have the toughest road ahead with their strength of schedule, but they do play five times in 10 days starting Tuesday.
The biggest thing about the Sharks finishing in last place is that they would draft no lower than third overall. And if you’ve played that draft lottery simulation game at tankathon.com enough times, you know that’s a real possibility.
While it would be somewhat disappointing to the Sharks and their fans, drafting second or third would allow the team to take a projected top-pair defenseman like the KHL’s Anton Silayev, or Michigan State’s Artyom Levshunov. Not a bad consolation prize.
After Sunday, the Sharks cannot catch Anaheim and will draft no lower than fourth overall. If the Sharks lose two more games in regulation time, they will not be able to catch Chicago and they will have the best odds to win the lottery.
