Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his two picks for the NBA Play-in game between the Bulls and Heat, plus the Kings versus Pelicans.
Bulls at Heat (-1.5): O/U 206.5
The Bulls and Heat meet for a chance to play a first-round series against the Boston Celtics that will likely end in five or fewer games.
Jimmy Butler is out for Miami, and yet, the Heat are still favored at home against the Chicago Bulls. Alex Caruso is also questionable, so the best defender for Chicago could miss, leaving both teams down an important player.
Miami did make the NBA Finals as an eighth seed, the first since 1999, but we cannot expect that to happen from either the Bulls or the Heat. Both these squads split the season series and played each other back-to-back games both meetings with one day of rest in between.
Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro will likely be the difference makers in this game and the reason I take Miami. Adebayo only played two of those meetings against Chicago and averaged 23.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 5.5 APG. Herro missed all four games against Chicago, so I like the chances both can find success in their larger workloads.
I played the Miami ML for -120 odds and would go out to -140. I cannot trust anyone outside of DeMar DeRozan and Coby White for Miami.
Pick: Heat ML (Risk 1.5u)
Kings at Pelicans (-1): O/U 210.5
The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson, while CJ McCollum is struggling in addition to Brandon Ingram on restricted minutes. There are not many positives for New Orleans and judging off Sacramento’s effort against Golden State, this is a Kings or pass spot.
New Orleans beat Sacramento in all five games with the lowest margin of victory being five points and four wins by double-digits.
This is the ultimate bounce-back and smackdown spot for the Kings to beat the Pelicans when it matters most with New Orleans nowhere near 100 percent.
I grabbed the Kings +1 at -110 odds and would go out to the ML at -125 odds. I sprinkled a few bucks on the Kings’ alternate spreads of -9.5 (+330) and longer for lunch money as this could be a blowout.
Pick: Kings ML (1u)
Season Record: 28-18 (60.8%) +12.16u
NBA Futures in my pocket
3u: Boston Celtics to win the Eastern Conference (-125)
Risk 2u: Clippers vs Mavericks Series Over 5.5 Games (-195)
Risk 2u: Cavaliers to win series vs Magic (-184)
1u: Cavaliers to win Game 1 vs Magic and series (-110)
1u: Nuggets -1.5 series spread vs Lakers (-140)
1u: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP (+300)
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