NEW ORLEANS — Friday night isn’t the first one-game elimination scenario between the Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans this season. Back in December, both teams advanced to the opening round of the NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament. Winner went to Las Vegas.
The Kings, at home, were slight favorites. They went up double-digits early. But then the Pelicans went on a tidal wave 28-5 run, bounced ahead comfortably and finished up a 127-117 win.
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That was the extra game between the two. The other four matchups went similarly. The Pelicans finished a dominant 5-0 against the Kings, winning by five, 10, 12, 33 and 36, generating one of the most statistically uneven team-against-team mismatch seasons in league history.
The two teams meet for a sixth time on Friday night in New Orleans. This one carries the highest stakes. Winner gets the eighth seed and a playoff series against the Thunder. Loser is eliminated. The Kings, because of the Zion Williamson absence, are slight favorites again. But they still have problems to solve to advance. Let’s take a look at four key questions.
How big is Zion’s absence?
Williamson crushed the Kings this season. He went 12 of 16 for 26 points in 29 minutes in the two teams’ first matchup, bulldozing through Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes repeatedly. Sacramento has no one to credibly defend him on an island.
That forced Kings coach Mike Brown to ramp up the attention and amount of early doubles sent Williamson’s way. He still remained productive — scoring 10, 25 and 31 his other three games — and, more crucially, opened up opportunities for his teammates. Williamson is a willing passer. He had 23 combined assists against the Kings. Fourteen of those 23 led to made 3s.
That was the largest Sacramento problem. The Pelicans torched them from 3 in the five games, making 45 percent on a high volume: 74 of 164 total, including 22 makes from deep in their last matchup.
Part of that is the Pelicans’ personnel. They were 38.4 percent from 3 this season, fourth-best among the 30 teams. Part of it was the Kings’ lack of length. Brown spent half the season demanding his team learn to close out tighter and with better technique. Opponents shot 38.7 percent from 3 against them. Only the Jazz gave up a better clip.
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But part of it was Williamson. He sprained his hamstring against the Los Angeles Lakers and is out Friday. Without him in the picture, Brown has had two days to craft a game plan that doesn’t include overloaded double-teams and extra help to slow one of the league’s unique talents. In a pick-your-poison world, the most potent poison is on the sideline.
That should allow Brown to hand-pick different defensive assignments. He can use Keon Ellis — coming off a five-steal, three-block game against the Golden State Warriors where he shouldered some of the Stephen Curry assignment — to track CJ McCollum. Earlier this month, McCollum made nine 3s against the Kings, part of a massive month of April that’s seen him average 28.3 points and make 51.3 percent of his 3s.
Most of McCollum’s 3s against the Kings were open. It’ll be Ellis’ job to limit those looks. Brown elevated Ellis into the starting lineup after the Kings lost Kevin Huerter and, since his arrival, they’ve become a top-10 defensive team. Brown compared his ability to navigate around screens to Neo’s movement in The Matrix.
What about Brandon Ingram?
The Kings faced a Pelicans team without Williamson once this season. New Orleans won by 33 points. They’re still loaded and dangerous. But that night included a tuned-up Brandon Ingram. He only scored 15 but sprayed around eight assists in 30 minutes, inviting the attention that was no longer tilted toward Williamson and then setting up teammates.
Ingram missed nearly a month with a knee injury. He’s only been back for two games, both against the Lakers, and didn’t look entirely right in either loss. He was ineffective enough that Pelicans coach Willie Green benched him down the stretch on Tuesday night, opting for better defensive options who have been in more of a rhythm lately. Even when Williamson left with a hamstring injury, Green kept Ingram on the sideline in crunchtime.
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That’ll be the balance facing New Orleans on Friday night. If Ingram is on the floor, it’ll likely be Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes and possibly Ellis sharing the assignment. If Ingram has it going early, Brown will be quick to shade help his direction, which could open up the game again for the Pelicans shooters.
But Ingram, it seems, has slowed the Pelicans offense a bit and hurt their defense since their return. Without him, they fly up and down the court and create havoc with all their lanky bench defenders, like Dyson Daniels and Naji Marshall and, in a smaller package, Jose Alvarado, who is an insane plus-53 in 73 minutes against the Kings this season. Brown said Alvarado “changed the game” after two separate losses.
So Green’s rotation choices could be tricky, depending on how Ingram looks.
What about the Kings rotation?
That’s a simpler answer. Without the injured Huerter and Malik Monk, Brown has tightened his rotation to eight players. He will start De’Aaron Fox, Ellis, Murray, Barnes and Sabonis. All five should see minutes in the 30s or 40s. His three current bench players: Davion Mitchell, Trey Lyles and Alex Len.
If Mitchell has it going, his minutes could tick up into the 20s, especially if he’s matching Alvarado’s energy. Lyles is a useful stretch option next to Sabonis or in place of him in a smaller unit. Len will only get a pair of cameos.
How does Fox handle Herb Jones?
Fox’s five games against the Pelicans: 21.2 points, 40.9 percent shooting, 24.3 percent from 3. He averaged 4.2 assists and 4.0 turnovers. This is probably the team and defense he struggled most against this season.
If that trend continues, it’s hard to imagine the Kings’ season lasting beyond Friday night. Without Monk and Huerter, they need Fox’s bulk scoring and they need it efficiently, a difficult task considering who will be shadowing him. Fox has had difficulty operating against Herb Jones all season.
Here is an isolation possession where Fox gets into the paint to his lefty floater, a staple. But Jones tracks it, redirects him and blocks it.
The Kings will use various avenues to get Jones off Fox, but even when he doesn’t have the direct assignment, he finds ways to be disruptive. He initially switches off of Fox on this possession, but still finds his way back to the perimeter to leap up and block an attempted Fox 3.
The Pelicans will shift the matchups at times. Alvarado will probably get a little stint to pick up full court and annoy. Daniels is also a young emerging perimeter defender with a ton of length. Using him on ball allows the Pelicans to have Jones stalk steals off the ball. Here he is coming to the weak side to poke away a steal from a driving Fox.
There are other highly impactful names that’ll dictate the result. Which young wing has a better night from 3: Trey Murphy or Keegan Murray? Which Lithuanian big gets the better of the other: Domantas Sabonis or Jonas Valančiūnas? Does Valančiūnas even stay on the floor or do the Pelicans go small?
But, if the game remains close deeper into the fourth quarter, it does feel like it’ll turn into Fox against Jones on the night’s crucial possessions to see whether the elite scorer or the elite defender can bring his team to the playoffs.
Required reading
Guillory: Without Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram again must carry Pelicans’ burden
(Top photo of Sabonis defending Ingram: Rocky Widner / NBAE via Getty Images)
