Turning blustier Tuesday afternoon, tracking late-week storm chances

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) - If winds haven’t picked up in your neighborhood, they soon will.

Your First Alert: Gusty winds develop as cooler air returns

The notable increase in wind gusts takes place by the afternoon, as a cold front slowly moves through the TV9 viewing area. Behind it, winds will shift from the southwest to a west-northwest or northwest direction and increase to gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range. Hold on to that steering wheel extra tight today, and secure any loose outdoor objects that could easily be blown around like lighter patio furniture and garbage cans.

Otherwise, we’re also tracking the potential for a little bit of shower activity. As cooler air begins to rush in behind the cold front, a few pop-up showers could develop as some very minor instability in the atmosphere builds. These would be quick-moving in any given location, though most will stay dry.

Temperatures will warm today the most in the central and south, where highs get into the upper 60s to around 70. In our northern zones, low to mid 60s are likely due to the cold front passing through those areas first. After reaching those highs early this afternoon, temperatures may slowly decline a bit later this afternoon into the evening.

Skies should turn generally clearer tonight, and winds will become lighter. This could allow some patchy areas of frost to develop again, especially in low-lying areas that are more favored for temperatures to turn especially cold. Lows will be in the mid to upper 30s.

A break, both from wind and precipitation chances

If you’ve been hoping for a day without the gusty winds, you only have to wait one more day. Wednesday looks like it will have significantly lighter winds than what we’ve been seeing so far this week, with speeds at most between 5 to 15 mph from the northeast. We’ll also have the potential for partly to mostly sunny skies. Despite that, temperatures will likely be held back in the upper 50s to low 60s with the influx of cool air.

Another chilly morning is likely on Thursday morning, with perhaps a few patchy areas of frost once again. We will be heading the opposite direction temperature-wise, though, with highs by the afternoon back into the 60s for most with a good amount of sunshine.

Your First Alert: Storms return, some strong to severe with heavy rainfall

After that break, showers and storms will once again become likely by the last few days of the week. That includes as soon as late Thursday night into Friday morning, with the initial surge of moisture causing some widespread storm activity. A stronger storm or two can’t be ruled out, but the threat for that likely holds off until the afternoon and evening.

As an area of low pressure passes through the state, we’ll find ourselves on the warm side of it where the potential for strong to severe storms can exist. As it stands, the placement of the storm system and its upper-level winds will be favorable for those types of storms in eastern Iowa. The biggest question mark here is whether the atmosphere will have a change to recharge after the morning activity. If it can, then some severe weather would be possible, with large hail, damaging wind, and a couple of tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center keeps much of the TV9 viewing area in their risk zone for Friday as a result of this chance.

The first area of low pressure pulls away to the northeast on Friday night into Saturday, giving us at least some break for the first part of the weekend. There will be a frontal boundary left behind around the region, though, and it appears that it may stretch across at least parts of eastern Iowa. New thunderstorm development could take place along this front by Saturday afternoon and evening, and we can’t rule out a strong to severe storm in this time frame. While the Storm Prediction Center hasn’t formally placed us in their severe risk area for that day, it’s another time period we’ll be watching very closely.

A second area of low pressure will develop on, and emerge from, the Great Plains on Sunday, tracking along a path that will be similar to the first one on Friday. This, again, places at least parts of the viewing area in that favored zone for strong to severe storms. Wind shear, which is the change of wind speeds and/or direction with increasing height in the atmosphere, and instability will be present. Timing of the storm system will be a factor to watch, which would limit the severe risk if its cold front moves through early enough in the day.

The Storm Prediction Center does include the eastern portions of the viewing area in its risk zone for Sunday. Timing on that round would again be afternoon and evening.

While confidence is pretty high on the chance for severe weather in the central United States somewhere, exact details on the position and extent of this threat may yet change in the coming days. Please stay with us on KCRG.com, KCRG-TV9, and the KCRG First Alert Weather app for more information on this potential as we get closer to it.

Heavy rainfall also looks like a relatively good bet with this system. Repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms could provide a widespread area of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with a few locally higher totals possible. While we’re still dealing with drought conditions, and this would overall be beneficial, we could see a couple of areas of flash flooding develop. This would be slightly more likely in urban areas.

A break again early next week

Drastically cooler conditions don’t look too likely early next week, but highs and lows may both turn a little cooler. Lows will be in the 40s to low 50s, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Clouds will be more common on Monday, with sunnier skies possible by Tuesday.

A slim chance for a shower or storm is present on Wednesday on the tail end of the 9-day forecast, though the confidence in this taking place is relatively low this far away.

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