It’s finally here.
For scouts, the NFL draft is the culmination of a year’s worth of work. For teams, it’s the best way to build a sustainable winner – provided the hit rate on picks is better than the miss rate. For fans, it’s three of the best days on the calendar. That’s true whether you’re a hardcore draft fanatic or just a casual observer.
The Buffalo Bills hold 10 picks in the seven-round draft, but just two of those are in the top 100 – No. 28 in the first round and No. 60 in the second round. General Manager Brandon Beane has a clear need to fill at wide receiver, and can use depth at safety, along the defensive line, at running back and along the offensive line.
How will he address all those needs? That mystery is what makes the draft so much fun. Here is The Buffalo News’ final projection on how the first round Thursday night will play out:
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1. Chicago Bears. Caleb Williams, QB, Southern California. There is no real intrigue here – it’s been clear for a while now that Williams is the Bears’ guy. Remember, this pick originally belonged to Carolina. The Panthers, really, really need Bryce Young to be good.
2. Washington Commanders. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU. The Commanders have done a nice job of masking their intentions here, but the buzz has been building that Daniels is their guy. He’s drawn comparisons to Lamar Jackson with his running ability.
3. New England Patriots. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. With Bill Belichick no longer around, it’s the perfect time for the Patriots to go into a true rebuild, and getting their hopeful quarterback of the future is a good way to kick that off.
4. Arizona Cardinals. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. They likely will get calls to trade down, but the Cardinals choose instead to stay put and take the prospect most believe to be the best in this year’s class. Harrison instantly becomes Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray’s new No. 1 target.
5. Minnesota Vikings (projected trade with Los Angeles Chargers). J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. The Vikings own two first-round picks, No. 11 and No. 23, and send them both to Los Angeles to move up for McCarthy.
6. New York Giants. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU. General Manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll need a quarterback, but in this scenario, they get jumped by the Vikings, so instead they fill another pressing need at No. 1 receiver. Nabers is an elite talent who in most years would be the top receiver available.
7. Tennessee Titans. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. Next to Williams going to Chicago, this might be the most popular mock selection – for good reason. The Titans’ biggest need is offensive line help, and Alt would be an immediate starter.
8. Atlanta Falcons. Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama. Keep an eye on this spot for a potential trade out. Atlanta is in a good spot needing an edge rusher, as the first seven picks of the draft in this mock all play offense.
9. Chicago Bears. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. Adding Odunze to the mix with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen at wide receiver gives Williams an excellent trio to throw to as a rookie.
10. New York Jets. Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State. He can play either tackle spot, and the Jets desperately need help up front.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with Minnesota). Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State. Quarterbacks and wide receivers get all the attention, but offensive tackle might end up dominating the first round. As many as eight could go Thursday night, and new Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh isn’t going to want to miss the run on a need position.
12. Denver Broncos. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. Denver really needs a quarterback and could be persuaded to trade down since it doesn’t have a second-round pick, but Bowers lasting until this point might be too good for Sean Payton to pass up.
13. Las Vegas Raiders. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo. The Raiders have been connected to Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throughout the draft process, so he’s an option here, even if most evaluations having him ranked as a second-round prospect. If the Raiders decide to wait on a quarterback, Mitchell would slot into their secondary nicely.
14. New Orleans Saints. Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington. He played tackle in college, but there is some belief that Fautanu will be better off on the interior of the line at the next level. The Saints can make that call for themselves because they need help pretty much across the offensive line.
15. Indianapolis Colts. Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA. Plenty of scouting reports draw the conclusion Latu is the most polished edge rusher in the class. The big question is whether his neck injury will get clearance from NFL medical staffs. If he does, this should be right about where he lands.
16. Buffalo Bills (projected trade with Seattle). Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU. Beane said it himself – he’s his own worst enemy when it comes to patience on draft day. In four of his six years running the Bills’ draft, Beane has traded out of his original first-round pick, three times in a move up and once for wide receiver Stefon Diggs. He makes another move in this mock to get a receiver who might end up replacing Diggs. Thomas has the size, speed and production that makes him a perfect fit (on paper) for the Buffalo offense. He will need to expand the number of routes he runs in the NFL, but there is no reason to think he’s not capable of doing that. To move up, the Bills send No. 28, No. 60 in the second round, No. 160 in the fifth round and a 2025 second-round draft pick and they also get back No. 81 in the third round this year.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars. Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa. He lined up all over the secondary at Iowa and in 2022, brought three of his five interceptions back for touchdowns.
18. Cincinnati Bengals. Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. A wide receiver could be in play here, which is why it’s so important that the Bills moved up to No. 16. Cincinnati lost Jonah Williams in free agency, so adding to the offensive line in front of Joe Burrow should be a priority.
19. Los Angeles Rams. Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas. The Rams make a first-round pick for the first time since 2016. Murphy will be tasked with replacing Aaron Donald on the interior of the Los Angeles defensive line. Good luck with that.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers. Graham Barton, C, Duke. Barton started 34 games in college at left tackle, so he’s got the versatility to move anywhere on the offensive line.
21. Miami Dolphins. Johnny Newton, DT, Illinois. Losing Christian Wilkins on the interior of the defensive line is going to be a big blow for Miami. Newton can help soften that.
22. Philadelphia Eagles. Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson. Help in the secondary is a must for the Eagles, who got routinely torched in the passing game last year.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (projected trade with Minnesota). Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. After trading Keenan Allen and cutting Mike Williams, the Chargers need to get some new weapons for quarterback Justin Herbert.
24. Dallas Cowboys. J.C. Latham, OT, Alabama. It feels like Latham has slipped a bit in the pre-draft process, but he’d still be a nice addition for the Cowboys at this point.
25. Green Bay Packers. Jordan Morgan, OL, Arizona. The run on offensive linemen continues. Morgan could move inside at the next level.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State. His pro comparison on his NFL.com scouting report is Micah Parsons. That shows how intriguing Robinson is a prospect, but the production didn’t always match up with the potential in college.
27. Arizona Cardinals. Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State. The Cardinals benefit from an offense-heavy draft by filling their second-biggest need with one of the top edge rushers in the class. This would be a nice value pick here.
28. Seattle Seahawks (projected trade with Buffalo). Jackson Powers-Johnson, OL, Oregon. The Seahawks stay in the Pacific Northwest to get some help for the interior of their offensive line.
29. Detroit Lions. Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia. It feels like the Lions would be reaching for an edge rusher here. McConkey had some injury concerns last season, but if those are behind him, he looks like a prospect with a high floor.
30. Baltimore Ravens. Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma. Baltimore lost three starters along the offensive line this offseason, so they figure to be another team looking for help up front.
31. San Francisco 49ers. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama. The best name in the draft sneaks into the bottom of the first round.
32. Kansas City Chiefs. Xavier Legette, WR, South Carolina. The Chiefs could be staring at the possibility of losing Rashee Rice for multiple games because of a suspension, so getting another weapon for Patrick Mahomes takes on an added priority with this pick.