In a Manhattan courtroom Donald Trump is currently on trial in a hush-money case the prosecution says amounts to election fraud and collusion.
The main players are sordid. A porn star. A man already convicted of fraud and sexual abuse facing three more criminal trials. His felon lawyer. The publisher of a sleazy supermarket tab.
What’s the best outcome for the economy, your house, mortgage, retirement and Canada?
That Trump be convicted, go to jail and never again set foot in the Oval Office.
This is the unmistakable conclusion of a new, detailed analysis by Jean-François Perrault, senior v-p and chief economist at Scotiabank, and his colleague Rene Lalonde. Released Tuesday, it details a dystopian aftermath of the coming US election between Joe Biden and his predecessor. Polls show it’s currently a toss-up between the two fossils. The bankers say a victory by either guy would be unfortunate. But a win by Trump would be a disaster. Especially for Canada.
With The Donald in power, and pursuing his agenda of tariffs, an assault on China, and mass deportations of US non-citizens, the outlook for the American economy would be dark. For us, it could trigger a widespread collapse, as forecast by the bank.
Canada would slump into a recession with a drop of 3.6% in national GDP. That compares with the 5% hit we took in 2020 because of the pandemic. But this time contraction would come with a major spike in inflation and explosion in interest rates – also when the federal government’s debt has doubled and service charges ballooned. In other words, the cupboard is bare this time. No CERB coming.
The bank says inflation, now 2.9%, would jump by 1.7% and the Bank of Canada would be forced to raise its policy rate, now 5%, by 1.9%. The prime at the chartered banks, currently 7.2%, would be 9.1%. HELOCs would jump past 10%, as would business and consumer loans. Mortgages would rise beyond 7% and the stress test move towards 10%.
In this scenario – recession, lower economic activity, swollen inflation, surging rates and higher unemployment – our real estate market would do well not to collapse. If a crumble did happen, the implications would be widespread including higher personal taxation to compensate for gutted public revenues over the four years of a Trump presidency. House prices might not drift lower, but instead plunge in such a scenario. The impact on the majority of Canadians with the bulk of their net worth in real estate could be profound.
Is this just Trump-bashing hate and panic coming from the woke towers on Bay Street?
Says the bank’s report:
“A Trump victory and follow-through on the policy side would likely see higher inflation than what could be expected in a Biden victory. Were Trump to implement the more controversial elements of his platform, namely the imposition of tariffs on all U.S. imports and the effective launch of a trade war, and the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, we would also expect substantial economic impacts in the United States and its trading partners. In that eventuality, large reductions in economic activity could be expected in the countries most dependent on U.S. trade (i.e., Canada and Mexico).”
Biden would raise taxes, the report clarifies, while Trump would cut them – especially for corporations. But the major economic impact would come from the launching of a trade tirade by 45. Says the bank: “Trump’s proposed 10% across-the-board increase in tariffs, with a special 60% carve-out for China, would effectively be the launch of a trade war, with damaging impacts on the United States and the rest of the world.” The US economy would shrink by more than 2%, inflation swell fast and the Fed would have to add 2% to rates. In response, the stock market would likely tank, and the 401k retirement funds of millions of equity-holding Americans be crushed.
“Given Canada’s greater reliance on trade,” adds Perrault, “the imposition of tariffs on all exports to the United States would lead to even greater economic harm north of the border.”
Look at this chart of the impact on Canada. There is little chance the current price of homes and condos, or the value of the TSX, your portfolio or the government’s ability to keep shovelling money out the door, would survive a Trump presidency intact.
And it’s not just trade policy. The guy is igniting public passion and support by calling illegal migrants ‘animals’ and promising the expulsion of millions of souls. “The deportation of roughly 10 million illegal immigrant implies a gradual fall of around 3% of the U.S. labour supply,” says Scotia. “U.S. employment and real GDP would gradually fall by 3% permanently…The shock is negative for U.S. stock markets…”
Finally, this analysis does not factor in Putin and Ukraine, Gaza and Israel, “the potential for civil disruption (regardless of who wins)”, China’s current real estate crisis nor a deterioration in American finances in the wake of the election. But you should.
This report can be read here.
If you’re not rooting for the prosecution, you’re not paying attention.
About the picture: “Hi, Garth! Here’s our 7 year old Cavi, Molly,” write Leslie and Sam. “She’s a serious Alpha girl. We certainly know who’s boss!”
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214 comments ↓
Not a big fan of Trump, but the fact that the Democrats have weaponized the system to get rid of their political opponent feels disgusting.
Upon closer inspection, most of the charges against him seem completely made up.
He has been president before and it wasn’t the end of the world. In fact, US did pretty well back then.
Expulsion of illegal immigrants can be compensated by increasing the flow of legal ones. It has been very unfair that US bureaucracy is so tough on those trying to move legally, but very lax, even encouraging, to those trying to immigrate by committing a felony.
Will start believing this blog’s opinions about Trump more when there will be more objectivity.
Strange that Trump did none of these horrible things during his first term….as a matter of fact it was pretty darn good.
Me thinks Canada is sucking up too much of the Liberal cool aid.
So when would be the optimal time to move everything to cash?
Thanks Garth!
Oh my, such pearl-clutching in that report… I especially like… ‘it could trigger a widespread collapse’
:-)
I’m not rooting for prosecution and am indeed paying attention. Freedom of opinion is a beautiful thing. Plus, with unrest comes opportunity. Set the bait.
My guess? Things’ll be pretty much the same as always, regardless of the president outcome. While highly entertaining and great for clicks, the power of the office is greatly checked.
However… emotions do drive markets, so it’s always worthwhile to keep the hinges of the no-debt, diversified between countries, tax-efficient escape hatches well oiled.
Wow. One guy. Amazing.
This posting seems a 180 to the March 3, “President Trump”.
The Trump worshippers and apologists don’t care. They have already proven themselves impervious to logic. Anything to own the Dems/Libs/wokes.
Headline:
“Vote for Biden or face Apocalypse.”
Hmmmm. That sounds kinda like a lot of the Covid, War in Ukraine/ Truman Doctrine/ Domino Thoery, ‘Racist and Misogynist Truckers’, Hunter Biden Laptop and Nickelodeon are absolutely NOT pedos trope.
Trump is not the answer, but status quo is only great for boomers and GenX. Not so much for the rest of us. Denying the concerns of Generation Squeeze, if we ever get out of the basement and off our phones, is going to bring about a guy that makes Trump look like the grifting buffoon that he is… think an American Putin. Brilliant. Evil. Harnessing the deep well of anger that keeps brewing and brewing.
And we are expected to accept the status quo so the suspended snappers on Bay Street and the DEI fanatical civil service can stay on top. There is a solution but so long as the fair solution is pushed aside for what we have today, the extremism and a someday, terrible solution becomes more likely.
Justice should be blind. I’m not “rooting” for anyone, except a fair and impartial trial. My hope is that American voters ultimately get to decide, as that seems to me to be the least bad of all the potential outcomes. I fear a second term of Trump would be better than martyring him and having 50% of the electorate feeling like their guy is a political prisoner. To borrow a GF catchphrase, it won’t end well.
I digress. The real point of my comment: The momentum is building towards a higher for longer environment. Bonds continue to underperform, and will get whacked again if rates go up another 1-2% under a Trump presidency. As you mention, equities will also be whacked, both here and to the south. So we’re once again in a no-win situation when it comes to having negatively correlated assets. And another reason that diversifying your fixed income to include not just bond fund ETFs but also a mix of some GICs (I prefer 1 years myself) and actual government bonds (not the funds; things you can hold to maturity) makes sense to me. Bond funds have been about the worst thing you can hold for the past two years now. Two years of near catastrophic losses, and now a year where they’re down/sideways and paying inflation rate interest while stocks are roaring and money market funds and GICs are paying over 5%. I own bond ETFs; I always will and they’re a core part of my portfolio. But I’m sure glad I’ve diversified my fixed stuff over the past couple years. The days of 40% ZAG and forget will come back someday, but it’s not today. Call me when we have an economy that is not hyper sensitive to interest rates such that all asset prices, equities, bonds, and otherwise, are not simply a reflection of central bank rates and their anticipated direction. The covid enema (and perhaps, the 2008 enema) has not completely flushed the system yet. 12 years of artificially low rates, followed by two years of global pandemic and even lower rates, followed by high inflation and the fastest CB rate increases in history, and now what appears to be sticky inflation, a growing US economy, and a myriad of geopolitical threats…oh my! Anyone who thinks they know where this is going is kidding themselves. Thus, the answer is, as always, buy what you can afford, live quietly amongst the masses, and hold a liquid portfolio of globally diversified assets. And don’t forget “diversified” refers to your fixed portion, too.
If Canada was run with wisdom , and long term vision we would be near immune to the coming turmoil. Look at our potential, resource and energy rich with a well educated technically expert population; traditions of Peace Order and Good Government.
Instead it has been squandered by an out of touch ruling class, myopic in their vision and short sighted in their priorities, leaving Canada and Canadians vulnerable to turmoil we have no control of.
Look in the mirror Canada…you are culpable for blowing it and selling out your future generations. A silly silly post-national state of “peoplekind”.
I have been on this blog for some time now, and I have been emphatic in expressing my disdain for Trump and Trump Albertan Lite.
But this dystopian world we would wake up to if Trump wins is nothing short of mass hysteria.
The orange man is an idiot, but a genius at manipulating the media, and an expert swindler.
But with little substance the freak show will eventually close curtains.
2020-2030 the Lost Years of real estate in Kanada – a Former First World Country.
Look south.
“”The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday edition that in the 1980s, Canada had a strong economy with a standard of living of 90 to 95 per cent of that of our American cousins. Guest columnist Tom Czitron writes that Canada had a comparative standard of living without the high crime rates of America, with universal health care and an abundance of oil and gas. Fast-forward to 2024. The standard of living of Canadians is 25 to 40 per cent below that of Americans, based on a variety of data that include prices and purchasing power parities, gross domestic product per capita, average incomes, taxes, and costs of living. The average American pays slightly more in total taxes than the average Canadian but, based on median incomes, earns significantly more. This leaves Canadians over all with only between 50 to 60 per cent of the aftertax income of Americans. For the 10 years ended March 31, 2024, the total return of the S&P/TSX Composite Index was an annualized 8.13 per cent, compared with the S&P 500 at 14.64 per cent, in Canadian dollars. This is significant: $100,000 invested in the Canadian market would be worth $218,505. The same amount invested in the U.S. would grow to $392,068, or almost 80 per cent more.
© 2024 Canjex Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.””
So the experts at the bank are now blaming Trump for our economic malaise? I thought things were fine. Did Trump bid up our real estate or was it ‘we’ beavers. Deflecting from the banks lending easy money to everyone with a pulse. More gas lighting and deflection of blame from the experts.
Thank you for the continued blog.
The report was not about ”oour economic malaise’ but a potential scenario. How could you fail at this comprehension? – Garth
Thank you, Garth, for the dire reminder, it was needed. How Americans put up with a self-serving mouthpiece like Trump is beyond my thinking in any which way or form. I remember years ago when the Buffalo Radio stations were having a heyday in poking fun at Torontonians on how they could allow Rob Ford to remain in power in their city, Sure, Rob had a few issues he could worked on, but Rob was a Godsend in comparison to Trump, “keep in mind,” Trump is not running for Mayor, but rather for the whole of United States President, 350 million people give or take a dozen. The message here is, be careful of what one wishes for and how your laughable situation can turn on you a hundredfold, Rob would have made a great United States President, R.I.P my friend, you had the last laugh on a previous 4 years payback under Trump and now you may get another laughable 4 years and many more Canucks joining you watching the cookie crumble. Trump will spend more time paying back to the one he thinks hurt him, then he will spend time running the country, “pity before our eyes”.
Any Canadian with Property in the United States, your Sunshine may get very expensive if Trump gets his wish of being President again .
If you think Biden did us little favors as Canucks, Trump will cut Canada off at the line in the sand and it will be a very painful four years, feeling like it will never end.
For those of us who have lived through a few recessions already, we have not seen anything yet, if Trump makes it to the Whitehouse, unless he is barred from trying, it looks as if he will get there.
Quote of the day: Mary Trump was not all wrong.
A Trump presidency is best for Canada and the world. Unfortunately, the left-wing mobs have created fake news, have attacked free speech, have attacked open democracy, and have created the chaotic world we live in.
Go Trump Go! PLEASE SAVE US.
I love you Garth and all that you do, day in day out, but that report is an utter crock.
US GDP nearly 70% dependent on Consumer Spending; thus, a tax cut by Trump will bring their economy tumbling down?
Maybe on Planet Claire.
It will likely fuel inflation but it seems the US Fed willing to tackle that head on. Besides, their economy is not based on:
Canada. Real Estate Nation.
and thus bring on a recession there.
Now, Biden tax increases definitely will slow Consumer Spending and their economy.
As for protectionism well that may well hurt Canada. That whole report talks about Tariffs primarily. They may be correct on that. ‘Dunno but neither do they. Did not seem to hurt Canada the last time Trump was President.
And Trump has skin in the game in US Mr. Market. It is dubious that Trump is going to take actions that will hammer US Mr. Market.
Highly dubious, like that report.
The report has no sensitivity analyses on such powerful economic issues to Canada, e.g., worst case, most likely, best case. So they are just throwing the data out there as 1 scenario. Which one was it?
Amateurish. To say the least.
Nowhere did the report say Trump tax cuts would bring the eocnomy ‘tumbling down.’ The Biden tax hikes are not on cosumers, but corporations. The negative-GDP analysis (if you read the study) related to trade primarily and mass deportations secondarily. I am disappointed you call for a recssion and hardship in Canada. Must be safe to do so from Italy. – Garth
If Trump is elected the hospitals will fill up! The mental hospitals that is, due to TDS.
T2 has a solution for Old Stockers suffering from TDS.
No wait lists either.
— —
They found the Alberta Advantage?
Pay up for the Forever Issues: Climate/Migrants/Refugees/Corvid/War
The mysteries of Kanada. These thing JUST happen.
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/new-edmonton-shelter-to-open-for-growing-number-of-unhoused-refugees/ar-AA1nojVb
A new shelter opening this fall in west Edmonton will offer specialized services to a growing number of unhoused newcomers.
Hope Mission has seen a 700 per cent increase in visitors, refugees and newer immigrants they serve.
— —
We were to enjoy so much health :-( After years of government control.
“”Suicide rates are now the highest they have been in England for 25 years.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released the latest report of quarterly suicide death registrations in England for Quarter 4 (October to December) of 2023. Unfortunately, it shows a 6% rise, which is the highest national rate of suicides since 1999. There were 1,439 suicides registered in Quarter 4, equivalent to 11.4 suicide deaths per 100,000 people. Overall there were 5,579 suicides registered in England, which is significantly higher than 2021 and 2020.””
Mass deportation of illegal immigrants is no less a policy of the Democrats.
Jaguar has no skin in the Presidential game, and I dislike both Trump and Biden. Seems like Americans feel the same way. 270 electoral votes are needed to catch the brass ring, and RFK jr. is likely to play the ‘spoiler’, unless the Dems pull Biden offstage for somebody ‘waitin’ in the wings’ like Newsome, Michelle or Caitlin Clark.
Trump blew people’s minds in 2016 with all polls, pundits and other smarty pants types dead wrong. Why should economists be any different?
What’s changed since then? Not much. A divided America, anger about borders, two unpopular wars, and an inflation tiger still on the loose. Who’s the hardest working man in political show business and still standing? RFK Jr. I just hope it really isn’t 1968 all over again.
Think he can’t win? Just watch him….
Off Topic
Musk Magic?
————————
TSLA has tanked YTD, -41.5% in the last moment (why Sail Away has been suspiciously quiet about TSLA this year):
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ?hl=en&window=YTD
Low and behold, Musk states TSLA is rebranding as an AI outfit. TSLA today after that ditty from Musk, today:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ?hl=en
+2.5% last moment I checked.
Still waiting for Earnings. Hope they are good.
As for me, couldn’t care less as the ETF I own based on TSLA losing ground stock price wise (like TSLA) but the divs have been obscene. If it told you the div yield you would not believe me.
Many, many, call option buyers on TSLA. America loves to gamble. I get their gambling cash via divs.
What is there not to love about that?
So-Colonizer Canadians are NO different than Americans, have to be more polite with 1982 Charter watchdogs and tribunals…not so free to protect.
If Trump has 50% of the vote, that equates to over 80%
of the colonizer class voting for Trump!!?
US Constitution will not be replaced and will be a thorn in Garth view of the world to complete.
Hey Garth – I keep seeing comments about how Canada is energy rich etc if only the Libs weren’t shutting it all down. Yet, all the oil company stocks and pipelines I follow seem to be increasing production every year – seems they have long-inventory life, and are pumping out more oil every year. Maybe a post on what is really happening in the Canuck oil patch would be good – certainly Canadian rules make it difficult, but apparently our companies are managing very well? What do you think?
Must be safe to do so from Italy. – Garth
—————————
My money is in US Mr. Market and not Canada.
Unapologetic.
Of course, would not like to see hardship in Canada but let’s be honest the Gov spends money like crazy and the country seems set to be reliant on the one asset, Real Estate.
They voted for the Libs and debt slaved themselves with RE.
Not my idea of a winning strategy.
If RE tumbles, pretty sure the young will be happy. As for the those that used that as their retirement package, well, they should invested as well or instead.
Why the Highest Wealth Quintile so wealthy. Mostly investing, some RE. Diversified.
And, I do not think the Trump Armageddon scenario, only the one (amateurish), will come to fruition. It did not last Trump rampage, unlikely it will if he wins again.
And yes, I read the report. Amateurs with 1 scenario and we do not know which it is?
#1 Soviet Capitalist on 04.23.24 at 11:38 am
Not a big fan of Trump, but the fact that the Democrats have weaponized the system to get rid of their political opponent feels disgusting.
Upon closer inspection, most of the charges against him seem completely made up.
He has been president before and it wasn’t the end of the world. In fact, US did pretty well back then.
————————————
Democrats didn’t “weaponize” the System: Remember, Trump, and his supporters wanted to put Hillary in Jail without a trial. “Lock Her Up!”
Trump is sex offender and a, current a criminal defendant on multiple charges.
It’s that simple.
Be skeptical, learn to questions your beliefs on Trump.
This post is Deep State blasphemy, Turner. Take it down or face the consequences. We’ll put you in prison with at least two meals per week, guaranteed.
@#1 Soviet Capitalist :
“Upon closer inspection, most of the charges against him seem completely made up.”
What charges would they be? He’s already stood outside the court and told the media that he did everything he’s been accused of. Of course, probably going to take a different tact when its his lawyers talking in court.
What precisely do you think has been made up here? That he didnt do the dirty with an “actress”? That he didnt pay her off? That he didnt try to hide said payment as legal fees? (on the first day of trial he stood outside court and said he’d done all 3 of those things to the media).
“In response, the stock market would likely tank, and the 401k retirement funds of millions of equity-holding Americans be crushed.”
Trump won’t do anything that chills the stock market. He sees it’s as a report card for his performance and a measure of his business acumen so he’ll do whatever it takes to send it soaring and certainly won’t risk underperforming Biden.
However, USMCA will be up for renewal during his Presidency and that should worry Canadians. If Trump does win, better hope PP wins the next election because he’ll be looking to settle a score with Trudeau/Freeland and he’ll make the entire country pay to have the last word.
I don’t like either of the ‘Pepsi vs Coke’ choices that the pending US election offers. I do see scare tactics at play though. Truth is that Obama removed far more illegal aliens under his watch than Trump did. The optics were very different though. As were the styles of each. Best case scenario I think from here is a massive coronary or 2 at the highest level of US politics.
Blame Killary!
Scotia Bank is writing fiction now?
The US (and Canadian) electoral systems in a nutshell:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7NeRiNefO0
We heard all this in 2016. The moment Trump got in office, the economy boomed.
A vote for Trump is a vote for Sovereignty vs a vote for Biden is a vote for Globalism. Right now, sovereignty is a hot topic and gaining tailwinds worldwide.
The US FED has been trying to raise the neutral interest rate up, so that they would have their monetary policy tool of reducing rates, back in their backpocket. A vote for Trump is perfect for that. We NEED people to get back to acknowledging that 6-8% mortgages is normal. Especially in a country bringing in over a million new immigrants yearly.
None of that is within my control. Just like a freak meteor strike that wipes us all off the face of the earth. We’re not living in the US, can’t vote for a US president and neither can I run for US president.
Under the current circumstances, and what actually is within my control, what needs to be done in regards to the B&D portfolio?
“In a Manhattan courtroom Donald Trump is currently on trial in a hush-money case the prosecution says amounts to election fraud and collusion.”
According to the NY State Criminal Code:
https://ypdcrime.com/penal.law/felony_sentences.php
Falsifying Business records fall under Class E, non-violent Felony.
Punishment No Jail, Probation, 1 1/3 to 4 years
As Far As I Know, Trump has no Prior records, so not a repeated offender.
If found guilty by a juror of his peers, no jail time for theses charges For the espionage trial in Florida, that can serious time in the clink.
No, I am not a lawyer.
” If you’re not rooting for the prosecution, you’re not paying attention.”
================================
COMMENT:
Reading today’s post….the implication is support for Biden by default ???.
Ignoring Trump…Biden has gutted the US economy and its future. US cities are turning into 3rd world disasters as SJW ramp up their agendas.
Politics has degenerated into voting for the Least Worst.
The US economy is growing 3x faster than Canada with full employment. What is this ‘gut’ you have fabricated? – Garth
The Future’s So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades
they are already trying to blame trump for the terrible spot we are already in?
*sigh*
In reference to Comment #16 by Dolce Vita,
Tax hikes on the corporations along with regulations were passed onto the consumer.
That triggered cost inflation.
That triggered wage inflation.
That triggers a need for increased interest rates.
Tax and spend policies put us in this situation.
Besides, the US puts their unfunded liabilities and their promised increases to their public pension plans as current-year growth in their GDP prints. Lots of BS in that number.
“We took on debt so that Canadians didn’t have to”
“Interest rates are at historic lows, Glen”
“You’ll forgive me if I don’t think about monetary policy”
Three times we have elected a leader that has no basic understanding of economics and finance. To be fair, many have succumbed to the fever dream of the last 15 years that money can forever be free and asset prices can inflate 20% per year in perpetuity – all with no negative consequences to society. It would have been nice to have policymakers in place that possessed even an ounce of foresight.
#105 IHCTD9 on 04.19.24 at 11:28 pm
I think you’re wrong on enforcement. The courts don’t care if Canada is broke. Rulings were made and are final.
——-
Unfortunately, I’m not wrong. You can’t send the government to collections, and you can’t toss ‘em in jail if they don’t follow through. The Court judgements are recommendations at best, and totally, utterly unenforceable. I’m afraid that’s a fact.
I hate to say it, but after all this effort, I fear the rulings alone will have to suffice. No $$ will be forthcoming. It’s just not going to happen. The plaintiffs are few. No one cares. Votes are important.
Bro, it’s probably time to work this end into your expectations. The Courts can’t make government do anything. Judges are appointed by government. If the government of the day don’t care about the ruling, there is SFA anyone can do about it. That’s all there is to it.
——-
Could the fact that these line items are in the new federal budget communicate the intent that these rulings? That it will not be skirted and the government will pay?
Also, let us reduce this complicated issue to what it is – a tenant-landlord lease dispute. Wouldn’t refusing to pay the dues ruled upon by highest courts take Canada down an unfortunate road?
I’m thinking: Canadian government looking very much like hostile colonizer freeloaders not upholding written and signed agreements it itself demanded. Bad press and optics for Canada world wide. Potential even for landlord to change locks, throw the furniture out on the lawn or worse?
I hear what you’re saying about collecting from government. However, should that even seem necessary we’re talking about existential risk to Canada due to non-confidence. Government has to pay the dues and liabilities or confidence in it is lost. Is that what we want the leaders of this country to do? Reality is that there are contracts, agreements, obligations the government has committed to or was found liable for. Citizens of this country expect those to be upheld so that there is a Canada tomorrow. So that the country’s integrity is maintained.
This is not a savoury reality to learn about the ownership of the land of Canada and the cost of being upon it. But it is a reality we’re in and we’re witnessing the evasive tactics running out of can-kicking-down-the-road room. Hence, $165B allocated in current federal budget, and I expect an equal duplicate amount liability spread to provinces as most of these costs are split between the two. Welcome to the new budget reality.
Kinda makes $54B in debt costs this year-that we’re quite concerned about-look tame, doesn’t it?
How much of what Trump wants to do can be done through executive action? And how much needs the cooperation of the Senate and House?
I think that report basically provides a worst case scenario, which is something to think about as a potential risk. But also unlikely that all what was in the report comes to fruition fully. What is usually more useful, is a worst case / moderate case / best case forecast. People gravitate towards worst case scenarios because it triggers our fear response. However, the worst case rarely happens.
Things were pretty good under Trump.
I came to leave a comment on today’s swiftboating. It seems that may not be necessary, steerage section is already on it.
Usually a great blog! Will try it again tomorrow.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.” – Yeats
“Trump did not bring division. Division brought Trump. If you don’t see that, then you’re part of the problem.” – Ryan Fournier
I thought with Biden the US elite realized their mistakes which brought Trump. But alas wisdom and self-reflection is anathema to elites.
Instead close to ½ their population (or more) recognize the choice is between supporting a corrupted system or to potentially “burn it all down” with Trump.
Americans are a special people, a special divergence from the norms of human systems of rule, many do believe “We the People” is not just a facade to gain compliance.
The US elite had four years to recognize the legitimate grievance of ½ their population but instead choose to double down on division.
“Americans will always do the right thing, only after they have tried everything else.”
Biden is the worst thing that could have happened to the Western world but not many people dare not to write about that.
Think about this Garth!
-Hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians
-Tens of thousands of dead Palestinians
-Broken relationship with China and inability to mend it
-Nato falling apart
-Inability to ramp up industrial production for weapons (not that this would help Ukraine anyway)
-Amazing levels of corruption by the military-industrial complex claiming to be replenishing the US stocks of weapons sent to Ukraine and Israel
-Crazy financial crisis caused by unheard levels of debt and money printing (yes, they are printing money, hence the inflation)
-Western Europe suffering due to puppet governments in the hands of NATO generals
-Broken relationship with Saudi Arabia
and so on and so on…
you know I am right, and WE all know foreign policy analysis is not your strong suit but we all support you because you tell the truth about Canada.
Sincerely,
Igor
These is no economy in this place.
Just a low productivity cheap labour camp, sweatshop that capitalizes on the lower cost of labour.
With ultra expensive cost of housing and basic necessities
Even if someone were to pull the masks off the candidates to reveal Kang and Kodos, Americans would still vote one of them in.
I think there is one surefire way President Biden could ensure re-election and avoid a lot of grief for all of us: Give Trump a full and unconditional pardon. I’d give even odds that Trump would simply abandon his campaign if he knew that, win or lose, he got away with it all.
Even if he didn’t simply give up, the stakes for him personally (which is all he really cares about), would be so low that any upheaval would then be without his help.
Biden would mean we all have to buy unreliable electric vehicles which cost 60k, last only 10 years and take at least 30 minutes to charge. I prefer Trump’s nonsense to that electric nonsense!
If you have any desire to live in a society run by the rule of law, you need to be rooting AGAINST all of the corrupt democrat prosecutors and judges and the kangaroo courts they run.
The bank analysis doesn’t seem to include an extra 900,000 barrels/day of crude sales through the Keystone XL, which Biden cancelled and Trump will revive, nor the $100B’s of foreign investment into securing the supplies, as long as the Lib/NDP crew is turfed out.
Economy was great under Trump, including for Canada, and it will be again.
Law and Order will prevail, and you might be able to walk in the cities at night again?
Re Tariffs:
This is one idea that, according to some..if implemented early would have created a better future..but the horse has left the barn.
USA history in its early days was to garner tax revenue using tariffs, and not the plethora of current income tax, sales tax, gas tax, etc. etc.
In 1700’s, before the American Revolution, USA, as a colony of Britain ,was assessed a tax on tea,aka “tariff” but only select tea .The tax/tarrif was not onerous but was created to pay for a war debt incurred by Britain defending the US colony at the time.
This lead to a alleged “Revolution”…
Tarrif’s nowadays? as noted earlier..too late…and will simply be used for Political gain.
He will allow more pipelines. If he puts tariffs on stuff made in Ontario I can live with that!
Trump?
300+ comments.
LETS GO, BIGLY!
Imagine going against Trump who has all these charges and convictions…..and it is still a toss up between he and Biden.
That may also tell us all we need to know about Democratic (Liberal) policy.
Drill baby, drill.
I for one support the the policies of Kodos! Plus he (it) has nice hair.
Canadian dollar could sink to 50 cents decade from now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpU8n-xQ3qI&t=33s
I have moved most of my stuff (except some CNQ) out of anything tied to Canadian Dollar.
#45 Dog worshiper on 04.22.24 at 5:28 pm
Why do Westerners never talk about the emissions and environmental impact from destroying and displacing native fauna and replacing it with an inbred, genetically impaired species of canines.
Has anyone considered how many factories and millions of tons of dead animal protein are needed to feed this population of pet dogs?
There are 7.9 million dogs in Canada. And 8.5 million cats. Let’s start there. – Garth
—
Instead of pointing fingers, let’s agree to agree that pet ownership by humans is a sick fetish that is very environmentally unfriendly.
New Zealand study that claims a medium-size dog leaves a larger ecological footprint than an SUV.
https://phys.org/news/2009-11-dogs-larger-carbon-footprint-suv.html#google_vignette
I wonder if anyone in Ottawa or the provincial and territorial capitals are paying attention and planning for such a scenario with another Trump administration? I doubt it, they’re preoccupied with non issues like axe the tax or giving transgender people a hard time.
Trump supporters need their heads examined, proper fools.
Trump is ready to explode in Court.
His gag order is killing him.
The daily criticisms are beginning to grind.
Only a matter of time before we see a very “unpresidential” outburst.
Better than any fictional tv courtroom drama by a mile.
Wow, a couple of days ago we had a lot of really disgusting posts here.
And today, lots of people who support Trump.
I wonder if the two things are related?
Say what you want about Trump, here are the facts.
1. You WILL watch that Trump-Biden televised debate, and it will be one of the most watched TV events in this TV ear. M.A.S.H. final episode viewer record should be worried.
2. You WILL talk about the Trump-Biden debate for days after, maybe weeks. Some of us…months.
3. 50% of us want to see the Trump President sequel show in the United States, because it will be entertaining.
4. Every comedian alive is secretly praying for Trump to win – for the free material of course.
I’m hoping Trump wins in November. Not afraid at all of this outcome.
CNN, MSNBC, CBC, are all fearmongers.
Next will be Pierre in 2025 (or sooner if Singh stops propping up Trudeau.)
@53 Soviet Capitalist
How much more objectivity do you want? The man is an odious toad, a pathological liar, a sexual predator and a con man. He checks every conceivable box to be most accurately described as a total a**hole and a complete waste of carbon and oxygen. Kinda like Kanye West.
I hope Canadians are paying attention and telling everyone they know!!! Saw this today see link.
“Ten cents of every dollar of revenue the government brings in is now going straight to interest payments”
“There’s an old bit of wisdom courtesy of Ernest Hemingway that you go broke two ways: first gradually, then suddenly.
With last week’s federal budget, Canada is inching closer to the sudden phase of fiscal disaster.
The Canadian government projects another five years of deficit spending and over a hundred billion dollars added to our already crushing debt. Worst of all, there is no end in sight to government borrowing, and no plan in place to repay that money. It reminds you of the old German proverb: “He who is quick to borrow is slow to pay.”
“Much like personal loans or credit cards, the more debt the government racks up, the higher our federal interest payments get. The danger is that there will come a point where, far from paying off our debts, we will struggle just to make the interest payments on that debt.
A Fraser Institute report on government debt published earlier this year had this grim warning: “Rising government debt has severe consequences for Canadians as more and more resources are directed toward interest payments and away from programs that help families or improve Canada’s economic competitiveness.”…
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/frank-stronach-soaring-national-debt-will-hold-back-youth-for-years-to-come/ar-AA1nvlJQ?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=4b34b9299fa94e7bb4767d46ceaa1e51&ei=13
The presidential Debates will seal the fate, Trump is too clever, sharp and smart. Poor Biden will not be able to keep up.
Canada govt is always ready to print more money, there is always more.
#13 DON on 04.23.24 at 11:58 am
So the experts at the bank are now blaming Trump for our economic malaise? I thought things were fine. Did Trump bid up our real estate or was it ‘we’ beavers. Deflecting from the banks lending easy money to everyone with a pulse. More gas lighting and deflection of blame from the experts.
Thank you for the continued blog.
The report was not about ”oour economic malaise’ but a potential scenario. How could you fail at this comprehension? – Garth
*******
If we as a country were on a better financial footing we would care less about a Trump second term. We survived quite well under his first term. Is this a fear based political scenario.
Biden seems to get a pass. I would note vote for either of them.
I am going to make a road trip to Chicago. My gas guzzler will take me and my son with his new driver license there. Biden and his EVs can not make the trip!
Dumb question for the blog dogs here familiar with America’s housing market:
The US taxes capital gains on housing, correct? At what rate do they tax this? I’m trying to understand how that market stays liquid if every time a house is sold a portion of its value is hovered off in taxes.
For example, I buy a house for $300,000. Ten years later, it’s worth $400,000 and I want to move. So I sell, and pay x% cap gains on the $100k gain. Wouldn’t that incentivize me to stay put, since now I can’t simply trade one $400k house for another, as I have to pay a portion in taxes so now I’m left with <$400k to buy my next house? To me, it sounds like it locks people into their current home, as they won't be able to use the money to purchase an equivalent one if they sell. The best house they can without adding debt or capital to the next purchase is the one they already have in this case.
It's similar to what happens with large land-transfer taxes in some provinces, or realtor fees for that matter, but this would seem to be an even more extreme version.
The illuminati run by the U.S shadow government will make sure the voting booths are stuffed with fake ballots so uncle Joe ‘wins’ again.
I am no fan of Trump but this particular criminal prosecution is so much nonsense.
Is he guilty – sure. He falsified business records to conceal his payments to American Media, who in turn paid off numerous people with unflattering stories about Trump. American Media pretty much ran a war room for him in 2016 at the direction of Cohen.
Was it a federal campaign finance issue – probably. But the Feds have not taken action against him.
This is a Manhattan prosecutor’s flight of fancy and even if he makes his case, it will be appealed and it certainly doesn’t warrant jail time.
What are we learning?.. that Trump and the people in his orbit are sleazy. The best news is that the delusional Trump supporters are dwindling in numbers.
@#48 talk about delusional – why not tell us again about the “Biden crime family” or the “stolen election”.
I think this ScotiaBank report is worst case scenario.
The worst thing about a Trump victory would be the lack of leadership and all the Trump toadies trying to weaponize all facets of US government to try all of Trump’s petty grievances.
Compared to the other mob bosses, Trump is a creampuff.
His greatest sin? Derailing the endless war gravy train. Which is far and away the biggest and most profitable racket of them all.
Another prediction that is an opinion piece. Curious how many of these “expert” opinions are correct. I’d be shocked if its over 50%. More fear mongering from the media. Imo i won’t make a massive difference to Canada who the president is, maybe if it is Trump the BOC will actually do its job and keep rates at normal levels and get inflation down to 2% rather than helping out Freeland and saving over extended Canadians.
#11 Quintilian on 04.23.24 at 11:57 am
I have been on this blog for some time now, and I have been emphatic in expressing my disdain for Trump and Trump Albertan Lite.
But this dystopian world we would wake up to if Trump wins is nothing short of mass hysteria.
The orange man is an idiot, but a genius at manipulating the media, and an expert swindler.
But with little substance the freak show will eventually close curtains.
***********
You forgot…Trump is making Saturday Night Live obsolete. Bang on…he is a master manipulator with no apparent shame.
Trump is the only man who can save the planet from WW3, and usher in a new era of peace.
So I’m a little confused how a hillbilly living in the Smoky Mountains, raising Razorbacks, a few chickens, and selling Moonshine on the side, and voting for Trump will change his exciting lifestyle!!!
Beats me but there’s millions of hillbilly’s for sure!
Taking my son to LSD in Chicago! With my gas guzzler!
Reports like that shouldn’t be published, it’s all misinformation and disinformation. We all know what it was like under Trump and under Biden. The Trump years were much better before the virus.
I would love to see Trump in the states and Poilievre in Canada. Both will be an energy economy powerhouse. The second time around will be even better. I get excited just thinking about it.
TDS to the max!
DELETED
Have we not seen the fruits of democracy itself? We have indeed and yet too many are of the opinion that it must be upheld and given one more chance in spite of the corruption and evil that goes along with it. This is like doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. One of the definitions of insanity.
I think we need to do something outside of the democratic political spectrum that does not include oligarchy, capitalism, party politics or communism.
The battle of the geriatrics is hilarious and surreal… are you not entertained.
Biden was rambling on about cannibals eating his uncle in one of his more lucid moments while Orange Jesus, the narcissistic grifter, laments that Robert Lee is no longer in favour and he could have just negotiated an end to the civil war – hey what’s a few slaves between friends.
Disagreed. Trump started no wars and started to stem the flow of illegal immigrants. He was acquitted of impeachment. And (despite the shady mRNA issues) got the first “vaccines” to market in the world. He slammed Canada though. He tried to make peace with the worst nuclear threat on earth. What exactly is your complaint? It’s essentially baseless. And did you notice since Covid everyone else is also friend shoring from China? And you think crooked sleepy Joe is squeeky clean or something? The plebs ain’t buying the guff anymore. I didn’t know Garth was an MSM guy …
#66 T-Rev on 04.23.24 at 2:14 pm
Dumb question for the blog dogs here familiar with America’s housing market:
The US taxes capital gains on housing, correct? At what rate do they tax this? I’m trying to understand how that market stays liquid if every time a house is sold a portion of its value is hovered off in taxes.
———-
There’s a capital gains exemption for the first $250k of gain, or $500k per couple. This explains:
https://www.kiplinger.com/taxes/capital-gains-home-sale-exclusion
Oh no. Does this mean Scotiabank won’t continue to make obscene profits? Didn’t think so. LOL
That report should be in the garbage can where it belongs. DJT and sleepy Joe are equally corrupt.
Yeah but wouldn’t the reduction of economic activity help save the planet?
Garth, I disagree with you.
First, President Trump has never been convicted of any criminal offences. Criminal charges and civil judgments, but no convictions.
Second, the short-term Trump-driven financial pains you foresee would pale compared to the *permanent* societal losses another Biden term would soon bring. USA-hating regimes in Western Asia have been greatly enriched and empowered by Biden, will become even more empowered by Biden and will eventually destroy Israel, as repeatedly promised.
In her dying breath, Israel will unleash her “Samson Option” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option) and destroy much of Eurasia in the process. World financial markets will be destroyed, to say nothing of the loss of life and shock to civilization.
I won’t even delve into the mess in the South China Sea.
I’d rather take another four years of mean tweets, any day!
You don’t disagree with me because I didn’t write the report. Focus. – Garth
Some changes Trump wants to make as President
-He says he will look to replace Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, a man he appointed but now accuses of being too “political”.
-“Seal the border” and to carry out “the largest deportation operation” in US history. The Republican has also pledged to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented migrants and to wage war on Mexican drug cartels.
-He has called for the death penalty to be used on drug dealers.
-He told members of the National Rifle Association in February “no one will lay a finger on your firearms” if he returns to the White House.
-Has vowed to “drill, baby, drill” and unleash domestic energy production, in part to bring prices at the pump down.
Old school – so bring it … nevertheless neither Biden nor Trump will avert the unavoidable economic calamity to unfold.
Bill Maher must be pulling his hairplugs out.
Me…I’m going to buy a new blanket to pull over my head.
#83 Jim on 04.23.24 at 3:16
:):):):)
You’re not a capitalist, are you Jim?
Og
To all and anyone worried about Biden’s open border I have a proposition.
We will go down 15 miles into Mexico, you will give me your passport and drivers license, I will give you $25 in pesos.
You will start walking to the border, I will travel to an agreed upon spot in the US.
Once you arrive I’ll give you $50,000 and of course will cover all expenses.
What do you have to lose? Free trip to Mexico, a chance to stick it to the Libs by casually entering the US and you get to meet and spend time with me.
Sounds eerily similar to the stuff being pushed out of the machine the last time, just before he got elected.
Wow, reading all these pro-trump comments.. its amazing to see the detachment from reality and just overall lack of common sense and decency… and even more worrying that its coming from canadians. thankfully just a vocal minority hopefully. but a growing one.
@#36 Blob
“Wow, a couple of days ago we had a lot of really disgusting posts here.
And today, lots of people who support Trump.
I wonder if the two things are related?”
+++
Nah.
Purely coincidental.
“#11 Quintilian on 04.23.24 at 11:57 am
I have been on this blog for some time now, and I have been emphatic in expressing my disdain for Trump and Trump Albertan Lite.
But this dystopian world we would wake up to if Trump wins is nothing short of mass hysteria.
The orange man is an idiot, but a genius at manipulating the media, and an expert swindler.
But with little substance the freak show will eventually close curtains.”
Agreed. Well stated. I am not a fan of any of them but the hysteria is to drive fear in to people and fear motivates. Fear is everywhere even in advertising.
As a side note, there’s no way Trump would want the economy to tank just to get rid of illegals or whatever they’re pointing to as the cause in the report. His ego is way too big and his “legacy” far too important. Also worth noting he’s already had 4 years in office and none of this transpired.
The data is clear as day: a democrat in the White House is much better for the economy.
During the Trump presidency, it was shocking how biased the media was here in Canada. Not a single good word about the guy, even though nobody will have perfectly good or evil outcomes.
It proved that the media can not be trusted and I would not be surprised that they lie for the sole purpose of social engineering. If a lie keeps being repeated over and over, people will start to believe it.
I wish for another Trump presidency, but if he couldn’t beat Biden the first time, he has no hope this time.
None of this doom and gloom happened the first time around. If anything, Trump expedited the vaccine that saved this economy’s butt. Where’s the thanks?
If Europe has listened to Trump instead of laughing at him, NATO spending would have ramped and Ukraine war could have been averted.
Best president of my lifetime. Easily my favourite president out of all 46.
Economists and financial types should stay out of politics. They’re like the weather babes, still wrong at least half the time.
My funds performed wonderfully under Trump before, but have been mediocre under the Biden Handler Puppet regime.
I can support a new regime that’s Drill Baby Drill, instead of the current band of miscreants and border ignorant malfeasants.
The S&P has hit over 20 record highs this year. If your portfolio is anemic, it’s probably you, not the American president. – Garth
Hey, let’s be honest. The guy attracts attention. How many times have you heard ‘never before’ or ‘first time’ when talking about Trump?
Rules can be broken. It’s what will propel the the world further. Not just in an economic context, either.
I’m not a supporter of Trump’s tactics – anyone can be a bully – we need leaders that lead and
inspire hope and bring societies together if we’re going to prolong our time here….not fight.
So, choose your ‘side’ I guess. We’re just along for the ride.
Og
“If you are not rooting for the prosecution, you are not paying attention”.
Garth
That certainly tells us where your head is at Garth.
It summarizes the report. Duh. – Garth
As a social conservative, although I don’t think much of Trump, he is the better choice. My local economy is driven by American tourists. The ones I’ve chatted with say they will plug their nose and vote for Trump. I would do the same. I don’t agree with everything Poilievre either, but he will get my vote.
What I find most offensive, is a persons self-righteousness. Trump has a lot. But so does the left. So that aspect cancels out. What you are left with is policy.
As an American president, he should look out for Americans. As Canadians, we should focus on how we act rather than how Americans treat us.
I’m not rooting for the prosecution & I’m paying attention. Tie the down the hatches boys, I’ll be checking. Shes gonna blow hard. By the way, when the Trumpster starts deporting “like you’ve never seen”, their not going back to shitholeville. Their coming up here.
Jeeez, maybe I’ll have to drop the Garth off my 6 G portfolio. Back to the 5 G’s: God, Gold, Girl, Garden, & Gun.
So, what you’re saying is we can lower housing prices in Canada with a Trump presidency. For those just wanting to buy a house, whatever brings down the cost of buying is a good thing. How it impacts others, really doesn’t matter from a rational self actor perspective.
It matters if there’s a recession, mortgages cost 9% and you lost your job. Careful what you wish for. – Garth
Its not a tax increase….its “intergenerational fairness”.
https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/justin-trudeau-capital-gains-tax-changes
I’m sick of hearing about Trump already. We spent Trump’s first presidency living in a Central American country that only had US news, just give him 4 more years because I don’t want to see the outcome if he doesn’t win. Luckily he can only have 4 more years vs JT2, who can rule Canada forever.
All of this sounds like a movie script in which Mr T has already won. Nobody talks about Mr B any more…
Like it or not, question is how do we position a portfolio when Mr T does win?
Thank you
‘Molly’ has that ‘why do I have the stupid servants?’ look down pat:)
One could wish that the upcoming POTUS election had better candidates, but it is what it is. Trump has not hidden his plans to be vindictive if he gets a second term despite his legal woes. When it comes to the immigrant crackdown, don’t know if his wealthy backers will be on board if the expulsion of ‘cheap’ labor affects their bottom line.
As for Canada’s possible economic woes should Trump trample trade – say that 3 times – well, isn’t the precipitous drop in RE valuations the end goal of many who visit this blog? Because they then will be able to purchase at bargain prices, chortling about how smart they are? Worth the possible downturn in employment because of course ‘they’ won’t be the ones affected. Uhm, maybe not.
And truthfully, if someone owns RE in the first place & has no need or reason to sell in a downturn, isn’t the potential drop in value a nothing burger? Yes, the family balance sheet may suck as a result for a while but since RE is considered a financial asset, how is that any different than if one’s portfolio value drops due to market ructions beyond one’s control? Don’t sell in a storm, wait for recovery, right? Thus with RE.
Profit, revenue and automotive gross margin miss estimates. Inventory days on hand double.
Shares rally in extended trading.
Full Self Driving – that isn’t at all fully automated will be unleashed upon the masses with ride sharing? This is good?
Smaller cars with lower average selling prices, less margin and less margin dollars are coming. This is good?
@#81 Sail Away on 04.23.24 at 3:04 pm
Thanks Sail. That clarifies it.
Sounds lovely. And a Trump presidency seems certainly possible.
So…how do we prepare sir Garth?
I’m 55 and want to retire in the next 6 or so years. yikes.
If Canada’s economy is so dependent on who wins the next US election, we should really work on being more resilient.
When you look at the trade surplus with the US compared to the trade deficit with the rest of the world, it’s a disaster – and a sign of lazyness: let’s bet everything on our friends from the south border and hope everything will go well (until not)
Now we’re talking.
Good article.
Bush Sr. called him a blowhard.
Accurate description.
Changes his mind like the weather.
Lock him up, throw away the key.
Bring on the second coming of Reagan.
You think Reagan would have tolerated Putin going into Georgia in 2008?
He would threaten Putin to get out the next day or he’d blow up every bridge in Moscow.
Despots don’t run the world, America does.
Just think how much more independent and financially secure Canada would be right now if our short-sighted, non-strategic Liberal government would have built the LNG terminals and pipelines to tidewater that would have allowed Canada to support climate change abatement around the world through selling clean LNG to countries working to eliminate coal fired heating and energy.
Our greatest strength to avoid many of the issues in the opinion piece that Garth shares here is to take control and expand the thing that we are really good at – developing and exporting clean and responsible LNG fuels. Go Pierre!
Trump was president before, nothing bad happened, in fact it was pretty sweet. No wars, good economy, nothing the MSN forecasted came to be. This time it will be the same thing.
Not a fan of Trump. Like, at all.
But illegals are illegals. Since when the idea of sending them back home (and not letting them in the country in the first place) became a marginalized-right-wing thing?
Myself, legally immigrated to Canada long time ago. Mountains of paperwork. Years of preparation. Years of waiting. Tests, interviews, certifications, references. Why is anyone allowed to bypass this completely, and sneak through the back door?
#88 Ustabe on 04.23.24 at 3:43 pm
To all and anyone worried about Biden’s open border I have a proposition.
We will go down 15 miles into Mexico, you will give me your passport and drivers license, I will give you $25 in pesos.
You will start walking to the border, I will travel to an agreed upon spot in the US.
Once you arrive I’ll give you $50,000 and of course will cover all expenses.
———-
Oh, for sure. Other than putting up with hours and hours of pompous nonsense, that will be the easiest $50K ever.
I’ll probably beat you to the meetup
Ready when you are
I’m going back to my original moniker of Steve French.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-yysnW6QRo
What’s up with all this “settler colonial” business.
I ain’t no settler-colonial Canadian, I was born fair and square in Ontario. So was Pops. If I’m a settler-colonial then where’s my homeland? Back in the England where the ancestors came from?
It’s time we realise this is nativist blood-and-soil bulls**t that is actually dangerous.
Couldn’t settler-colonial language also be turned around to stop all immigration, and deport refugees? That would make the woke-ists head explode.
Already at Columbia University in NY there are pro-Hamas wackos calling Jewish-American students inveterate “settler-colonials” and telling them to go back to Poland or Russia.
WTF.
I’m a true blue Canadian and any one who calls me a settler-colonialist is going to get a knuckle sandwich. They can F right off.
I can’t get my head around that of the millions of citizens Trump and Uncle Joe are the best leaders (?) they can come up with….But..we are doomed if Biden trumps Trump..get it?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-17/white-house-renews-internal-talks-on-invoking-climate-emergency
White House Renews Internal Talks on Invoking Climate Emergency
Omg….what are those guys smoking??
No wonder establishment and mainstream are losing credibility.
Beyond ludicrous…..
Sorry Ponzie.
After reading this article.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/costofliving/skilled-trades-shortage-cost-of-living-1.7169441
Your bathroom bidet upgrade estimate …. just tripled in price…
:)
Sounds like there are a lot of people that could benefit from Trump. All the have nots…
The other guys get in… Youth can kiss their future goodbye. Homeowner grin gets larger.
Depends on how you look at it.
Dogman01 If Canada was run with wisdom , and long term vision we would be near immune to the coming turmoil. Look at our potential, resource and energy rich with a well educated technically expert population; traditions of Peace Order and Good Government.
Instead it has been squandered by an out of touch ruling class, myopic and short sighted, leaving Canada vulnerable to turmoil over which it has no control.
right
Scotia Bank should have written an article on the positives once Trudeau is booted from office and we have more productive relations with the USA.
last time i checked the economy was just peachy when Trump was in power and tariffs implemented…why would now be anything different? what a fear-mongering post this is. who paid scotiabank to write that garbage? CNN?
#83 Jim on 04.23.24 at 3:16 pm
Yeah but wouldn’t the reduction of economic activity help save the planet?
—————-
Good point.
Germany, the third largest economy based on GDP, is already de-industrializing.
Shut down the last nuclear reactors a while ago.
Maybe we should all re-evaluate what progress really means.
And how to measure it.
@#67 Ole Doberman on 04.23.24 at 2:17 pm
The illuminati run by the U.S shadow government will make sure the voting booths are stuffed with fake ballots so uncle Joe ‘wins’ again.
–
I know this comment is just satire but the majority of trump apologists actually are this delusional and deeply schizophrenic.
#54 Greta Fool on 04.23.24 at 1:47 pm
New Zealand study that claims a medium-size dog leaves a larger ecological footprint than an SUV.
https://phys.org/news/2009-11-dogs-larger-carbon-footprint-suv.html#google_vignette
/////////////////
and over a lifetime a pile of fertilizer as big as a SUV
Did the report take into account that Trump talks a big game but doesn’t actually do anything?
Alpha girl ? Seriously??
just listened to most of tsla earnings call.
crappy quarter but …wow these guys are not f-ing around. the ai spending/brain size is unparalled. they must be nvidia’s biggest customer.
the taxi and full self driving i doubted but it’s coming as sure as smart phones. the ai will accelerate it. they are going to have parked teslas running the worlds largest most powerful net ever. will be 10x safer than humans.
model 2 development is a go and being accelerated.
energy storage record profits and growing.
optimus moving ahead, one day tsla could easily stop making cars.
anything under 200 will be a 2-3x by 2026 or sooner.
anybody have the guts to be a buyer today?
I hate Trump.
Trump is a known liar. He won’t do 1/4 of what he says he’ll do. I doubt that it would be much different than last time.
If the trump cult has taught us anything, it’s never say never. Sometimes you have to wrestle a pig even though you’ll get it and the pig likes it…at first.
Full Moon Trump yes men/Greater Fools
Plenty!
He lost my trust to do or say the right thing with the crowd size at the inauguration lie.
All about the grift.
I’m not a fan of Trump (or Biden), but I don’t believe these fear pieces whatsoever.
Trump talks a lot, too much, and doesn’t actually follow through.
Additionally, no matter what polls suggest, Trump isn’t going to be president again. Not a chance.
” man already convicted of fraud and sexual abuse”
He was not convicted of sexual abuse. It was a defamation trial, and a rediculous one at that. Read the facts of it and tell me if you think it was a fair trial.
You can hate Trump all you want, but lying about the facts calls into question your bias on everything else you state about the guy.
He was found guilty of sexual abuse on May 9, 2023, in New York. – Garth
#125 Penny Henny on 04.23.24 at 6:31 pm
#54 Greta Fool on 04.23.24 at 1:47 pm
New Zealand study that claims a medium-size dog leaves a larger ecological footprint than an SUV.
https://phys.org/news/2009-11-dogs-larger-carbon-footprint-suv.html#google_vignette
/////////////////
and over a lifetime a pile of fertilizer as big as a SUV
*****
So,what’s your point? How much does a human leave over a lifetime?
All this from a bank genius that has delivered a spell binding stock return of minus 20.25% over the last 10 years. Mercy
#118 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.24 at 5:55 pm
Sorry Ponzie.
After reading this article.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/costofliving/skilled-trades-shortage-cost-of-living-1.7169441
Your bathroom bidet upgrade estimate …. just tripled in price…
:)
—————
Never been someone who judged people by their material possessions.
Not gonna start now.
It’s not how much you’re making.
Is how much you’re spending.
Biden kept the policy in place and ended up expelling five times more border-crossers than Trump did, Washington Post
New Data Show Migrants Were More Likely to Be Released by Trump Than Biden … According to data published last month, Cato Institute
From his first day in office, President Biden has called on Congress to act to address our broken immigration system. Over the past three years, while waiting for Congress to act, the Administration has taken important steps to secure our border, whitehouse.gov
By taking 535 immigration actions over its first three years, the Biden administration has already outpaced the 472 immigration-related executive actions undertaken in all four years of President Donald Trump’s term, migrationpolicy.org
Are you certain you want to take me up on that offer SailAway?
I am enjoying a comfortable retirement after a modest career. If I was a GenZ and my wooden spoon had just been handed to ‘undocumented’ immigrants I would be furious too.
Hush money, ie NDAs are not illegal, ask Bill Clinton. Trump is on trial for election crimes persecuted by a State DA, which is not lawful to do.
#115 Steve French [formerly the Sage of Steerage] on 04.23.24 at 5:40 pm
I’m a true blue Canadian and any one who calls me a settler-colonialist is going to get a knuckle sandwich. They can F right off.
—-
whatevs floats your boat
just know that you don’t own the land that makes up this legal entity called “Canada”
pay your rent and we’ll let you loiter around a while longer
Joseph R – the fact that some people are screaming ‘Lock her up’ is not a proof that Trump has weaponized anything.
blobby – my understanding is that the current accusation against Trump is that he falsified business documents. Sounds serious, but the story behind is that: he paid a lady who performed certain adult services so that she doesn’t bring it up during his campaign. The payment was done from his personal account. The DA claims this was a business transaction and should have been paid from his business account. Apparently, he claims this constitutes a falsification of business records. Was it immoral for Trump to use adult services? – Yes, but that is a personal thing. It’s for his wife and supporters to judge. However, DAs accusation seems like a huge stretch of imagination to me and a proof of the system weaponization. If this kind of staff is allowed to pass, then anyone can be accused of anything.
Another case was the accusation that he got some loans by misrepresenting the value of some RE. The information that I got was that the banks did due diligence and did not find anything wrong at the time with estimated values presented by Trump. All the loans were repaid in full and nobody had any losses. It was a fully legitimate business transaction in which all parties were happy. For some reasons, someone decided that the estimated values were not fully accurate and a judge instructed Trump to pay hundreds of millions in penalties. These kinds of accusations seem ridiculous to me and a proof the system has been weaponized against Trump.
#123 Ponzius Pilatus on 04.23.24 at 6:25 pm
#83 Jim on 04.23.24 at 3:16 pm
Yeah but wouldn’t the reduction of economic activity help save the planet?
—————-
Good point.
Germany, the third largest economy based on GDP, is already de-industrializing.
Shut down the last nuclear reactors a while ago.
Maybe we should all re-evaluate what progress really means.
And how to measure it.
—————–
burn more coal?
germany 26%
canada 7%
electricity from coal plants.
I quote Chris Hedges, a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist who was a foreign correspondent for fifteen years for The New York Times.
“Fear — fear of the return of Trump and Christian fascism — is the only card the Democrats have left to play. This will work in urban, liberal enclaves where college educated technocrats, part of the globalized knowledge economy, are busy scolding and demonizing the working class for their ingratitude. ”
“Fear has no hold in deindustrialized urban landscapes and the neglected wastelands of rural America, where families struggle without sustainable work, an opioid crisis, food deserts, personal bankruptcies, evictions, crippling debt and profound despair.
They want what Trump wants. Vengeance. Who can blame them? ”
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/joe-bidens-parting-gift-to-america
“He was found guilty of sexual abuse on May 9, 2023, in New York. – Garth”
No garth, he was found liable for sexual abuse on May 9, 2023, in New York, and it is under appeal, likely to win. Please do not ‘distort’ facts- JohnnyB
The jury found him guilty. The quote above is from AP. In a normal world he would be disqualified from public office. – Garth
DELETED
Your prediction of “widespread collapse” is at odds with the economic record of the previous Trump administration which was quite good. The rainbow flags, symbols, and slogans outside Scotiabank offices reveal where they are coming from. I hope President Trump completes two vital projects during his first years in office: the Keystone Pipeline and the Mexican border wall. Trump 2024.
#137 Ustabe on 04.23.24 at 7:42 pm
Are you certain you want to take me up on that offer SailAway?
—————
I already did. Let’s do this.
Said it earlier.
Say it again.
Trump can’t sit and be quiet.
The Courtroom explosion is coming.
“Gift the Devil a horse and he’ll ride it straight to Hell”
:)
@#136 Ponzies Plush Pottie Pressurewasher
“Never been someone who judged people by their material possessions.
Not gonna start now.
It’s not how much you’re making.
Is how much you’re spending.”
+++
So thats a yes on the new triple cost Bidet?
GVRD Sales
Yesterday
Sales 159
Listings 442
Today
Sales 137
Listings 372
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
DELETED
#141 Soviet Capitalist on 04.23.24 at 7:52 pm
These kinds of accusations seem ridiculous to me and a proof the system has been weaponized against Trump.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Now do the other 90-something criminal charges under indictment by grand juries.
DELETED
Soviet Capitalist : “The payment was done from his personal account. ”
No, it was not. That’s the whole point. It was done from his business account, and marked as a “legal expense”, it was not a legal expense, which is part of what this trial is for.
And it was done during an election (so could be election interference, which this trial will determine).
Trump even said so outside court on Monday. Here’s the video.. 48 seconds in.. Straight from the horses mouth. There’s a weird thing with Trump supporters where he says one thing, and they insist he says something totally different.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SACu7REWaZA
“If this kind of staff is allowed to pass, then anyone can be accused of anything.”
What a totally weird statement.
#139 JohnnyB on 04.23.24 at 7:47 pm
“Hush money, ie NDAs are not illegal.”
He’s not on trial for having a NDA. Read past the headlines, you might learn something.
SEE THIS:
Biden Calls for 44.6% Capital Gains Tax Rate, Highest Capital Gains Tax Since Its Creation in 1922:
https://www.atr.org/biden-calls-for-44-6-capital-gains-tax-rate-highest-capital-gains-tax-since-its-creation-in-1922/
@#144 Johnny BeeBop
” Please do not ‘distort’ facts- JohnnyB”
++++
You are defending a pig.
The man is twice divorced (soon to be thrice).
The man has had endless affairs.
The man brags about sexually “grabbing” women.
The man has no moral or ethical compass.
He will embrace religion to win votes.
He will use lawsuits to silence criticism.
He will use your blind support to help him stay out of jail.
He considers you a loser because you have nothing he needs.
Where is his wife? Where are his children?
(As far away from his epic fall from grace and the ball of flame that may burn them on his way down….)
Quite a hero you have.
The testimony in the New York Courtroom confirms the worst that this man has to offer.
And the testimony has just started.
:)
137 – Ustabe
Don’t be so dense. Sail is a US citizen, he’d be across in no time. And as a Canadian, I’d like my chances as well. Mexican national would probably take a week to take your money.
By your account, the border is secure, there are very few illegals, therefore deporting them is a non issue. So whats the issue?
One thing I haven’t noticed mentioned in the comments today is that Trump winning the next election will be disastrous for any chance at mitigating the effects of climate change. Sorry kids.
Justin Trudeau says Carbon pricing funds owed by Saskatchewan will be collected by the CRA.
“We are going to continue to deliver the Canada Carbon Rebate to families right across Saskatchewan despite the fact that Premier Scott Moe is not sending that money to Ottawa right now.”
@#143 Tanned
“I quote Chris Hedges, a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist who was a foreign correspondent for fifteen years for The New York Times.”
++++
I couldn’t get past the comparison Chris Hedges op ed.
He mockingly compares Biden’s Democracts to Weimar Germany….
What’s that make Trump? Hitler’s Germany?
I guess we know how that worked out.
Try harder.
Trump getting re-elected worries me for another reason. He’s said he won’t bail out Canada militarily.
We have a neighbour to the direct North who already has invaded another of their neighbours. Russia. We have an Arctic Ocean which will be ice-free in a decade or two of this climate change. And there are lots of other countries whose population will need to find a better climate. Where will they go? They need to find someplace still habitable, in country with little or no military.
Canada’s military is now so bad that we cannot train future fighter pilots. And the US may not bail us out if a country or two starts taking over the Arctic islands and parts of Hudson Bay.
I fear the Canada we know today won’t exist in 2 or 3 decades.
#159 Observer on 04.23.24 at 9:29 pm
There is still no scientific proof man made climate change exists, proof like we have for electricity, gravity, radio activity,… Only political consensus and computer models/games which are not proof of anything.
#140 First Nation on 04.23.24 at 7:48 pm
What … $23 billion still not enough for you?
#162 tkid on 04.23.24 at 9:46 pm
Trump getting re-elected worries me for another reason. He’s said he won’t bail out Canada militarily.
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Also worrying that Trump on multiple occasions has expressed a desire to be president for life.
When Chinese President Xi consolidated power, during a luncheon for Republican donors at his South Florida estate Trump told them: “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great.” Trump added, “I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot someday.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-says-maybe-u-s-will-have-a-president-for-life-someday
#158 Mattl on 04.23.24 at 9:27 pm
137 – Ustabe
Don’t be so dense. Sail is a US citizen, he’d be across in no time. And as a Canadian, I’d like my chances as well. Mexican national would probably take a week to take your money.
By your account, the border is secure, there are very few illegals, therefore deporting them is a non issue. So whats the issue?
Sail Away is a bald Venezuelan immigrant with no ID, no money. I’d love to see how Border Security deals with him. Not going to happen, tho. I refuse to be near anyone who eats boiled squirrel brains.
And, Mattl, its not “my account”, it is fact. Did you miss all the very searchable cites I provided?
#157 crowdedelevatorfartz on 04.23.24 at 9:26 pm
Crowded elevator fartz is lecturing us on morals. LOL!
#162 tkid on 04.23.24 at 9:46 pm
Trump getting re-elected worries me for another reason. He’s said he won’t bail out Canada militarily.
^^^^^^^^^^^
And wants to pull out of NATO.
Garth I feel for ya lol – I walked a dog today for my neighbor and he was much better company than the blog dogs
Re….”He mockingly compares Biden’s Democracts to Weimar Germany….”
That’s your story and you’re sticking with it. That’s fine. Carry on!
But, where’s the mockery when Mr Hedges speaks of authoritarianism here?
“Authoritarianism is nurtured in the fertile soil of a bankrupt liberalism. This was true in Weimar Germany. It was true in the former Yugoslavia. And it is true now. The Democrats had four years to institute New Deal reforms. They failed. Now we will pay.”
or here?
“The Democrats know the working class has abandoned them. And they know why. Democratic Party pollster Mike Lux writes:
[C]ontrary to many pundits’ assumptions, economic issues are driving the problems of Democrats in non-metro working class counties far more than the culture war…[T]hese voters wouldn’t care all that much about cultural difference and the woke thing if they thought Democrats gave more of a damn about economic challenges they face deeply and daily…The voters we need to win in these counties are not inherently right-wing on social issues.
But the Democrats will not alienate the corporations and billionaires who keep them in office. They have opted instead for two self-defeating tactics: lies and fear.”
DELETED
Former President Trump is leading in the poles and is likely to beat President Biden because Trump is being gifted a large share of votes from non-white people with children. These voters feel Biden has ignored them while he hands out billions to business and forgives student loans of others who are better off than them. These voters never had a chance to get a higher education because they were poor and had to work.
I have said many times that Canada’s economy and financial system are vulnerable to external shocks. Our economy lacks resilience because it is lop-sided by residential real estate and high debt of it’s citizens and government.
A Trump win would qualify as an external shock.
I would really hope neither Trump nor Biden is the next president but politicizing law and justice to further Democrat election fortune is beyond forgiveness.
Thats much worse than our Prime Minister prostituting our media.
#141 Soviet Capitalist on 04.23.24 at 7:52 pm
Joseph R – the fact that some people are screaming ‘Lock her up’ is not a proof that Trump has weaponized anything.
———————————————-
If by “some people,” you meant “rallying cry,” then we agree.
Yes, it proves he is weaponized in a political campaign and
——————————————
“If this kind of staff is allowed to pass, then anyone can be accused of anything.”
Wow!!
When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.
#1 Soviet Capitalist on 04.23.24 at 11:38 am
“Not a big fan of Trump, but the fact that the Democrats have weaponized the system to get rid of their political opponent feels disgusting.”
Exactly. And people are waking up.
No wonder support for Trump has been growing, especially among African Americans and Latinos.
“With The Donald in power, and pursuing his agenda of tariffs, an assault on China, and mass deportations of US non-citizens…”
“Non-citizens”, really? So even those with Resident status will be deported?
“Polls show it’s currently a toss-up between the two fossils.”
That might be for national polls but in the all important swing states where Presidential elections are won and lost, recent polling shows Trump with a slight lead in those states.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-has-slight-edge-over-biden-us-swing-state-election-polls-2024-04-23/
My own view is Trump is the likely winner this Fall, in large part due to the declining support from democrats for a variety of reasons – and discussed extensively in the press.
I am not saying I like it, but that is my take. Buckle up, I am expecting a wild ride as Trump moves to implement some of the policies outlined in the report or put differently “burn the place down”.
Garth, you are confusing “guilt” (in a criminal trial) with “liability” (in a civil trial).
As stated several times by your readers, President Trump has never been found “guilty” of anything. Sexual “abuse” is not a criminal offense. Sexual “assault” is, and that’s not what Mr. Trump was found liable for.
Your careless and false words constitute a *defamatory libel* against Mr. Trump.
Sexually abusing a woman is inexcusable and unforgivable. As are those who seek to normalize and diminish the act. Shame on you. – Garth
DELETED
This analysis is completely out of touch with reality. It’s hilariously dumb
Garth, you must be a masochist to enable comments on a Trump post. It’s like a bat signal for the mentally unwell.
#166 Ustabe on 04.23.24 at 10:06 pm
Sail Away is a bald Venezuelan immigrant with no ID, no money. I’d love to see how Border Security deals with him. Not going to happen, tho. I refuse to be near anyone who eats boiled squirrel brains.
—————
I accept your challenge and you fold like a wet sheet?
Sad!
Speculative. Fear mongering.
Trump 2024! Way better President. But a lousy Public Speaker
#88 ustabe
“ We will go down 15 miles into Mexico, you will give me your passport and drivers license, I will give you $25 in pesos.•
The border is tightly controlled on the Mexican side by the cartels, that $25 is going to leave you stuck or likely dead if you try crossing without paying.
#162 tkid on 04.23.24 at 9:46 pm
Canada’s military is now so bad that we cannot train future fighter pilots. And the US may not bail us out if a country or two starts taking over the Arctic islands and parts of Hudson Bay.
____________________________________
When one has more stuff than can be affordably maintained due to books which won’t balance, something underutilized should be sold, such as some Arctic Islands and part of Hudson Bay.
I’d offer them to the benevolent neighbor with the printing press that has been defending them since the end of WWII.
Probably wouldn’t be as foolish as the sale of Alaska or Louisiana was in the near/mid term, in future hindsight.
The only Canadian who need fear a Trump presidency is Justin Trudeau. A roaring US economy and a common sense leader in Canada would break open Canada’s natural potential. We would boom when Trudeau’s Red Star Wacko jackboot is lifted off the neck of Canada’s economy. Go Trump. Canada needs a strong America, not the Trudeau – WEF oppressive ideological hate for our Maple.
We need a housing crash right now. Many people are just working two or three jobs only to pay rent to the landlord like a serf.
A housing crash would come with an economic one. Don not wish for that. – Garth
After reading the report put out yesterday by Scotia Bank, on April 23, 2024 · Jean-François Perrault.
It’s scary to even think what will happen to Canada if Trump wins the election this time around, the only thing that I will add is, save some money for a rainy day, because it will rain dogs and cats on your real estate parade.
The last thing I would do right now is buy any real estate anywhere in Canada, under a Trump win, this beautiful country will come undone like a pair of wool socks for most off anything effecting our GDP. Our Feds best have a lot of UI money stacked away, they will need it, four years is a long wait.
Scotia Bank puts the odds at a 50-50 chance of either Biden or Trump winning.
@ Johnny Beebop
You are proof that MAGA stands for…
Make America Gullible Again.
Frothing at the mouth because someone dares to criticize a Grifter politician that has shown who he is time and time again.
Its very interesting that his family and former business associates are nowhere, nowhere to be seen.
He’s a pariah, a back stabbing weasel that has finally ended up in a criminal Court where he has to sit down, shut up and take it….
I’m still waiting for his spoiled, man child ego, to explode and earn him a few days in jail for contempt of Court;
Its inevitable…he can’t help himself…. he’s a loon.
@ Tannerite
After reading Hedges conspiratorial drivel….
I understand why he no longer works at the New York Times.
Time to read something more objective?
May I suggest The Economist…unless, of course, it’s above your intellectual and financial pay grade….
Its not the conspiracy theory drivel you’re used to but what the hell, expand that narrow mind.
Ponzie swears by, and at, it.
The fatal flaw in that “Economists” report is the assumption (mistaken) that Trump would actually follow through on any of his stated policy platforms. He’s all talk.
He panders to the populist desires of the disenfranchised ignorant masses and feeds into their dissatisfaction.
He says what they want to hear.
If he’s elected, he will do practically nothing but rabble rouse.
At least half of the U.S. population is unhappy with the status quo and the constant gaslighting from the current administration, the wokeness, the artificial political correctness, the virtue signalling, the policies favouring the fringe minorities, the horrible foreign policy, the taxation, the border insecurity, the put downs, the denial of the president’s mental state, etc.
So, pending the outcomes of Trump’s criminal trials, there is a reasonable chance that he will get elected.
And guess what?
It will, as usual, be a giant nothing burger.
The chaos will continue.
Business as usual.
The campaigning for the following election will begin on the next day.
Economists write reports like first or second year undergrad students. Compiling the most obvious data and drawing direct conclusions from it without factoring in any nuance. Open and shut.
Dismal science, indeed.
If there is no housing crash, the distortions would get worse. Do not wish for that- Quintilian the truth teller
When I see Canadians rooting for Trump, it makes me think the provinces don’t spend nearly enough on education. And then I think that we need more quality news coverage, not less.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say the entire world would be better off if this man is finally convicted of his crimes and prevented from taking the helm again. He caused a lot of chaos the first time. The second round he would have nothing to lose.
Sources are indicating some bad shit is about to go down in Chad, Africa.
#44 Igor on 04.23.24 at 1:18 pm
Biden is the worst thing that could have happened to the Western world but not many people dare not to
-Hundreds of thousands of dead Ukrainians
How did Biden cause this? Did Biden invade Ukraine?
-Tens of thousands of dead Palestinians
Again, how is this Biden’s fault? Did he make Hamas launch their assault on Israel? The last time the US was attacked in a comparable way they launched wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, under Republican leadership.
-Broken relationship with China and inability to mend it
And Trump’s posturing about laying huge tariffs on China is going to improve things?
-Nato falling apart
Who says it’s falling apart? If anything, it has gained a couple new members in the last couple years.
-Inability to ramp up industrial production for weapons (not that this would help Ukraine anyway)
Since when does Biden control industrial production? How would Trump do any better?
-Amazing levels of corruption by the military-industrial complex claiming to be replenishing the US stocks of weapons sent to Ukraine and Israel
Now you’re just making stuff up with no evidence at all.
-Crazy financial crisis caused by unheard levels of debt and money printing (yes, they are printing money, hence the inflation)
The US government doesn’t print the money, that would be the Fed, which is independent. But yes, they have borrowed a lot of money.
-Western Europe suffering due to puppet governments in the hands of NATO generals
-Broken relationship with Saudi Arabia
How so? By refusing to roll over and abandon Israel? Yeah, that’s too bad.
Thank you TSLL, nice to wake up and cash out for an easy 8k morning cup of coffee. I wonder how the shorts are doing who were posting about this one going into the ground.
#67 Ole Doberman on 04.23.24 at 2:17 pm
The illuminati run by the U.S shadow government will make sure the voting booths are stuffed with fake ballots so uncle Joe ‘wins’ again.
====================================
There is one party and candidate in the US who have consistently shown themselves willing to tilt the playing field to ensure electoral victory, and it ain’t the Democrats.
Yes of course what happens in the US ripples, but as Canadians why are we so fixated on Trump’s chaos when we’ve got our own political circus under Trudeau? He clings to power despite widespread disapproval, showcasing the cracks in our democratic façade. It’s high time we address our flawed system instead of being distracted by America’s drama. Let’s get our own house in order.
If leaders were replaceable based on popularity there would be none. And every decision would pander to public whim. – Garth
#192 Quintilian on 04.24.24 at 9:11 am
A housing crash would come with an economic one. Do not wish for that. – Garth
If there is no housing crash, the distortions would get worse. Do not wish for that- Quintilian the truth teller
———
That comment has value.
No it does not. There will be no real esate correction without a spike in rates or a plunge in GDP. Either way jobs will be lost – and not among the wealthy. – Garth
He caused a lot of chaos the first time.
………
Hillary supporters burned and trashed cities across the land. Middle East peace. Russia behaving. China inline. Low inflation. Cheap gas.Strong economy. (pre covid).
Sure would hate to have all that chaos again!
Wow, our last TSLA buy is +17% in 2 days. Cool.
Go Elon!
#5 anesthesia amnesia on 04.22.24 at 2:02 pm
#135 Sail Away on 04.22.24 at 11:27 am
kicking up a storm and sleeping in the production room.
ooooooooooooooooooo
A debilitating ketamine addiction will do that.
Good luck on the stock buy. You’ll need it. Your record is extremely poor even before factoring in the $1.1M in paper losses with the stock.
****************************************
Tesla up 13% today.
LMAO.
Talk about bad timing!
This obsession of yours must not only eat up a lot of your time, the results must be really painful lol.
#199 Travelling on 04.24.24 at 10:01 am
#192 Quintilian on 04.24.24 at 9:11 am
A housing crash would come with an economic one. Do not wish for that. – Garth
If there is no housing crash, the distortions would get worse. Do not wish for that- Quintilian the truth teller
———
That comment has value.
No it does not. There will be no real esate correction without a spike in rates or a plunge in GDP. Either way jobs will be lost – and not among the wealthy. – Garth
———
Too big to fail mentality is the failure.
I’d pick more frequent shallow recessions than a massive deep recession. I’ve been through several and it made me financially stronger and more resilient afterwards even if at the time it was crappy. Better to learn from those shallow recessions and prepare financially while it doesn’t hurt so bad. The hole that has been dug now is going to eventually be very nasty. It didn’t need to come to that.
The left mob is interfering with democracy. Garth you’re a liberal and it shows
When you fear being able to refute an argument, you attack the man. Coward. – Garth
The war in Ukraine will be lost by its peoples reports of cowardice.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-as-bloody-war-rages-on-ukraine-attempts-to-bolster-its-tired-ranks/
There are hundreds of thousands of soulless draft dodgers hiding in EU countries and hundreds of thousands more frolicking on the beaches and flesh pots of SE Asian beaches across Thailand, Malaysia, Indo, inc Bali and Sumatra, Vietnam Lao.
Just two days ago Ukraine Parliament passed a law to repatriate all conscription age expats ( that EU ministers call cowards) with punitive fines and ending consular services. Without passports it forces Canada to deport them…. Or will Trudeau work as hard to defend them as he has others, even more dangerous.
@ Ponzie’s Prussian Proletariat Protests
Care to comment about the German Spy Agency’s warnings about communist China Mr Ponzerelli?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-spy-agency-warns-companies-against-being-too-naive-china-2024-04-24/
Seems Furz isn’t the only one with concerns about what types of schemes are happening behind the Great Wall of Dictatorship.
@#200 Bdwy
” Hillary supporters burned and trashed cities across the land…”
+++
Really?
The Clinton riots? When? Where?
Nothing the Clinton supporters did after Trumps 2016 election could hold a candle to the traitorous, murderous, riot on Jan 6th 2020 that Trump encouraged and then absolved himself from.
People died on Jan 6th and many were injured.
Democracy was threatened as Trump sat and watched a violent, uncontrolled mob rampage through the Capital Building.
He is an absolute, utter, revolting disgrace.
#162 ‘t kid’ – sovereign rights & global warming aside, the fact remains that the northern parts of Canada remain largely uninhabited because it is a brutal climate up there. To wit: Canada is 150 years plus as a country. Our current population is 40 or 41 million people due to recent massive immigration. Despite this, the combined population of Canada’s territories – Yukon, NW Territories, Nunavut – is just over 118K people spread out over 3.9 MILLION square kilometers. Labrador has around 30K people to populate an area of 405K square kilometers. This is not by chance. It is because living in our northern climes is one tough gig. So even if countries lay claim to Arctic islands or parts of Hudson’s Bay, the presence there will be military or if civilian, very limited in nature. Too tough a climate for it to be otherwise.
Already starting to blame trump for any upcoming recession/economic collapse when the current administration would be the main cause of that, should it happen. I can recall a very strong economy and stock market from 2016-2020 and expect much of the same, along with ends to wars, harder stance on crime, deportation of illegals and border security. I’ll take that and live with the mean tweets!
Why on earth do these Trump-loving Canadians care about the Mexican border or US urban crime rates? Weird. – Garth
#203 Travelling on 04.24.24 at 10:43 am
Shallow recessions are great to wring out excesses. The politicians along with their servant Central Bankers suppressed the business cycle.
It’s so distorted now that 10 rate hikes have not been able to slow the economy down.
Of course it has slowed. GDP growth is near zero. Unemployment has risen over 6%. Commercial vacancy rates have soared. Real estate sales have halved in many markets. Try to be accurate. We might then take you seriously. – Garth
How can I best put this… I’ve been reminded of a practice that isn’t so common these days, but necessary. It is quite simply to criticize the behavior or the actions, not the person even though they sometimes end up being one and the same. It’s not the way I want to do it really, but it’s necessary all the same. Summarized, don’t make it personal.
That said, when Trump was president, the U.S. government was $20 trillion in debt. When Trump left office, he added $8 trillion in Fed gov debt, but also added another $5.5 trillion in central bank debt and the repo market grew by another $1+ trillion. All told, Trump left office with the U.S. government $27 trillion in the hole with roughly another $ trillion worth of debt that Republicans don’t talk about, along with rampant inflation from all the money supply bloat.
No other president in history has even come close to doubling the nation’s deficit in 4 years, not even in WWII but Trump did. The argument in his favor was the pandemic but even with this argument, Trump was printing money for the pre election wealth effect before the pandemic hit. In 2019, before it hit.
The U.S.’s #1 trading partner is Europe ($1.3 trillion in 2 way trade in 2023). The U.S.’s second largest trading partner is Mexico ($792 billion). Trump wants to leave NATO and defund Ukraine war efforts at a time when Europe is at war with Russia. The threat of Trump putting up 100%+ tariffs on LNG to Europe shouldn’t be ignored. Imagine what that would do to Europe’s ability to manufacture weapons in the middle of a war with Russia.
In no way, not through the last 80 years since WWII does it make sense for the U.S. to abandon it’s #1 ally and trading partner in the middle of a war with Russia. This makes no sense on so many levels, I don’t know where to begin other than by saying that what has always made the U.S. so great is trade.
The U.S. is the world’s largest economy because the U.S. provided 4 layers of security after WWII: A stable world currency, a dominant military presence, international markets & commerce & 4thly the international rule of law (UN was formed shortly after WWII)to offer fairness and guidance to avoid or resolve trade disputes. Globalization as it exists today as it has evolved, love it or hate it, is because of U.S. policy and dominance. Take that trade away, and these global securities erode.
That said, the U.S. has invested trillions over decades in Europe. It shouldn’t have to be said how trade money ping pongs through a national economy, but it does! To think that the U.S. could replace this market once again, makes no sense whatsoever. The idea of destabilizing the broader security of Europe at any time from a U.S. perspective makes no sense other than, say, corruption? He’s bought off by a foreign power? (Russia) What other reason is there.
Let’s explore one, perhaps it’s psychological splitting at play:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Splitting_(psychology)
Political opposition parties do it all the time. “The incumbent party is doing everything wrong and we’re going to do everything different”. Everything? We’re going to undo 80 years of U.S. policy that has made it the empire it is today because of a form of full blown narcissism? That’s the argument? Corruption makes more sense. These names are still in power today and guess how they vote:
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/1703774/what-really-happened-when-gop-senators-visited-moscow/
Trump wants to close the border with Mexico, siting racist ideals as the #1 reasons why. So lets recap. A former president up on 4 separate criminal trials wants to crater trade with his top 2 trading partners in the world. His economic record is the worst in U.S. history going back to the days of revolution. He’s indited on 4 criminal cases, all of them serious, charges that if convicted would see him do life in jail and they should be career ending but the best support Trump has through all of Trump’s history is? Drum roll please, it’s right wing media.
We are seeing at least 2 competing narratives in what’s best defined as “both sides ism”. The airwaves are stacked heavy with propaganda. One constant theme is to accuse others of what you yourself are doing. When caught, blame your opponent for doing the same things using similar arguments. When believed, the truth is the first casualty as evidenced by anyone who really knows what is going on and watches right wing media to realize why Trump has the support he has. It’s not built on truth, but if we’ve learned anything about bias’s, the most common bias and likely the most destructive is confirmation bias:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
Simply put, we believe what we want to belief and in the age of algorithms, they become heavily reinforced. You Tube is the best example I can think of that mainstreams confirmation bias.
All I know is, with the level of U.S. debt… if the U.S. turned it’s back on Europe in the middle of a war with Russia, turned it’s back on NATO… closed the border with Mexico, like really manifested Trump’s “policy” and the next leader didn’t reverse it, it would be the end of the world order as we know it.
If the U.S. had leadership that turned away from everything that has made the U.S. the global economic superpower that it is, it would just… cease to be. The report that Garth referenced, timelines are important here but I would think the numbers used would be worse if you have GDP shrinking in double digits with the debt load the U.S. has, but that’s if the U.S. just decided to stop being the U.S. .
What I see happening if Trump gets in power if he lives long enough is he would do a lot of damage is a president that replaces him trying to reverse everything he’s done because of the cost of losing Europe to Russia for example to the U.S. economy. Would that mean U.S. boots on the ground, I think it would and that’s just for starters.
Please forgive, but when a politician comes up with policy that makes no sense, to me, it’s either corruption or said individual isn’t in their right mind. There could be many causes for that, poor diet, dementia, past trauma and injuries and last but not least drugs & alcohol.
A couple months ago (algos), I stumbled on a video concerning WH medical clinic that looks after 60 or so individuals in the White House. There was a list of scripts the White House doctor ordered in 2017 that was an incomplete list over a 6 month period provided in the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DqjNeDH3NM
There were some Oxy’s and Ketamine and strong tranquilizers that suggested exploration or a visit to the past… but the pill counts were low except for 3500 Provigil (type of amphetamine) and 4,000 Ambien (sleeping pills). These numbers stuck out to me because it’s enough to medicate a half a dozen people 24/7 in the whitehouse.
Ambien & Provigil taken long enough would also lead to a drug dependency and potentially chronic disease over the long term. Ambien for example (sleeping pills in general), have a 400% increase in the likelihood of developing CKD (Chronic Kidney Disease). Puffy eyes is a trademark of the use of Ambien as is the case with most if not all sleeping pills.
Provigil is a stimulant and with Stimulants that are psychoactive (release Dopamine/Adrenaline), dilated pupils are a common theme. Examples of stimulants are LSD, Mushrooms, cocaine and of course, amphetamines.
When a person is “stimulated”, they might even still be able to function. Check out this video of Trump at a CPAC convention. (I wouldn’t spend much time on it, just note the physical changes to his eyes and behavior as he rolls on through his speech):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBpbTm6i_cU
This isn’t an attack, it’s explanation. Sure, it’s possible that the WH prescriptions weren’t for Trump, it’s possible. It’s just as possible that some of them were for Trump. And, it’s most likely that as one reads the side effects of Provigil (sweaty, runny nose, elevated heartbeat, dilated pupils) and watches Trump’s 2019 speech at CPAC, it’s not a stretch to think this is Provigil.
As a person ages, physical health complications can set in, but some habits might remain. A person may start medications to stay away awake or get to sleep years before, say, having heart disease or kidney problems but as time rolls on, things change and if there are drug dependent habits that are still going on, obviously the individual is at a much higher risk to a heart attack or a stroke etc. .
I’m trying to explain Trump’s lack of impulse controls, the late night tweets, his conflicted nature. The side effects of these drugs can’t be hidden. Puffy eyes with Ambien or other sleeping pills for example or dilated pupils with a stimulant like Provigil… and one should be careful there as people have normal adrenal responses to stimuli such as giving a speech or falling in love or being at court etc., but if you aren’t particularly excited and your pupils are still dilated… the choices narrow.
I’m just trying to explain something here. There are risks with so called benign drugs that go well beyond bad behavior or poor judgment. It’s the risk of just staying alive. Donald is not teflon, do readers follow?
#190 Crowded Elevator Farts
When I watch you hurl nothing but ad hominem fallacies devoid of any relevant facts, it is clear by any metric of critical thinking you have lost your argument.
Someone has stolen Dolce’s identity. He Did not kiss Garth’s butt in his latest post!!!!
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