Even though this will be his third playoff trip, this will be the first time Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will enter a playoff series as the top option. Since last season, he’s ascended into one of the best players in the league with back-to-back probable top-five MVP finishes.

The 25-year-old has averaged 30.7 points on 52% shooting in the last two seasons. He’s averaged 9.7 free-throw attempts in that stretch. The biggest question surrounding Gilgeous-Alexander is whether his efficient scoring can translate to the playoffs with a tighter whistle.

Referees are usually less lenient with foul calls in high-intensity playoff environments, which means Gilgeous-Alexander will need to go off from the field to overcome the lack of calls he’s grown accustomed to in the last couple of years.

This could prove especially challenging against the Pelicans. Herb Jones is one of the better defenders in the league against Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged 25 points on 44% shooting in three games against New Orleans this season. This was one of his least efficient splits.

If the Thunder are to make a deep playoff run, Gilgeous-Alexander will need to be the indisputable best player in this series. This should be the case as the Pelicans’ top two players are either out or hobbled.

Since March, Josh Giddey has turned the corner in his season. He’s averaged 15.6 points on 54% shooting, 7.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists in 21 games. He’s been a plus-7.6 on the court in that stretch.

The 3-point shooting has been better in that stretch, shooting 37% from 3 on 3.4 attempts. It’s been a nice streak of decent outside shooting but that is likely not sustainable, especially in the playoffs. But what is sustainable is his off-ball movement.

Instead of being placed in the perimeter and putting OKC at a disadvantage in the half-court, he’s found seams and successfully driven to the basket once the ball reaches him. He’s shot an efficient 69% on attempts in the restricted area since Mar. 1.

If the Giddey can continue this playstyle in the playoffs, then the Thunder won’t have a clear weakness among their starters. The Pelicans won’t be able to force OKC’s hand and bench the third-year guard down the stretch. A massive advantage to have considering how rough it looked for the 21-year-old throughout lengthy portions of the regular season.

On the season, Jonas Valanciunas has been a starter for the Pelicans. He’s averaged 23.5 minutes in 82 games. Against the Thunder, that’s slashed to 10.7 minutes in three matchups. This included being benched the entire second half in the season’s final contest.

It’s evident Valanciunas is borderline unplayable against the Thunder. He was a negative-10 in his 32 total minutes. The fast-paced squad has turned the 6-foot-11, 265-pound center into a massive weakness for the Pelicans. The crafty and spacing Chet Holmgren is a bad matchup for the hefty big.

That will likely continue in the playoffs. If that materializes, then a short-handed Pelicans gets even shorter as they lose another starter due to a poor series matchup. New Orleans will be forced to play OKC’s style, which it doesn’t possess the personnel to go toe-to-toe with.

This should be a masterful chess game between two of the best sideline technicians in the league. Mark Daigneault and Willie Green are some of the brightest minds among the head coaching ranks.

While Daigneault will likely take home the Coach of the Year award, he has the disadvantage of it being his first playoff series. There are no serious concerns about how Daigneault will handle a playoff atmosphere. He’s talked several times about continuing to do what they’ve done in the regular season in the playoffs. But it’s something that needs to happen first to calm nerves.

Meanwhile, Green will make his second playoff appearance in three years. The Pelicans lost to the first-seed Suns in six games in 2022. He’s had his fair share of postseason experiences, including the play-in tournament.

Green will have to create a massive coaching advantage this series as the Pelicans will be without Williamson in a series where New Orleans already had struggled against OKC. Meanwhile, Daigneault needs to only continue the status quo with a fully healthy and rested roster.

Zion Williamson suffered a season-altering injury in the Pelicans’ play-in tournament loss to the Lakers. He will be re-evaluated in two weeks. That knocks out the two-time All-Star for most of the series. There are faint hopes of a late return if New Orleans can extend the series.

Without Williamson, it’s hard to emphasize enough how much his absence swings the series towards the Thunder. The 23-year-old has enjoyed a career season after dealing with injuries the last two years. He scored a season-high 40 points before his leg injury against the Lakers.

The Williamson injury should help the Thunder make this a relatively stress-free series. Perhaps New Orleans can steal a game to give him additional time to rush back from his injury. This could give New Orleans an outside shot of Willamson’s return in an elimination game.

Considering the state of their roster, the Pelicans will need CJ McCollum to step up as the second-best scorer. He’s had strong playoff outings before with the Trail Blazers under similar circumstances.

But the Thunder roster a two-headed tandem of POA defenders in Lu Dort and Cason Wallace. They should combine to give McCollum trouble, who struggled in both play-in tournament games. He will need to earn his baskets. Against OKC this season, he averaged 21.3 points on 39% shooting. This will need to improve or the Pelicans won’t survive against the Thunder.

On the flip side, this should make Dort extra valuable against the Pelicans. If he can also have a hot outside shooting series, that’s a bonus for OKC. The 25-year-old has a history of stepping up in do-or-die environments.

If the streaky outside shooter can have a string of strong 3-point shooting while locking down the Pelicans’ second-best healthy scorer, that can sway the result of games.

Everything considered, luck broke towards the Thunder with the play-in tournament results. They avoided their toughest possibility in the Lakers. The Pelicans enter the series with their best player out and their second-best player hurt.

This is the most lopsided of the four first-round series in the Western Conference. The Thunder are fully healthy and rested while the Pelicans had to go through a pair of grueling postseason contests. This should heavily tilt the series towards OKC’s favor.

If the Thunder can continue to dictate the pace and force the Pelicans to match points with them, OKC should win this series with relative ease. They will do this and show the rest of the league that their youth won’t limit their playoff success.

Prediction: Thunder in 5