What happened in the leadup to the 2024 NFL Draft

The 2014 NFL Draft wouldn’t happen for months, but according to Steve Gera, at least one Cleveland Browns executive had his mind made up on one of its most polarizing prospects.

A special assistant to head coach Rob Chudzinski, Gera had been in the NFL for more than five years. The San Diego Chargers had hired the former Marine to “do analytics” in 2007. Gera’s qualifications included a recently obtained MBA from San Diego State and the fact that he’d read “Moneyball.” He scouted opponents and supplied data to coaches through easy-to-read narratives.

“I would just crack jokes and make fun of our offensive coaches but also include information,” Gera said recently. “Data is inherently boring and soulless. What you hear typically sounds like the first day on f—— Mars. I wanted to break it down shotgun style.”

The approach kept him around. Gera studied fourth-down attempts, timeout usage and draft strategies. Relationships made in that role helped him transition into becoming a coach.

That’s what led him to Cleveland, where, on a plane at the beginning of the 2013 season, he says he heard a Browns executive say, “The only person I’ve seen who competes harder than Johnny Manziel is Michael Jordan.”

“What makes you say that?” Gera asked.

“Tape,” the executive said. “Watch it long enough, and you’ll see it, too.”

Gera left the NFL a decade ago and has since worked in the NBA and European soccer, founded data science companies and taught. Experience in different sectors helped crystallize some of Gera’s beliefs about football, and the Manziel moment epitomizes what Gera believes is one of the most faulty decision-making processes in the NFL: draft strategy.

Compare a prospect to a legend from the outset, and you — or, say, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam, who drafted Manziel No. 22 overall and then watched as the quarterback’s career imploded suddenly and spectacularly — are likely to cling to that early comparison despite evidence to the contrary.

“The draft is an absolute petri dish for every cognitive bias underneath the sun,” Gera said.

Conversations with 14 general managers, coaches, analytics staffers, scouts and executives in other sports — some of whom were granted anonymity because they were not authorized by their current organizations to speak about the highly competitive process — unearthed a messy concoction of uncertainty, overconfidence, competing incentives, pressure and impatience.

“Human dynamics writ large,” said Hall of Fame NFL executive Bill Polian.

Even Nobel Prize-winning scholars have spent decades mulling whether there is a single best way to draft.

The answer, they’ve found, is a resounding yes. But only a few teams are curious enough to think differently, and even fewer are disciplined enough to act differently.

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We’re just a few days away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and at this point in the process, general manager John Schneider and head coach Mike Macdonald are probably holed up in the Virginia Mason Athletic Center finalizing their first draft board together.

While they work on that, here’s our 35-prospect big board ahead of the draft, which begins Thursday night.

The Seahawks have seven picks, including the No. 16 pick in the first round. The top five players on our board:

1. Alabama edge Dallas Turner
2. Florida State edge Jared Verse
3. Washington OL Troy Fautanu
4. Texas DT Byron Murphy II
5. Duke OL Graham Barton

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Ryan Poles smiled — almost laughed — as he answered a question about whether the Chicago Bears were set on taking USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the NFL Draft.

“I think everyone’s got to tune in on Thursday to watch and figure out,” the Bears general manager said Tuesday at Halas Hall. “But I feel really good about our process and where we are and where we’re headed. So we know what we’re going to do, but everyone is going to have to wait until Thursday to go there.”

Of course, everyone knows where this is going. Poles was just having some fun. There’s no point in playing coy. There’s no point in lying. Poles has spoken openly about Williams — and that continued on Tuesday.

Here are five takeaways from Poles and assistant general manager Ian Cunningham’s annual pre-draft news conference.

PITTSBURGH — So let’s get this straight: The Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t concerned with the center position, are excited about their wide receivers group and are hopeful about their depth at cornerback.

Oh, let’s hope that’s not the case.

The Steelers’ top decision-makers — coach Mike Tomlin and general manager Omar Khan — spent 30 minutes inside the UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on Monday ahead of this week’s NFL Draft painting a picture that everything on their roster is swell and dandy before they go on the clock with the 20th pick in Thursday’s first round.

This despite the obvious shortcomings that even the casual fan can glean from a once-over of the roster.

“We’ve addressed a lot of needs, and you don’t feel overly thirsty in any particular area,” Tomlin said.

That can mean one of two things: They have overestimated their current roster, or they are throwing up one huge smokescreen days before the NFL draft.

I tend to think Tomlin and Khan are way too intelligent to look at their offseason additions — Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Patrick Queen, Donte Jackson, DeShon Elliott and a pair of receivers (Van Jefferson and Quez Watkins) — and conclude that adding players via the draft will be nothing but a luxury.

If they aren’t thirsty, they better do something about it.

There are two glaring holes on the roster — center and receiver — and right tackle jumps off the board as a potential first-round pick. The center and receiver markets have pretty much dried up in free agency, and both could become major issues if not addressed in the draft.

Hell, they might be major issues even if they are addressed in the draft. Yet that’s not how either Tomlin or Khan presented it Monday.

It is misinformation season, but the Steelers have historically stayed away from that routine.

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The Athletic's Robert Mays, Nate Tice and Dane Brugler bring you an extensive look at the top quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class. They dive into the film of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy. Plus, they also talk about Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Spencer Rattler and where they could land.

I couldn’t help but make this pick. I’ve made it before, more than a month ago. My reasoning hasn’t changed. The Eagles fielded the NFL’s second-worst passing defense in 2023. If they don’t make a significant offseason investment at cornerback, they likely 1) believe James Bradberry will bounce back after regressing last season, 2) have faith in unproven youngsters like Kelee Ringo, Eli Ricks and Isaiah Rodgers, and 3) have confidence that defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s system is better equipped to minimize explosive pass plays.

That’s too many unpredictable variables for me. Why not instead shore up the position with a premier player who seems to fit the “dog mentality” the Eagles say they’re looking for in a defender? DeJean is “one of the best tackling defensive backs in the class and shows playmaking skills in coverage,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote in “The Beast.” DeJean, who returned a punt for a touchdown in 2023, also has a knack for creating turnovers in a way the Eagles lacked last season. He totaled seven interceptions and three defensive touchdowns at Iowa.

But I should add that I tried not to make this pick. The Eagles firmly believe the foundation of their team is their offensive and defensive lines, and there’s still no certainty who they’ll play at right guard. Cam Jurgens will play center (among other blatant signs, the Eagles moved Jurgens into Kelce’s old locker). The organization must also consider a succession plan for All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson, who’s entering his age-34 season and is under contract through 2026.

That makes this draft cycle’s overabundance of offensive tackles particularly alluring. Brugler mocked Georgia’s Amarius Mims to the Eagles at No. 22. But I find myself disagreeing with the notion that there’s more value in letting an inexperienced albeit freakishly gifted athlete (who’s never played guard) make use of the organization’s developmental philosophy behind Johnson, when the same philosophy can be applied to DeJean. He could contribute immediately while benefitting from the mentorship of six-time Pro Bowler Darius Slay, who remains under contract through 2025.

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At the owners’ meetings, coach Matt Eberflus wanted everyone to know that pass-rush help could come from the inside as much as the outside.

“That the inside piece is also something that we should be looking at, and it’s important that we do that,” he said. “Direct line to the quarterback.”

If the Bears covet Texas' Byron Murphy as their future three-technique tackle, the best decision would be just taking him at No. 9 — not trading back and then hoping he’s there for you to take.

With Murphy, the question for the Bears is whether they’re OK looking past his less-than-ideal measurements. The Bears projected Gervon Dexter as a fit at three-technique and selected him in the second round last year. He’s 6-6 and 310 pounds with 32 1/4-inch arms. Murphy is 6-foot and 297 pounds with 32 3/8-inch arms. But Murphy’s lack of height can be an advantage against some linemen.

“With his disruptive energy, both as a pass rusher and versus the run, he projects as an impact starter who can play shaded nose or three-technique, similar to Grady Jarrett,” The Athletic's Dane Brugler wrote.

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I had planned on leading The Athletic’s annual NFL Draft confidential with the quarterback intel I’ve gathered; after all, this is the exact kind of quarterback crop that makes the draft so fascinating: star power, intrigue and a half-dozen potential first-rounders. But after speaking to more than a dozen NFL coaches and scouts over the past month, I needed to audible. That’s what I realized after several interesting conversations about the receivers.

I came away from the NFL Scouting Combine thinking that the two closest players to sure things were Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. and Washington’s Rome Odunze. In Harrison, you have the son of an NFL receiving great and the most complete of what has been a remarkable run of Buckeye star wideouts over the past decade — many of whom have shined in the NFL. I’d assumed he would be the No. 1 guy on everyone’s wide receivers board.

But apparently, that is not the case. At all.

Marvin Harrison, Rome Odunze … and Malik Nabers above them both

“(Harrison’s) not No. 1 to me,” said a veteran NFL receivers coach, whose team is in the market for another top receiver, and whom we’ll ID as WR Coach 1. “(LSU’s Malik) Nabers is the No. 1 on my list and I think he is on a lot of people’s lists. He’s just different to me. I don’t think it’s anything toward Marvin, it’s just really that Nabers is that good. His skills with the ball in his hands are really different. His acceleration is just different. His explosive is different. He tracks the ball really well. He’s a smaller guy but he can still play outside. He’s rare in a lot of ways. He’s got some Ja’Marr Chase in him, some DJ Moore skills. I hesitate to say this because Tyreek Hill’s speed is just so different from anybody in the league, but Nabers has some of that kind of burst and just so explosive off the line of scrimmage.

“He’s as fast as the person chasing him. He’s gonna run away from whoever. If Deion was chasing him, he’d go 4.21 or whatever. He’s the best WR prospect since Chase and on tape, I think he’s even more impressive. This dude is different.”

Another long-time NFL assistant, who has coached receivers and been an NFL offensive coordinator, agreed that Nabers was the top receiver prospect.

“It’s Nabers and then there’s a gap,” said Offensive Assistant 1. “He is the best wide receiver in the draft in a couple of years, maybe more. He is Tyreek Hill combined with both of those San Francisco guys (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). He is so explosive. He has a second gear. He can stop on a dime. He breaks tackles. You can’t jam him because he’s just too quick and if you miss at all, he’s gonna outrun you. He’s really competitive but he can be a pain in the ass. He’ll be the guy who’ll have something to say to the coordinator coming off the field. He’s got that edge to him where he doesn’t know when to let up. He doesn’t know that those guys are on his side.”

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North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye said he enjoyed the Washington Commanders’ unique approach to hosting NFL Draft prospects, which involved taking a large group — including Maye and a few of his quarterback peers — to Topgolf.

“It was one of the cooler visits I’ve been on,” Maye told the “This Is Football” podcast. “(We went to) a steak dinner spot and you’re surrounded with the head coach, GM and quarterback coaches. The Commanders took the approach of all of us being together and seeing how we interacted. I got the chance to swing the golf club a little bit.

“I enjoyed it. … I got to meet a lot of different guys throughout the process.”

Maye was among a group that included Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. Around 20 prospects were invited to the pre-draft event.

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SOMEWHERE IN AMERICA — Prospect X tightens his grip on his fork. His hand swallows up the frail utensil. He takes a deep breath and sighs it out, shaking his head back and forth to reset.

“Come on!” he shouts as he wills himself to take another giant bite.

The meat lover’s skillet normally comes with two eggs, but X ordered his with four extra. He’s a regular here at this small-town diner, and the waitress jokes he cleans out their fridge “ordering 25 eggs” each time he comes by.

The skillet is the second of three plates of food he absolutely has to put away for lunch. X has already polished off a massive two-patty burger topped with bleu cheese, bacon and another egg. He hit a wall halfway through the six-egg skillet with bacon, ham and sausage. He’s still got a Nutella and banana crepe taunting him on plate No. 3.

X’s tattooed biceps bulge out of a navy blue short-sleeve shirt baring the logo of an NFL team he recently visited. He’s always been a big eater — when he was out to eat with his parents around 8 or 9 years old, he cried at the prospect of ordering off the kid’s menu. “Two chicken fingers?” he says. “What’s that going to do for you?” — but he’s gained nearly 30 pounds this offseason in his quest to get ready for the league.

This kind of extreme eating is tough work. He’s up to 306 pounds, and while he’s training his body to hold that new weight, he has to keep eating. “My mom would be like, ‘Get a to-go box!'” he says. But giving up is not an option. “I know what my goal is, and 300-plus looks way prettier than 290.”

Sitting next to him in the diner booth is his roommate and best friend, his college team’s Australian punter. X offers him a bite of his skillet, and he takes a small forkful. “That was a little-ass bite, bro,” X says.

He fights through the rest of the skillet, sips water, stretches and cheers himself on again. The sweet crepe goes down relatively easily, and he takes a picture of his three spotless plates to send to some of the other prospects he’d trained with this winter — they couldn’t believe how much he’d eat.

He gets tired of eating like this, but this is what it takes when you’re a small-school prospect in a run-down town and the draft is just a week away.

I spent the last two months searching for the most overlooked prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. After canvassing scouts, tracking the results of pro day workouts, watching tape and strategizing like a general manager, I picked a player I believe is the draft’s best-kept secret: a small school prospect with no combine invite and no top-three all-star game appearance but a good shot to get drafted.

For each of the past five years, readers of this series have made their best guesses as to X’s identity, which will be revealed in a follow-up story after the draft. But for now — to allow him to be honest about the pre-draft process and for the sake of the NFL teams in pursuit — he is “Prospect X.”

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Dan Capuano’s funeral at St. Rita of Cascia High School on Chicago’s Southwest Side was standing-room only. Hundreds of firefighters from Chicago and around the country attended. Members of the St. Jude Knights youth hockey club were there, too, wearing their jerseys.

Capuano’s sons, Andrew and Nick, played for the Knights, a Northern Illinois Hockey League program that feeds many of Chicago’s powerhouse Catholic schools. Nick was on the 2012-13 team that won the Squirt A state championship.

Dan had devoted much of his time to the Knights before he died in the line of duty while fighting a warehouse fire on the South Side on Dec. 14, 2015.

That title-winning Knights team wanted to get back together to honor Capuano and his family, so in March 2016, a new team was formed. “Team Capuano” would play in the Shamrock Shuffle at the University of Notre Dame over a weekend. Their jerseys would be red and white and include Dan’s badge number: 1676.

There was an early hiccup. “The guy that was running the tournament, he didn’t want to let us in,” said Ralph Lawrence, a former St. Jude coach. “He said that the competition would be way too high.”

Team Capuano just wanted to play together again. It got in. Things got chippy. During one game, a hit from behind sent center Luke Lawrence, Ralph’s son, hard into the boards.

“Could have paralyzed him,” Ralph said. “It was a bad hit.”

That’s when 13-year-old wing J.J. McCarthy rushed in. The future five-star recruit, Michigan quarterback, national champion and soon-to-be NFL draft pick was livid. He didn’t drop his gloves, but a scrum ensued.

“It was a little cheap hit in the corner,” Luke said. “J.J. was the first one to me, come into the corner and exchange a few words with the kid.”

“J.J. went off on the kid and got kicked out of the game,” Ralph said.

The whole scene was unlike McCarthy. He was typically more collected on the ice — his father, Jim, one of the primary organizers of Team Capuano, didn’t like the outburst — but Luke was J.J.’s close friend, and the tournament was an emotional experience. And in hockey, leadership often involves going into the corners.

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The Baltimore Ravens have nine picks in Thursday's draft, including the 30th pick of the first round.

Here are their needs:

Offensive lineman: The cupboard is not bare as the Ravens could potentially have either Daniel Faalele or Patrick Mekari step in at right tackle, and they have several starting guard candidates, including Josh Jones, Andrew Vorhees, Ben Cleveland and Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu. However, it feels significant, particularly for an organization that constantly talks about the importance of building a big and physical offensive line, that Baltimore currently has three vacancies up front.

Edge rusher: Baltimore’s most established edge rusher is Odafe Oweh, a 2021 first-round pick who is a work-in-progress and has 13 sacks in three seasons. With the departure of Clowney, the release of Tyus Bowser and uncertainty about the return of veteran Kyle Van Noy, what the Ravens need is an established double-digit sack guy. But they’ll have their eyes on adding more young talent at outside linebacker, too.

Cornerback: Marlon Humphrey is coming off a disappointing injury-marred season, Brandon Stephens is entering a contract year and a few of Baltimore’s younger corners have yet to establish themselves. The Ravens believe in adding cornerbacks every year, but it’s a necessity rather than a luxury this offseason.

Wide receiver: Ravens decision-makers have talked about the continued development of Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman and the return of veteran Nelson Agholor. Yet, the depth chart is quite thin after them. Given the strength of this year’s receiver class, it’s hard to believe the Ravens would miss an opportunity to add to this group.

Safety: The Ravens love their starting duo of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton, but they don’t have an obvious No. 3 safety on the roster. That must be addressed, as Williams has struggled to remain healthy over the past two years.

It’s the 10-year anniversary.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ poor track record of making good picks early in the draft has become an annual talking point. The last draft class where they truly cashed in on their early-round selections came in 2014 when they took edge rusher Khalil Mack, quarterback Derek Carr and guard Gabe Jackson with their first three picks.

A decade later, the pressure is on for general manager Tom Telesco to end the proverbial drought. The hiring of head coach Antonio Pierce sent a wave of optimism through team headquarters and the fan base alike, but the on-the-field results will only continue to fall short unless the Raiders start to have much better success in the draft.

Signing defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was a major move and adding Gardner Minshew gave them an important safety net at quarterback, but the rest of the Raiders’ veteran additions so far this offseason have largely been complementary pieces. To take the step forward they want, the Raiders have to add some impact players through the draft.

The Raiders currently hold eight picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Their biggest positions of need are quarterback, guard, offensive tackle and cornerback. Tashan Reed and Vic Tafur teamed up to put together their final seven-round Raiders mock draft ahead of the start of the draft on Thursday. Here’s a breakdown of each pick they made.

Round 1, Pick 13: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo

Reed: Mitchell is a 6-foot, 195-pound ball-hawking cornerback with good speed, athleticism and awareness. He should be a Day 1 starter and would complete a starting cornerback unit featuring cornerback Jack Jones and nickelback Nate Hobbs.

Tafur: My guy Taliese Fuaga was gone in this mock and we didn’t like the value of quartertback Michael Penix Jr. at 13, so the only discussion was Mitchell or Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold. Mitchell is faster and Arnold is younger, though they both project as impact day-one starters. This is the Raiders, so we went with speed.

Continue reading for the rest of the mock draft.

The Cleveland Browns have spent big to assemble and retain a veteran roster. Later this week, the final two picks they gave the Houston Texans in the 2022 Deshaun Watson trade will be used. Next year, the Browns will have a first-round pick for the first time since 2021.

For now, they have six picks in this draft — but just two in the top 150. They’re slated to start their draft at No. 54 in the second round before picking again at No. 85 in the third. There’s not one pressing need, and there’s probably not an immediate starting spot available for a rookie added this weekend. But things change quickly, and Cleveland’s pick count might change, too, if general manager Andrew Berry decides to trade down. He also hasn’t made a second-round pick since 2021.

Who might the Browns be targeting? Which names are obvious fits? Which ones might be a little less obvious? As the draft draws closer, here’s how I view a working list of potential Browns picks. The key here is working. It will be updated throughout the first two days of the draft.

Dane Brugler, The Athletic’s draft guru, has his rankings and full scouting reports in his monstrous NFL Draft guide, “The Beast.” What’s here is based on Brugler’s research, the Browns’ past draft preferences, their current perceived needs and conversations with talent evaluators throughout the pre-draft season. Cleveland is in position to draft for the future.

These are best guesses. The Browns themselves aren’t going to know which direction their draft will head until Friday night. Will Berry trade down and look to add more picks? Is there a big surprise in store? Let’s get to the names.