Insiders mock draft: Colts trade back ... and it's a disaster

Instead of predicting the picks of Indianapolis and 31 other NFL teams, Colts Insiders Joel A. Erickson and Nate Atkins put together a different kind of mock draft, playing the role of the team's scouts and general manager Chris Ballard. ESPN’s draft simulator makes the rest of the picks, and when the Colts come on the clock, Erickson and Atkins weigh the options, then make the team's first four picks based on who's available at the time.

Erickson: This Indianapolis draft is intriguing. A year ago, the Colts held the No. 4 pick, the position they were picking was obvious and the only intrigue was which name they would call. Indianapolis holds the No. 15 pick this season, has a lot of young, developmental talent at several positions and some flexibility with the first-round pick, although cornerback and wide receiver are the clear, obvious needs. Even so, the hope has to be that a glut of talent in the top 10 ends up pushing down a premier player to the Colts, who have 19 to 21 players on their board with a first-round grade. When the offseason opened, Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard said the Colts need to get more explosive on offense and better at presenting explosive plays on defense. Those are the marching orders.

FIRST ROUND: 1. Caleb Williams, QB, Bears; 2. Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders; 3. Drake Maye, QB, Patriots; 4. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Cardinals; 5. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Vikings; 6. Malik Nabers, WR, Giants; 7. Joe Alt, T, Titans; 8. Dallas Turner, DE, Falcons; 9. Brock Bowers, TE, Bears; 10. Rome Odunze, WR, Jets; 11. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Chargers; 12. Terrion Arnold, CB, Broncos; 13. Taliese Fuaga, T, Raiders; 14. Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Saints.

Erickson: This is about as bad a scenario as it gets.

Atkins: Nightmarish. The Colts miss out on both of the top cornerbacks and Brock Bowers and Dallas Turner. I think this simulation could make the case for a trade up, but we know what’s more likely for this franchise is a trade back. But you can also argue that there’s a one-man Tier 2 at the wide receiver position and that guy is available: LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr.

Erickson: That is true. Thomas Jr. is plenty explosive. He stands 6-2, weighs 209 pounds, ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds and averaged 17.3 yards per catch in the SEC while scoring 17 touchdowns last year. There’s a lot to like there, although he was reportedly flagged for medicals by a few teams due to a shoulder injury, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer. Defensively, any interest in Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse or Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean?

Atkins: I like Jared Verse a good deal as a pure pass rusher with more tools and juice than what they currently have at either edge spot. He seems to have slipped in other mocks, so maybe he can be there with a trade down. Cooper DeJean feels like a good trade-down alternative to Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold but is a little rich of a pick at No. 15.

Erickson: A trade down feels like a distinct possibility in a situation like this. The “cloud” of players we were hoping to drop to 15 are all gone – Bowers, Turner, Mitchell, Arnold – and there is no obvious selection to me.

Atkins: Let’s trade down, because that’s exactly what Ballard has on his mind most of the time. The Rams are sitting there at No. 19, suddenly with picks at their disposal. They need to replace Aaron Donald somehow, and Byron Murphy is on the board. So let’s see if we can get one of their extra third-round picks to slide back four spots and see who is left.

Colts trade No. 15 pick to Rams for No. 19 pick, No. 83 pick

15. Byron Murphy, DT, Rams; 16. Graham Barton, C/G, Seahawks; 17. Jared Verse, DE, Jaguars; 18. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Bengals.

Erickson: This is a cautionary tale against trading down. The two players we were hoping would fall to us end up hearing their names called right before our new pick, leaving us scrambling a bit. Cincinnati taking Thomas Jr. is a surprise, but that’s the thing – there will be surprises in the real draft on Thursday night.

Atkins: That’s the opportunity cost to loading up on draft picks. This isn’t the best year for Day 2 selections either, though that’s Ballard’s wheelhouse and I feel like he’ll find some way to put it to use.

In this scenario, Cooper DeJean feels like the pick. He’s a phenom when it comes to Relative Athletic Score, which is a formula the Colts love to draft by that compares athletic testing for all prospects since 1987. DeJean is also from a major program and can help them inside and outside at cornerback, which is the weakest position on the team. Xavier Worthy is a little tempting, but I think it’s too early to dip into that tier of pass catcher.

Erickson: DeJean is a playmaker. He had three pick-sixes and five interceptions overall in 2022, and the Colts have long been looking for a cornerback with ball skills; defensive backs coach Ron Milus made it a priority last season. Plus, DeJean’s versatility gives the Colts a realistic option to move inside if Kenny Moore II is injured, a spot that has been lacking for years.

The pick: Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa

20. J.C. Latham, T, Steelers; 21. Troy Fautanu, T, Dolphins; 22. Laiatu Latu, DE, Eagles; 23. Adonai Mitchell, WR, Chargers; 24. Chop Robinson, DE, Cowboys; 25. Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Packers; 26. Amarius Mims, T, Buccaneers; 27. Tyler Guyton, T, Cardinals; 28. Xavier Worthy, WR, Bills.

Erickson: We tried to trade up to No. 25 to get Worthy, but the Packers wanted our second-rounder (No. 46), third-rounder (No. 82) and fourth-rounder (No. 117). We decided that was too rich for our blood, and three picks later, Buffalo takes Worthy. Letting the board come to us is very Colts-like, but it’s not working for us at all.

Atkins: Worthy was tempting because he answers the need for speed in the offense in the return game, but Ballard isn’t one to trade three picks for one at this juncture. He’s more likely to trust Shane Steichen to work with a variety of skill sets at receiver, so we’ll just let the picks roll.

29. Keon Coleman, WR, Lions; 30. Jordan Morgan, T, Ravens; 31. Nate Wiggins, CB, 49ers; 32. Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Chiefs. SECOND ROUND 33. Jackson Powers-Johnson, C,  Panthers; 34. Ladd McConkey, WR, Patriots; 35. Darius Robinson, DL, Cardinals; 36. Braden Fiske, DT, Commanders; 37. Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Chargers; 38. Roman Wilson, WR, Titans; 39. Junior Colson, LB, Panthers; 40. Michael Hall Jr., DT, Commanders; 41. Jaden Hicks, S, Packers; 42. Kris Jenkins, DT, Texans; 43. Ricky Pearsall, WR, Falcons; 44. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Raiders; 45. Kamari Lassiter, CB, Saints.

Erickson: Our first pick addressed the most uncertain position on the roster. Wide receiver remains a clear need. South Carolina’s Xavier Legette, Oregon’s Troy Franklin and Western Kentucky’s Malachi Corley are available. If we want to make a move at safety, Georgia’s Javon Bullard and Utah’s Cole Bishop are there, and Ballard praised the readiness of Bulldogs defensive players.

Atkins: I have a feeling with the lack of starpower at the top of the safety class, the Colts are more likely to give Nick Cross his chance at free safety than to draft something similar that high. I could be wrong, but I sense they want guys who no doubt have a role open to them with these early picks.

Erickson: Corley’s nickname in college was “YAC King,” but he ran the 40 in 4.56 seconds–Ballard likes speed–and he played almost exclusively out of the slot, where Indianapolis already has Josh Downs. Legette’s a polarizing prospect; the Gamecocks star had just one year of good production in five seasons, and there are concerns about his ability to create after the catch. The wide receiver class is deep, but Troy Franklin feels like a player that Steichen can use.

Atkins: That’s where Franklin seems most likely of an imperfect batch. He’s similar to Alec Pierce in some ways but does have an explosive profile. En route to hauling in 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns for Oregon last year, he ranks fourth in this receivers class in yards after catch per reception, fourth in explosive play rate and first in expected points added per route run.

The pick: Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon

47: Bo Nix, QB, Giants; 48. Patrick Paul, T, Jaguars; 49. Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Bengals; 50. Payton Wilson, LB, Eagles; 51. Malachi Corley, WR, Steelers; 52. Bralen Trice, DE, Rams; 53. Christian Jones, T, Eagles; 54. T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Browns; 55. Xavier Legette, WR, Dolphins; 56. Kingsley Suamatala, T, Cowboys; 57. Roger Rosengarten, T, Buccaneers; 58. Zach Frazier, C/G, Packers; 59. Chris Braswell, DE, Texans; 60. Marshawn Kneeland, DE, Bills; 61. Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Lions; 62. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Ravens; 63. Christian Haynes, C/G, 49ers; 64. Cooper Beebe, C/G, Chiefs. THIRD ROUND 65. DeWayne Carter, DT, Panthers; 66. Javon Baker, WR, Cardinals; 67. Andru Phillips, CB, Commanders; 68. Maason Smith, DT, Patriots; 69. Cade Stover, TE, Chargers; 70. Cam Hart, CB, Giants; 71. Mike Sainristil, CB, Cardinals; 72. Max Melton, CB, Jets; 73. Cole Bishop, S, Lions; 74. Blake Corum, RB, Falcons; 75. Dominick Puni, T, Bears; 76. Adisa Isaac, DE, Broncos; 77. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Raiders; 78. Javon Bullard, S, Commanders; 79. T.J. Tampa, CB, Falcons; 80. Brandon Dorius, DT, Bengals; 81. Brandon Coleman, C/G, Seahawks. 

Erickson: We have back-to-back picks now at No. 82 and No. 83. The spoils of our ill-fated trade back in the first.

Atkins: We have addressed the top two needs but that leaves us in a weird spot to make two picks after a significant drop-off in talent. It might be time to check off some smaller needs like running back, linebacker or backup edge rusher. But with a free third-round pick, we can also take a swing on a talented player and let life find a way, too.

Erickson: There are not a lot of players in this range with the athletic gifts the Colts typically prioritize in the draft. At least with the draft boards we are using. At the LEO position, Houston Christian’s Jalyx Hunt has elite athletic traits but played at a small school; Utah’s Jonah Elliss is coming off shoulder surgery but had 12 sacks last season.

Atkins: Both seem like interesting developmental swings, the types the Colts usually take on the edge. Granted, those usually have not worked. But they believe a lot in new defensive line coach Charlie Partridge to get the most out of athletic bodies, so I think this is the type of range where they’ll take one if they haven’t yet.

Erickson: Hunt is a bit more of a project. But he’s a better fit for the athletic profile Indianapolis has prioritized in the past, and Ballard loves the small-school players. Bet on the upside.

The pick: Jalyx Hunt, DE, Houston Christian

Atkins: Time to make a pick with the extra selection from the Rams that felt like a good idea at the time. With the caliber of players left at this spot, it feels like a depth pick is what is likely here. I think running back is a good possibility. It’d be nice to find a player with return skills at either wide receiver or cornerback.

Erickson: We already did! DeJean was an excellent return man at Iowa. But I think there’s a lot to be said for backup running back. The presence of Zack Moss ended up being important last season.

Atkins: I like Trey Benson from Florida State, and I think the Colts will, too. His RAS score is an outrageous 9.71 out of 10, thanks to 4.39-second speed at 6-0 and 215 pounds.

Erickson: Not a lot of things went the way we hoped in this scenario. But we gave Shane Steichen the explosive abilities he covets.

The pick: Trey Benson, RB, Florida State

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Insiders mock draft: Colts trade back ... and it's a disaster