US economic growth slows; Anglo American shares surge after BHP proposes £31.1bn takeover – as it happened

Time to wrap up… here’s today’s main stories:

Back in the UK, BP’s annual shareholder meeting was marred by protest which led to the arrest of four climate campaigners outside the event in Sunbury-on-Thames in Surrey.

The oil giant’s investors were accused by Fossil Free London of having “blood on [their] hands” after “profiting from the ongoing genocide in Gaza and climate breakdown”.

Joanna Warrington, a spokesperson for the group, which organised the disruption, said:

“Shareholders should be hiding their bloody hands in shame today, not lifting them to vote for more ecocide and genocide.”

Warrington said all attendees of the event faced “intense security”, led by around 60 security staff and police officers, which included obscuring phone cameras with stickers and placing phones in sealed bags. BP faced similar scenes at its AGM last year.

A BP spokesperson said:

“Our priority continues to be the safety and security of all attendees.”

The company added that it had “received overwhelming support” for the board’s resolutions from its shareholders, which reflects “the strong level of confidence they have in our strategy”.

The AGM was BP’s first since the board sacked former chief executive Bernard Looney over relationships with his colleagues last year. He has been replaced by former chief financial officer Murray Auchincloss.

As feared, Meta’s shares have slumped in early trading as investors show their unhappiness about Mark Zuckerberg’ AI spending spree.

Shares in Facebook’s parent company have dropped by over 15% to $418.28.

That knocks around $190bn off the company’s valuation, bringing it down from $1.25 trillion to $1.06 trillion.

The US economy performed below expectations in the first quarter, says Nathaniel Casey, investment strategist at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners, with today’s GDP report growth slowing:

Real GDP growing at 1.6% on an annualised basis represents the weakest quarterly gain for nearly two years. This figure was lower than the 2.4% expected by the consensus of economist forecasts and the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed, which estimated GDP at 2.7%.

Despite consumption remaining strong, inventory accumulation was subdued, subtracting 0.4 percentage points from the figure. However, if consumers keep spending and consumption remains strong, we expect this will increase during the coming quarters as businesses look to replenish stock. A narrowing in net exports took 0.9 percentage points off the headline figure, while government expenditure added 0.2 percentage points.

Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, suggests today’s data could well be revised in future:

“We knew the economy was weaning itself off government support, we just didn’t figure that would cause GDP to drop this quickly. With government spending down, and consumer spending moderating as Covid-era supports disappear, GDP fell below all estimates. But consumers continue to spend at a healthy rate, especially as evidenced by big spending on imports, which drove down the topline GDP number.

First quarter GDP is often squirrelly and heavily revised—just look at last year’s—so all-in-all this shouldn’t be taken as a fundamental downshift in the economy.”

Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, suggests the GDP report could dampen market optimism:

“Today’s figures show that the economy has grown less than what was expected. Robust economic data in areas such as manufacturing and the job market have set market predictions for GDP on an upward trajectory for the past few weeks, the numbers released today indicate that spectators may have jumped the gun with these estimates.

Looking ahead, we might expect to see these figures temper the bullish narrative that pushed the market to record highs in the first few months of this year. But for inflation, today’s report may be a more positive signal. High levels of economic activity also keep inflation elevated and to cut interest rates, the Fed is awaiting substantial evidence that inflation is trending lower. While today’s report might not be the full story that the Fed is looking for, it may be the prequel.”

Newsflash: Growth across the US economy has slowed sharply this year, suggesting high interest rates are weighing on the economy.

US GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, new data shows, meaning it only expanded by 0.4% in the quarter.

That’s a slowdown on the fourth quarter of 2023, when real GDP increased at 3.4% per year (or by 0.85% in the quarter).

It’s also weaker than the 2.4% annualised growth which analysts had expected.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis explains:

Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected decelerations in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending and a downturn in federal government spending.

These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in residential fixed investment. Imports accelerated.

Just in: South Africa’s minerals resources minister has voiced his opposition to BHP’s £31bn proposal to take over Anglo American.

Gwede Mantashe told the Financial Times he was not in favour of the bid because South Africa’s previous experience with BHP was “not positive”.

That’s a reference to BHP’s merger with South Africa’s Billiton in 2001, a deal that was later effectively unwound in 2014 when many of the assets were spun off.

More here.

Just in: Shareholders in the London Stock Exchange Group have approved the plan to potentially double the pay of CEO David Schwimmer, with only a small rebellion.

At today’s AGM, 88.99% of shares were cast in favour of approving the Directors’ Remuneration Policy, with 11.01% against.

Around 83.5% of shareholders took part, meaning some declined to give a view on whether Schwimmer’s maximum total yearly remuneration should rise to up to £13m (mostly dependent on hitting performance-related targets).

All other resolutions have been approved too.

UK retailers have long been warning that theft from their stores is increasing… and new data from the Office for National Statistics confirms the problem.

The ONS reports that shoplifting offences increased by 37% in 2023, to 430,104 offences, up from 315,040 in 2022.

That the highest figure since current police recording practices began for the year ending March 2003.

Last October, John Lewis chair Sharon White warned that “organised gangs” of shoplifters were targeting high-value items such as bottles of spirits.

The ONS also reports that there were 8.4m incidents of crime last year, similar to 2022.

But there were some annual changes in crime; fraud decreased by 16%, while criminal damage dropped 18%, but there was a 29% increase in computer misuse offences.

Eek. UK retailers have just gone through their worst April for sales since the pandemic lockdown four years ago, new data shows.

The CBI’s distributive trades survey, which tracks whether retailers reported higher or lower sales volumes, has fallen to -44, down from +2 in March.

The decline is probably related to the early timing of Easter this year, the CBI adds.

Here’s the details:

25 Apr 202405.58 EDT

AstraZeneca boss defends pay deal after results beat forecasts

Julia Kollewe

AstraZeneca’s boss has defended his pay package as necessary to ensure the company can attract a high-calibre successor one day, as he hailed “unprecedented” lung cancer trial results, and cancer treatments propelled sales at Britain’s biggest drugmaker higher.

Pascal Soriot, chief executive of the Anglo-Swedish pharma company, has come under fire for his potential £18.7m maximum pay package, which was recently approved despite a sizeable shareholder rebellion.

He told journalists:

“Of course, I am committed to this company. It really is about making the company competitive and attractive for my successor because I intend to be here for a while still but of course at some point there will be a successor, and our internal candidates but also external candidates will have to be offered a role that is attractive in itself but also compensated competitively.

We are not a UK domestic organisation, we are a UK-based global company. Most of our sales come from outside of this country… And this industry is a global industry and… a lot of the talent is based in the United States… The innovation in our industry is now more and more driven by the United States and China. Europe is unfortunately falling behind.”

The drugmaker beat analysts’ expectations with a 19% rise in total revenues in the first three months of the year to $12.7bn. Oncology drug sales grew by 26% while cardiovascular and metabolic treatments grew by 23%, respiratory drugs by 17% and rare disease treatments by 16%.

Soriot said recent trial results for Tagrisso and Imfinzi, two of its blockbuster cancer drugs, were “unprecedented in lung cancer”. Tagrisso showed “overwhelming efficacy” in a trial for non-small cell lung cancer in February while Imfinzi was the first and only immunotherapy treatment to show survival benefit in small cell lung cancer.

Soriot said that AstraZeneca is moving the weight loss pill it is developing with the Chinese company Eccogene into intermediate clinical trials. It is targeting people who want to lose a limited amount of weight (5-10% of body weight), as well as obese people who will receive a higher dose.

It intends to combine the GLP-1 drug, which aims to reduce appetite, with other drugs the firm is working on to help people lose weight and reduce the risk of heart disease.

Recent research from Morgan Stanley has shown that people using GLP-1 drugs such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro and Zepbound reduce their consumption of tobacco and alcohol – an added health benefit beyond weight loss.

The drugs have proved hugely popular with celebrities and others, despite their high price tag, and have brought in billions of dollars of revenues for Novo and Eli.

The London stock market rally continues, with the FTSE 100 hitting a new intraday record high of 8102.14 points this morning.

The 0.7% rally is being driven by Anglo American, and also relief at the strong results from AstraZeneca and Unilever this morning.

UK advertising spend reached £36.6bn in 2023 representing a real term contraction of 1.2% and underscoring the brutal advertising downturn in TV, regional media and magazine advertising, according to a new report.

The UK’s advertising market rose by 6.1% last year, but this equates to a 1.2% contraction in real terms after accounting for high inflation, according to the latest annual Advertising Association/WARC Expenditure analysis.

Advertising is seen as a bellwether of the economic climate and in the past year the sector has been buffeted as corporate clients cut back on spending. This has hit broadcasters such as ITV and Channel 4. Dame Carolyn McCall, chief executive of ITV last year said that the industry was in the “worst advertising recession since the global financial crisis.”

The AA/ WARC report found that TV advertising spend fell almost 9% dropping from £5.3bn in 2022 to £4.9bn last year. Advertising spend in magazine brands was also hit badly falling 9% from £553.8m in 2022 to £503.3m last year and in regional media brands it fell almost 10% from £505.2m in 2022 to £454.2m last year.

The report is more optimistic about 2024 forecasting that advertising spend will rise by 5.8% to reach £38.8bn in 2024.

Advertisers will be investing more in brand-building campaigns in 2024, the report says which will help an advertising recovery along with a number of high profile sporting events such as the Euro football championships in June, and the Paris Olympics in July along with the upcoming UK general election.

James McDonald, director of data, intelligence & forecasting at WARC, said:

“Our latest survey of media owners confirms 2023 as a challenging year for most, with few properties recording gains and spend instead further consolidating within search and online display formats– particularly social media.

“Our forecasts assume that the UK’s economy will begin to break from the pattern of stagnation that has come to define recent quarters. Easing inflation over the coming 18 months should encourage more favourable trading conditions within the advertising sector, facilitating growth across a broader range of channels in turn.”

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Interestingly, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that Anglo American is considering a sale of its diamond business De Beers.

The WSJ says Anglo has had discussions with potential buyers, in a separate process from BHP’s takeover bid.

It adds:

The London-listed company has held conversations in recent weeks with potential buyers, including luxury houses and Gulf sovereign-wealth funds, the people said. Anglo has signaled to potential suitors that it is open to offers, according to people familiar with the matter.

This plan wouldn’t appear to derail BHP’s ambitions, given it appears to be interested in Anglo’s copper production arm. Forbes are reporting that the De Beers diamond business is “certain to be sold” if the BHP deal goes through.

BHP Group’s pursuit of Anglo American has driven the UK’s blue-chip share index to a new alltime high.

The FTSE 100 has jumped by 58 points, or 0.7%, to hit 8098.14 points. That’s a new intraday high, for the third day in a row.

Anglo American (+13%) is the top riser on the FTSE 100, but it’s not the only factor pushing stocks higher.

It’s followed by pharmaceuticals group AstraZeneca, (+5.5%) which beat City forecasts for revenuees and profits this morning, including a 26% jump in oncology revenues.

In third place is Unilever (+4%), which has beaten sales forecasts for the first quarter and reported strong sales growth for its Dove, Knorr, Rexona and Sunsilk brands.

Then its Barclays (+3.4%), after reporting a 12% drop in profits which was less severe than expected.

Boom! Shares in Anglo American have surged by over 10% at the start of trading in London.

They’ve jumped by 13% to £24.96, up from £22.05 last night, as traders react to the news that BHP Group has proposed a £31.1bn takeover for its smaller rival.

As flagged at 7.55am, BHP says its offer values Anglo’s shares at £25.08.

Newsflash: BHP Group has confirmed that it made a takeover proposal for Anglo American.

In a statement to the City, BHP says it “notes the announcement by Anglo American” overnight, and confirms that it made its proposal just over a week ago, on 16th April.

The proposal value Anglo American’s share capital at £31.1bn, higher than its current market capitalisation of £29bn.

BHP insists the plan would deliver value for Anglo American shareholders.

It says:

The combination would bring together the strengths of BHP and Anglo American in an optimal structure. Anglo American would bring its assets and long-term growth potential. BHP would bring its higher margin cash generative assets and growth projects along with its larger free cash flows and stronger balance sheet.

The combined entity would have a leading portfolio of large, low-cost, long-life Tier 1 assets focused on iron ore and metallurgical coal and future facing commodities, including potash and copper. These would be expected to generate significant cash flows and the combined entity would have the financial capacity to support value adding growth projects at the optimal time, while continuing BHP’s commitment to shareholder returns.

As flagged earlier, the plan involves Anglo spinning off its platinum and iron ore interests first.

Shareholders would receive £4.86 worth of shares in Anglo Platinum, and £3.40 of Kumba Iron Ore, as well as 0.7097 BHP shares for each ordinary share in Anglo American they currently own.

BHP says the deal is worth £25.08 per Anglo American ordinary share, ahead of last night’s closing price of £22.05, and that it offers a 31% premium on the implied market value of Anglo American’s unlisted assets^.

BHP’s pursuit of Anglo comes on a busy morning for corporate news in London.

Barclays bank has reported a 12% drop in pre-tax profits for the last financial year.

The decline was partly due to lower income from deposits and mortgages, as higher interest rate weigh on business, and weaker income from investment banking.

C. S. Venkatakrishnan, Barclays CEO, says the bank is focused on executing the shake-up plan announced in February (which will cut costs and jobs), adding:

We have now announced the sale of our performing Italian mortgage book and are investing in our higher returning UK consumer businesses, including through the expected completion of the Tesco Bank acquisition in Q424.

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

There’s takeover excitement in the mining world this morning after Australia’s BHP made a takeover approach for smaller rival Anglo American

The deal, if completed, would be one of the largest in the sector for years, and create the world’s biggest copper miner.

Anglo confirmed overnight that it had received an “unsolicited, non-binding and highly conditional” all-share buyout proposal from BHP Group, which it is currently examining.

The proposal is conditional on Anglo first splitting off its South African platinum and iron ore units, suggesting BHP is primarily interested in Anglo’s copper resources.

Anglo says:

The Board is currently reviewing this proposal with its advisers. There can be no certainty that any offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made.

Pending any further announcements Anglo American shareholders should take no action. A further announcement will be made as and when appropriate.

Anglo had been seen as a potential takeover target since late last year, when it warned that production had been weaker than expected. Shares are down around 10% over the last 12 months.

BHP’s interest in acquiring Anglo raises fresh concerns about an exodus of UK firms from London.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains:

‘’The buyout offer from BHP, the world’s largest publicly listed miner, for Anglo American, won’t just shake up the mining industry, but will send a fresh chill through the City of London

There are concerns that if the deal goes through it could be the tip of the iceberg and more giants could leave the exchange. It comes hot on the heels of speculation that Shell might up sticks and leave for New York, rumours that Ocado may be considering leaving for the Big Apple, and follows the crushing disappointment of home-grown chip designer Arm choosing the Nasdaq over the FTSE 100.

The agenda

• 9am BST: European Central Bank’s economic bulletin

• 11am BST: CBI’s distributive trades survey of UK retailers

• 1.30pm BST: US GDP report for Q1 2024

• 3pm BST: US pending home sales data for March