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Money latest: Forecasts for interest rate cut have changed - as hopes for 3% next year dashed

Analysts are divided between June, August, September or even later for a first interest rate cut from 5.25%. Read their thoughts and all the rest of today's consumer and personal finance below - and listen to the latest Ian King Business Podcast as you scroll.

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PIP claimants could need to provide 'proof of diagnosis' letters

The government is planning to overhaul its Personal Independence Payment (PIP) scheme - and one proposal is to require claimants to provide a "proof of diagnosis" letter from a healthcare professional. 

Another measure includes scrapping the current eligibility criteria and replacing it with one based on what condition or disability someone has. 

People can claim PIP payments if they have a disability or medical condition that affects their ability to carry out daily tasks.

The standard rate is £72.65 a week, while the enhanced one is £108.55, and people can also get extra payments of £28.70 or £75.75 if they struggle with mobility.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is now proposing a claimant's eligibility would be based on their clinical diagnosis by a healthcare professional, rather than on an assessment. 

Charities and campaigners have warned this could risk some medical conditions no longer being eligible for PIP if they're not deemed long-term or severe enough. 

Here's everything you need to know about PIP and potential changes...

What is the Bank of England, why isn't it called the Bank of the UK, and how much is in its vaults?

Basically, the Bank of England is the UK's central bank.

It is different from a bank you would come across along the high street and does not hold accounts or make loans to the public.

The Bank issues bank notes that you spend and it also sets the official interest rates of the UK (otherwise known as the Bank/base rate), which directly influences savings and mortgages. 

It earned the nickname "the old lady of Threadneedle Street" back in the 1700s after a cartoon depicted then-prime minister William Pitt trying to "woo" the Bank - depicted as an old lady - for her gold reserves.

When did the Bank become independent? 

The Bank was founded in 1694 and was owned by various shareholders until it was nationalised in 1946.

It remains owned by the UK government today - but its decision-making was made independent by then-chancellor Gordon Brown in 1997 to increase confidence in the UK economy and stop politicians from influencing monetary policy for political or electoral reasons. 

What is the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee and who sits on it?

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the Bank rate.

This generally happens every six weeks, so eight times a year, and the next meeting is on Thursday - hence which we've made it this week's Basically.

The committee is made up of nine independent members who all have expertise in economics and monetary policy.

There are also external members that ensure the MPC benefits from thinking and expertise from outside of the Bank of England.

A representative from HM Treasury also sits with the MPC at its meetings. The Treasury member makes sure the MPC is briefed on government policies, but they are not allowed to vote.

Does the Bank have any other responsibilities?

  • The Bank produces £5, £10, £20 and £50 banknotes;
  • It guards the value of money by keeping prices stable;
  • It keeps the financial system stable by maintaining a close watch on any risks and taking action;
  • The Bank also regulates and supervises all the major banks, building societies, credit unions, insurers and investment firms.

Why is it called the Bank of England when it covers the whole UK?

Quite simply, it has never changed its name since it was founded. 

It was created in 1694 after a Scotsman named William Paterson realised the nation's finances had no real system of money or credit. 

Under his direction, a successful scheme was launched in which £1.2m was loaned to the government from funds raised by subscribers who were then incorporated into the governor and company of the Bank of England. 

The money was used to support the English government in its war against France. 

It wasn't until the 19th century that the Bank took on the role of central bank. 

What is in the Bank of England's vaults? 

About 400,000 bars of gold. 

These are worth more than £200bn, making the Bank of England the second-largest keeper of gold in the world - behind the New York Federal Reserve. 

The gold is kept in nine carefully guarded underground vaults. 

Each bar costs hundreds of thousands of pounds, although the value can go up and down. 

The Bank of England's customers - who include the UK government, banks and other governments around the world - can trade their gold bars with other customers. 

When a customer trades gold it doesn't usually move - instead the name of the owner will change on the Bank's system. 

Not many people are allowed to visit the vaults, but the King and the late Queen Elizabeth II have seen them. 

Has anyone ever stolen any gold from the Bank?

The Bank says no gold has been stolen from its vaults, but there was a lucky escape in 1836 after a sewer worker doing repair work accidentally discovered an old drain that ran directly below the gold vault. 

He sent anonymous letters to the directors of the Bank, saying he had access to their gold and offering to meet them in the vault at an hour of their choosing.

When the directors gathered one night in the vault, a noise was heard from beneath the floor and the man popped up through some of the floorboards. 

A stocktake was taken afterwards, and it became clear he had not taken any gold. 

The Bank then decided to reward the sewer worker for his honesty by giving him £800 - the equivalent of about £76,000 today. 

Read other entries in our Basically... series:

When will interest rates be cut?

The Bank of England will announce its latest base rate decision on Thursday lunchtime - but no one is expecting a cut from the current 5.25%.

It's widely thought rates have reached their peak - they've been at their highest level for 16 years since August.

But market forecasts for a June cut seem to have waned, with August or September now being priced in more heavily.

A feeling that inflation may not reach, or at least stay at, the 2% target through this year (and we've seen how inflation can prove stickier than expected with recent US figures) has led swap rates, which dictate how much it costs lenders to lend, to rise.

Thursday's decision

During March's meeting of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, only one of the nine members voted for a cut.

Steve Matthews, investment director at Canada Life Asset Management, doesn't see any movement from the majority eight this time - suggesting a cut isn't imminent.

"Looking ahead to Thursday... we expect an 8-1 vote in favour of no cut, with Swati Dhingra being the lone outlier. 

"While there's optimism within the Monetary Policy Committee that inflation will close in on the all-important 2% as the fuel effect falls out, the Bank of England will be deeply aware of the second-round inflation effect. 

"Rather than patting itself on the back when the 2% figure is hit, it will require clear evidence that inflation is under control rather than simply hitting a target."

High inflation is the reason rates have been elevated - squeezing people's finances and encouraging them to save tends to bring prices down.

Inflation is expected to have dropped significantly in April due to the fall in the energy price cap, and we'll get an announcement on this next Wednesday - but analysts fear it could rise again later this year.

Canada Life is of the view that this means we'll have to wait until August for a base rate cut.

Others think it could be later.

Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said "hopes are creeping back in about a summer interest rate cut, although September is still very much a possibility".

Some are more optimistic

Weaker employment figures in April add to the case for lower interest rates – more people looking for jobs means employers aren't under as much pressure to raise wages, which can be inflationary.

Another factor which means the BoE could drop rates before the US is that the UK has entered recession, so the committee may want to ease restrictions on the economy.

Andrew Goodwin, chief UK economist for Oxford Economics, said data on services inflation and private sector regular pay mean there is no hope for a May cut. As to whether it will even come in June or August, it's a "close call". 

However, the chair of HSBC has predicted the Bank will move in June.

Speaking at HSBC's annual general meeting today, Mark Tucker said he expected the European Central Bank and Bank of England to cut rates next month, both lowering by 150 basis points (to 3.75%) by the end of 2025.

The respect Capital Economics thinks 4% is more likely - while markets are leaning towards 4.5% come the end of next year.

Previous forecasts suggested rates could fall as low as 3% next year.

What has the Bank said?

Governor Andrew Bailey has repeatedly indicated that nothing is imminent.

"Inflation has continued to fall as expected. Cost pressures have eased, and the restrictive stance of monetary policy is working to bring inflation down. But we need to be sure that inflation will return all the way to our 2% target sustainably," he said in March. 

People prioritising Netflix and other TV subscriptions over going to restaurants

Spending on online subscriptions has jumped annually, boosted by series such as Baby Reindeer and Ripley.

While retail and fast-food spending contracted or remained the same over the past year, new data from Barclays noted a 10.6% increase in spending on digital content and subscriptions.

Two Netflix mini-series, Baby Reindeer and Ripley, helped drive the increase, according to Barclays. 

Continued concern about the cost of living, notably housing costs, meant spending in restaurants was down by 13% in April compared with the same period last year. 

Roughly half of the country said they were concerned about how much they spend on food and drink, according to Barclays.

Nearly 73% of people said they were actively looking for ways to reduce the cost of their weekly shop, while six in 10 shoppers said they had noticed supermarket products running out of stock. 

Despite this, 71% of people surveyed said they felt confident in their ability to manage their household finances. 

BP profits halve - so why aren't shares down?

By Sarah Taaffe-Maguire, business reporter

The record profits in the wake of the Ukraine invasion are clearly behind oil and gas giant BP with the news that profits nearly halved in the first three months of 2024. 

Due to oil refinery outages and lower gas prices, the London Stock Exchange listed company reported profit down 45% to $2.72bn (£2.17bn), compared with $4.96bn (£3.95bn) last year - an even worse performance than City of London analysts had been expecting. 

The good news for shareholders is continued dividends and a maintained share buyback programme - that is likely the reason the share price has fallen only 0.14% this morning.

Overall the most valuable companies of the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index were up 1.08%.

A barrel of Brent crude - the benchmark for oil prices - was $83.54, below recent highs.

On the currencies front £1 buys $1.254 and €1.16.

Bank launches £175 switching offer - only one on market

The bank switching market is back after a hiatus over the last couple of weeks - with First Direct relaunching its £175 incentive on current accounts.

There are no similar deals on the market, though last week Virgin Money launched a switch offer promising 10% interest on current account balances up to £1,000 for a year.

To qualify for the First Direct incentive you must:

  • Go through the full Current Account Switch Service (Cass) process
  • Transfer a £1,000 balance into the account
  • Switch at least two regular payments
  • Use their debit card at least five times within 30 days of the account opening

Chris Pitt, chief executive of First Direct, said the £175 offer "will only be around for a limited time only".

It's worth considering, especially if you're about to apply for a mortgage or credit, that opening a new bank account can temporarily impact your credit score.

Which banks gain most from switching?

According to figures from the Current Account Switch Service (CASS), Nationwide had a net gain of 163,363 account switchers between October and December last year.

Barclays and Lloyds Bank saw more modest net gains of 12,823 and 5,800 respectively, while the rest of the UK's big banks reported net losses.

NatWest and Halifax fared worst, losing over 40,000 more switchers each than they gained.

None of these banks currently have switch incentives.

Average house price will be £61,500 higher by 2028, analysis suggests

A new forecast suggests the average UK house price will be £61,500 higher in 2028.

Savills estate agent says the average value will increase by 21.6% from £285,000 in 2023 to £346,500 by 2028.

It says an improved medium-term economic outlook is behind the rise from its previous 17.9% forecast.

This year, Savills expects house prices to grow by 2.5% - rather than a 3% drop it predicted in early November.

The market remains sensitive to short-term fluctuations, it said, due to uncertainty over the timing of an interest rate cut and political uncertainty ahead of a general election.

Lucian Cook, head of residential research at Savills, said: "The outlook for 2024 has improved since our last (November 2023) forecasts as mortgage costs have nudged down slightly and are much less volatile.

"The outlook for economic growth has also slightly improved, pointing to relatively modest house price growth this year, with greater potential over the following few years."

He cautioned that wider global uncertainties have seen swap rates, which lenders use to price mortgages, rise.

He added: "Consequently, we are unlikely to see a further meaningful fall in mortgage rates this year, with the potential for short-term fluctuations in the cost of debt and house prices."

Savills used Oxford Economics and Nationwide Building Society data for its research. Its calculations were based on the second hand property market, so new build property values could perform differently.

Savills' predictions for regional house price growth over the five years to 2028:

  • North West, 28.8%
  • Yorkshire and the Humber, 28.2%
  • Wales, 26.4%
  • Scotland, 25.8%
  • North East, 25.2%
  • West Midlands, 23.4%
  • East Midlands, 22.8%
  • South West, 18.7%
  • South East, 18.2%
  • East of England, 18.1%
  • London, 14.2%
'We should charge more': Two-star chef justifies £320 tasting menu – as he teams up with Uber Eats for 'cheap' delivery option

For two days this week, Londoners will be able to try one of the world's best (and most expensive) tasting menus for a fraction of the price.

Ikoyi, which currently ranks 35 in the World's Best Restaurants, has teamed up with Uber Eats to offer a scaled back version of its £320 dinner.

Executive chef Jeremy Chan says the five-course delivery is probably the most "technical and refined" takeaway in the city, though some of the original dishes have been tweaked so they travel better.

To compensate for this, and for the trouble of having to fill up your own water after each sip, your bill will come in at a less eyewatering £60 per person.

But if you're thinking this venture is a concession to those who baulk at the price of Chan's two-Michelin starred menu (which comes in at almost £100 more than those at similarly lauded Core by Clare Smyth and The Ledbury)… it's not.

"I don't think people pay enough money for food, I think we charge too little, [but] we want to always be accessible to as many people as possible, we're always trying our best to do that," Chan tells the Money blog, before offering a detailed response to a (perhaps) hypothetical customer who wonders why a plate of fish is so expensive.

"You're paying the fishermen, you're paying for the person that's transporting it. You're paying for the logistics company, dry cleaning for the towels used to dry the fish, the paper towels that are being used to clean the guts of the fish, then waste disposal."

The fish then goes through a five-day aging process.

"We have three dry-ageing chambers that are used to store exceptional produce from very, very small producers and just the running costs of those alone [are very high]."

He goes on: "So, that single piece of fish has gone through many, many steps to go from fishermen to me, and you haven't even thought about the years of research and relationship building with the supplier. You can't just call a wholesaler and say, give me the turbot that Ikoyi is using."

All of which doesn't cover Chan's own work with the ingredients.

"I'm the one who peels the quail eggs. It's not just boiled, peeled and put on a plate... the owner of the restaurant is standing there for four hours perfectly peeling these quail eggs.

"Think about the time - that's the biggest cost in a restaurant that people don't think about, one's life, it's my life."

It's perhaps no surprise, in light of all the above, that Chan sees his collaboration with Uber Eats as a one-off.

On the menu is:

  • Mutton merguez sausage with a green goddess slaw
  • Fried chicken with smoked scotch bonnet and raspberry
  • Jollof rice and crab custard
  • Suya tamari pork with mustard greens and kumquat
  • Flower sugar cake with batak berry and Garigette strawberry

It's the second Michelin tie up for Uber Eats after its £200 two-person tasting menu offering from Ynyshir in Wales, which was named best UK restaurant in 2022 and 2023.

The food will be delivered by a regular rider/driver, so Chan and his team have had to put thought into the ingredients.

"Everything on the menu has been designed to retain heat.

"For instance, the Merguez is made with a beautiful aged mutton shoulder, which has such deep, intense flavour. I don't have to worry too much about the cooking temperature because it's so fatty.

"We're going to make a little note [for the customer] that says 'quickly flash in the pan to bring it back to life, and it will still taste great'.

"A radicchio is obviously hearty, so it's not going to break down.

"All the dishes, if people eat them cold, they are still going to be tasting nice and they're also structurally sound so they don't require assembly - we're making something that can just be eaten straight away out of the box."

The Ikoyi tasting menu is available in central London to Uber One customers on Friday and for everyone on Saturday, between 5-10pm.

Airline to pay millions after selling tickets for cancelled flights

Qantas is being forced to pay a £53m penalty along with £20m in compensation to passengers following a legal battle over tickets it sold for cancelled flights. 

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) sued Qantas last summer, alleging the airline had broken consumer law when it sold tickets for more than 8,000 flights without disclosing they had been cancelled. 

One case saw the airline selling tickets for a Sydney to San Francisco flight some 40 days after it had been cancelled, the ACCC said. 

More than 86,000 customers will share the compensation pot, and will be contacted over the next two months.

Gina Cass-Gottlieb, chair of the ACCC, said the airline's behaviour was "egregious and unacceptable".

"Many consumers will have made holiday, business and travel plans after booking on a phantom flight that had been cancelled," she said.

"We expect that this penalty, if accepted by the court, will send a strong deterrence message to other companies."

Qantas's chief executive Vanessa Hudsons said the agreement was a "step forward" to "restoring confidence" in the airline. 

She said the administrative failings were caused by COVID, and that the airline was "sincerely sorry".