BOSTON — Ilya Samsonov shrugged his shoulders and looked from side to side minutes after he’d finished allowing four goals on 23 shots in a 5-1 loss in Game 1 of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ first-round series against the Boston Bruins.
The Leafs goalie had no time for reflection.
“It doesn’t matter. Forget about this,” Samsonov said of the game.
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He continued by punching back and defending himself after allowing four goals and 11 goals in his two combined final regular-season outings.
“We’ve seen in the last three months what’s going on,” Samsonov said, undoubtedly referencing his strong play overall since returning from being waived on Dec. 31. “I believe in myself. I believe in my skill. I believe in everybody in this locker room. This is why I have confidence.”
Whether Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe shares the same amount of confidence in his play remains to be seen. Keefe remained mum on his starting goalie for Game 2, offering “no updates” when asked if he would return to Samsonov.
This isn’t necessarily out of character for Keefe, who has declined to provide information on the team’s goaltending choices in past playoff runs. The Leafs are now opting to lump all lineup-related updates together — as in, there won’t be any updates. It’s an effort to prevent even the slightest assumption or show even a glance of their cards to the opposition, sure. It also ensures speculation will continue to run long.
And that’s where we find ourselves when it comes to the Leafs goaltending choice for Game 2 and beyond.
Zoom in and Samsonov didn’t play terribly or even cost the Leafs Game 1. The onus of responsibility falls on their poor penalties and decision-making. Two of the goals Samsonov allowed came on the power play, though you could make a strong case the Leafs needed a save from him on the first of Jake DeBrusk’s two power-play goals in the second period.
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But zoom out and Samsonov still allowed four goals in a playoff series opener, just as he allowed six goals against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round in 2023 and four goals against the Florida Panthers in Round 2.
Samsonov’s recovery from a debilitating start to the season and demotion to the AHL (though he never played for the Marlies) should be applauded. He came back from the minors to play some of his best hockey as a Leaf when other goalies across the NHL have not.
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Yet when it’s mattered in the postseason, Samsonov’s results are concerning. He’s now started 10 playoff games for the Leafs and allowed three or more goals in seven of those games (one of those games saw him leave in the second period due to injury and not return).
Does that mean Keefe will quickly pull an about-face and turn away from Samsonov, who he boasted earlier this month as the “goalie of record to help us win the first playoff series in a really long time here in this city”?
That feels unlikely, given Keefe and the coaching staff appeared focused on getting Samsonov enough rest leading into the postseason in anticipation of plenty of starts. Samsonov is still the undisputed starting goalie, for now.
But with another four-goal outing in the postseason from Samsonov and with Joseph Woll having added to his resume with experience and strong starts compared to a year ago, it’s fair to assume Samsonov’s margin for error remains slim.
“Our job is to have two goaltenders thriving and to be ready to go,” Keefe said earlier this month.
Already down 1-0 to the Bruins, Keefe simply doesn’t have the luxury of time to waste should Samsonov give up four goals or more again early this series.
The Leafs have now lost five of six series-opening games in the playoffs under Keefe — but they’ve also won three of the games following those previous four losses.
And Samsonov’s ability to bounce back after a tough outing is part of what could instill confidence in Keefe and Leafs goaltending coach Curtis Sanford.
When considering Samsonov’s bounce-back ability, let’s start by giving him the benefit of the doubt and calling his three months of play before he was sent down to the AHL a wash. In his defence, Samsonov looks like a different and improved person and goalie since returning from his two-week reset.
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On Feb. 7, he allowed four goals against a Stanley Cup-favourite Dallas Stars team before rebounding in his next game and allowing just one goal against the St. Louis Blues.
Samsonov gave up five goals against the Vegas Golden Knights on Feb. 27 and then battled in his next game, stopping 32 of 35 shots against an elite New York Rangers side.
Things got ugly against the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers in mid-March as Samsonov allowed four goals against in back-to-back games, though he did face 40 shots against the Hurricanes.
After Samsonov gave up four goals against the Florida Panthers on April 1, he then had one of his better showings of the season in his next game, allowing just two goals against the Montreal Canadiens. Finally, while Samsonov allowed a total of 11 goals on 52 shots in his final two games of the regular season, it felt like the Leafs in front of him had begun to check out and were focused on the postseason.
Samsonov has played well enough against good teams. Gone too, at least for the most part, is the happy-go-lucky Samsonov with the cameras on. Instead, it feels like the Leafs staff have been turning Samsonov toward being more resolute, focused and hardened in the public eye.
So add it all up and there’s reason to feel good enough if you’re Keefe and the Leafs about going back to Samsonov in Game 2.
Should things go poorly for Samsonov beyond that, again, it’s fair to wonder.
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In his first full NHL campaign, Woll looked like he had claimed the starter’s job for good. He posted an impressive .916 save percentage through his first 15 games before suffering a high ankle sprain. Since coming back in late February, Woll hasn’t returned to his early season highs, with a .890 save percentage in 10 games. By the time he returned, Samsonov had recovered and won back the starter’s job.
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Consider that this is essentially the first time in Woll’s career that he is not the go-to goalie. He was named the starter as a freshman at Boston College and remained in that role for three years. Though the COVID-19 pandemic sent his time with the Marlies into disarray, he was still always the preferred goalie from the time he began with the AHL side.
But entering the playoffs, Woll was clearly the backup.
“I haven’t had the results that I would prefer. That’s always difficult to deal with no matter how much you try to focus on not prioritizing results,” Woll told The Athletic on April 12. “And just getting back into the swing of a season after having a couple of months off, it’s just different. In terms of rest, sleep, all these different things. The more time I have, the more I realize it’s all just (about) learning.”
So could Woll’s recent form impact how quickly Keefe’s trigger finger will be should Samsonov give up more goals against the Bruins?
For his part, behind the scenes, Woll has looked and sounded relaxed and confident in practice and around the team — at least enough to be able to jump in on a moment’s notice.
That’s what Woll did against the Panthers when Samsonov went down in Game 3 with injury. And Woll did so admirably, too, with a .941 save percentage in his final two games in the playoffs last year.
And so while Keefe will stay quiet on his goaltending plans for Game 2, and probably for the rest of the series, the recent history of his two goalies could very well be rattling around his head loudly.
Sergei Bobrovsky, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Carey Price — Keefe has seen these goalies steal games against his team and shift series in their favour.
For now, albeit quietly, he’s waiting to see if one of his goalies can do the same.
(Top photo of Jake DeBrusk scoring on Ilya Samsonov: Bob DeChiara / USA Today)
